Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Chan ◽  
Theodore Shepherd ◽  
Katie Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Singular Event ◽  
Climate Change Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts threaten water resources availability and incur significant environmental and socio-economic consequences. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify “storylines” of how a singular event with significant impacts could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways from plausible changes to its causal factors under present and future climate. This study uses the 2010-2012 UK drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought, as a basis, to create counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence and 3) climate change. Model simulations are performed using the GR4J hydrological model and drought characteristics for each counterfactual storyline is calculated using the Standardized Streamflow Index at multiple accumulation periods.</p><p>The storylines show that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010-2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought characteristics and the influence of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology, in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “three dry winter” scenario. Application of the UKCP18 projections at four global warming levels explore the impacts of the drought in a warmer world. Drought conditions of the storylines could have matched and exceeded that experienced in past severe droughts, especially for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.</p>

scholarly journals Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson C. H. Chan ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Katie A. Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel W. Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify storylines of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis, and analyses counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence, and 3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions, particularly for northern catchments at shorter time scales. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought conditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a three dry winter scenario. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–76) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–93) shows that for each storyline, drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

scholarly journals Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Aguayo ◽  
Jorge León-Muñoz ◽  
René Garreaud ◽  
Aldo Montecinos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Physicochemical Characteristics ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Southern Andes ◽  
Weap Model ◽  
Coastal System ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThe decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available.

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

scholarly journals From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 2483-2505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy J. Barker ◽  
Jamie Hannaford ◽  
Andrew Chiverton ◽  
Cecilia Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Propagation Characteristics ◽  
The South ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning (M & EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M & EW systems typically make use of drought indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but such indicators are not widely used in the UK. More generally, such tools have not been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the propagation from one to the other, using the SPI and the related Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), with the objective of improving understanding of the drought hazard in the UK. SPI and SSI time series were calculated for 121 near-natural catchments in the UK for accumulation periods of 1–24 months. From these time series, drought events were identified and for each event, the duration and severity were calculated. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was examined by cross-correlating the 1-month SSI with various SPI accumulation periods. Finally, the influence of climate and catchment properties on the hydrological drought characteristics and propagation was investigated. Results showed that at short accumulation periods meteorological drought characteristics showed little spatial variability, whilst hydrological drought characteristics showed fewer but longer and more severe droughts in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Propagation characteristics showed a similar spatial pattern with catchments underlain by productive aquifers, mostly in the south and east, having longer SPI accumulation periods strongly correlated with the 1-month SSI. For catchments in the north and west of the UK, which typically have little catchment storage, standard-period average annual rainfall was strongly correlated with hydrological drought and propagation characteristics. However, in the south and east, catchment properties describing storage (such as base flow index, the percentage of highly productive fractured rock and typical soil wetness) were more influential on hydrological drought characteristics. This knowledge forms a basis for more informed application of standardised indicators in the UK in the future, which could aid in the development of improved M & EW systems. Given the lack of studies applying standardised indicators to hydrological droughts, and the diversity of catchment types encompassed here, the findings could prove valuable for enhancing the hydrological aspects of drought M & EW systems in both the UK and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Drought Characteristics and Propagation in the Semiarid Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Ma ◽  
Lifeng Luo ◽  
Aizhong Ye ◽  
Qingyun Duan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

Abstract Meteorological and hydrological droughts can bring different socioeconomic impacts. In this study, we investigated meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics and propagation using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI), over the upstream and midstream of the Heihe River basin (UHRB and MHRB, respectively). The correlation analysis and cross-wavelet transform were adopted to explore the relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts in the basin. Three modeling experiments were performed to quantitatively understand how climate change and human activities influence hydrological drought and propagation. Results showed that meteorological drought characteristics presented little difference between UHRB and MHRB, while hydrological drought events are more frequent in the MHRB. In the UHRB, there were positive relationships between meteorological and hydrological droughts, whereas drought events became less frequent but longer when meteorological drought propagated into hydrological drought. Human activities have obviously changed the positive correlation to negative in the MHRB, especially during warm and irrigation seasons. The propagation time varied with seasonal climate characteristics and human activities, showing shorter values due to higher evapotranspiration, reservoir filling, and irrigation. Quantitative evaluation showed that climate change was inclined to increase streamflow and propagation time, contributing from −57% to 63%. However, more hydrological droughts and shorter propagation time were detected in the MHRB because human activities play a dominant role in water consumption with contribution rate greater than (−)89%. This study provides a basis for understanding the mechanism of hydrological drought and for the development of improved hydrological drought warning and forecasting system in the HRB.

scholarly journals Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1027 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Booth ◽  
Nick Bond ◽  
Peter Macreadie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Definitive Evidence ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms, which could have considerable ecological and economic consequences. Australian waters are hotspots for climate-induced environmental changes; here, we review these potential changes and their apparent and potential implications for freshwater, estuarine and marine fish. Our meta-analysis detected <300 papers globally on ‘fish’ and ‘range shifts’, with ~7% being from Australia. Of the Australian papers, only one study exhibited definitive evidence of climate-induced range shifts, with most studies focussing instead on future predictions. There was little consensus in the literature regarding the definition of ‘range’, largely because of populations having distributions that fluctuate regularly. For example, many marine populations have broad dispersal of offspring (causing vagrancy). Similarly, in freshwater and estuarine systems, regular environmental changes (e.g. seasonal, ENSO cycles – not related to climate change) cause expansion and contraction of populations, which confounds efforts to detect range ‘shifts’. We found that increases in water temperature, reduced freshwater flows and changes in ocean currents are likely to be the key drivers of climate-induced range shifts in Australian fishes. Although large-scale frequent and rigorous direct surveys of fishes across their entire distributional ranges, especially at range edges, will be essential to detect range shifts of fishes in response to climate change, we suggest careful co-opting of fisheries, museum and other regional databases as a potential, but imperfect alternative.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Madgwick ◽  
Jon S. West ◽  
Rodger P. White ◽  
Mikhail A. Semenov ◽  
James A. Townsend ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ear Blight ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change
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