An integrated decision-making approach for designing and selecting product concepts based on QFD and cumulative prospect theory

Navigation safety improving investment aims at mitigating risk and improving safety of shipping system, while decision-makers’ attitudes toward the uncertainty of shipping safety possess a characteristic of “bounded rationality.” To study the tendency of shipping safety investment decision-making with different risk perception and appetite, a decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed in this article. First, we extract the decision attributes through analyzing the factors affecting shipping safety investment. Then, according to cumulative prospect theory, the value function and the probability weighting function for calculating cumulative prospect values of shipping investment attributes are given. Under the risk-based multi-attribute group decision-making framework, linear programming model and projection method are introduced to aggregate the weights of attributes and decision-makers, respectively. Furthermore, through a case study, the proposed methodology is utilized in Three Gorges Dam area, and the desirable safety investment scheme is determined from a set of candidate alternatives. The case study shows not only validity and feasibility of the decision-making approach but also the mechanism of shipping safety investment decision-making with consideration of the behavior characteristics of decision-makers such as reference dependence, risk appetite distortion, and loss aversion.

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Research on Decision-Making Behavior of Discretionary Lane-Changing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Journal of Advanced Transportation ◽

10.1155/2020/1291342 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

Xueqin Long ◽

Liancai Zhang ◽

Shanshan Liu ◽

Jianjun Wang

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Prospect Theory ◽

Real Data ◽

Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽

Reference Points ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Lane Changing ◽

Actual Observation ◽

The Difference ◽

Lane Keeping

In this paper, the decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing is established using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Through analyzing the vehicles’ dynamic running states, safety spacing calculating approaches for discretionary lane-changing and lane-keeping have been put forward firstly. Then, based on CPT, a lane-changing decision model with accelerating space as its utility is proposed by estimating the difference between actual spacings and the safety spacings for discretionary lane-changing as well as lane-keeping. In order to calculate the utility of discretionary lane-changing, dynamic reference points and a parameter representing driver’s risk preference are introduced into the model. With the real data collected from an urban expressway, the distribution of discretionary lane-changing duration is analyzed, and the model parameters are also calibrated. Furthermore, the applicability of the model is evaluated by comparing with the actual observation and random unity model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out, that is, assessing the influence degree of each variable on the decision result. The study reveals that the CPT-based model can describe discretionary lane-changing behavior more accurately, which consider drivers’ risk-aversion during decision-making.

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Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiattribute Decision Making Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Dempster-Shafer Theory

Journal of Applied Mathematics ◽

10.1155/2014/279138 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Xihua Li ◽

Fuqiang Wang ◽

Xiaohong Chen

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Prospect Theory ◽

Value Function ◽

Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers ◽

Attribute Weight ◽

Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽

Dempster Shafer Theory ◽

Fuzzy Environment ◽

Shafer Theory

With respect to decision making problems under uncertainty, a trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy multiattribute decision making method based on cumulative prospect theory and Dempster-Shafer theory is developed. The proposed method reflects behavioral characteristics of decision makers, information fuzziness under uncertainty, and uncertain attribute weight information. Firstly, distance measurement and comparison rule of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to derive value function under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment. Secondly, the value function and decision weight function are used to calculate prospect values of attributes for each alternative. Then considering uncertain attribute weight information, Dempster-Shafer theory is used to aggregate prospect values for each alternative, and overall prospect values are obtained and thus the alternatives are sorted consequently. Finally, an illustrative example shows the feasibility of the proposed method.

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