Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals for the Parameters of the Two-Sample and Matched-Pair Combined Tests for Ranks and Normal Scores

Wall Street hedge fund manager Kim Meyer is considering investing in an SFA (slate financing arrangement) in Hollywood. Dave Griffith, a Hollywood producer, is pitching for the investment and has conducted a broad analysis of recent movie data to determine the important drivers of a movie’s success. In order to convince Meyer to invest in an SFA, Griffith must anticipate possible questions to maximize his persuasiveness.Students will analyze the factors driving a movie’s revenue using various statistical methods, including calculating point estimates, computing confidence intervals, conducting hypothesis tests, and developing regression models (in which they must both choose the relevant set of independent variables as well as determine an appropriate functional form for the regression equation). The case also requires the interpretation of the quantitative findings in the context of the application.

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Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-6816 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 58 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Vladimir Gertsik ◽

Mark Kelbert ◽

Anatoly Krichevets

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Decision Rule ◽

Random Fields ◽

Axiomatic Approach ◽

Earthquake Forecasting ◽

Alarm System ◽

Conditional Probabilities ◽

Mathematical Basis ◽

Strong Earthquakes ◽

Point Estimates

<div class="abstract"><div class="abstract_item"><p>The paper presents a decision rule forming a mathematical basis of earthquake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multicomponent random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting a multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different algorithms of earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. ‘Forecasting’ (the calculation of the probabilities) and ‘prediction’ (the alarm declaring) of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.</p></div></div>

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Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: Ramifications, Ruminations and Recommendations

South African Journal of Psychology ◽

10.1177/008124630503500101 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 35 (1) ◽

pp. 1-20 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

G. K. Huysamen

Keyword(s):

Sample Size ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Effect Size ◽

Null Hypothesis ◽

Significance Testing ◽

Population Parameter ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Size Estimates

Criticisms of traditional null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) became more pronounced during the 1960s and reached a climax during the past decade. Among others, NHST says nothing about the size of the population parameter of interest and its result is influenced by sample size. Estimation of confidence intervals around point estimates of the relevant parameters, model fitting and Bayesian statistics represent some major departures from conventional NHST. Testing non-nil null hypotheses, determining optimal sample size to uncover only substantively meaningful effect sizes and reporting effect-size estimates may be regarded as minor extensions of NHST. Although there seems to be growing support for the estimation of confidence intervals around point estimates of the relevant parameters, it is unlikely that NHST-based procedures will disappear in the near future. In the meantime, it is widely accepted that effect-size estimates should be reported as a mandatory adjunct to conventional NHST results.

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Finite Sampling Properties of the Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals of the RMSEA

Sociological Methods & Research ◽

10.1177/0049124103256130 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 32 (2) ◽

pp. 208-252 ◽

Cited By ~ 72

Author(s):

Patrick J. Curran ◽

Kenneth A. Bollen ◽

Feinian Chen ◽

Pamela Paxton ◽

James B. Kirby

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Finite Sampling

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Neck Pain Participant’s Perception of Traction Forces During Chiropractic Manual Cervical Distraction

Volume 2: Biomedical and Biotechnology ◽

10.1115/imece2012-85971 ◽

2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. Ram Gudavalli ◽

Charles N. R. Henderson ◽

Robert Vining ◽

Lynne Carber ◽

Avinash G. Patwardhan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Neck Pain ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Study Participant ◽

Graphical Analysis ◽

Motion Sensors ◽

Traction Forces ◽

Treatment Perceptions ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Force And Motion ◽

Analysis Point

In this exploratory study, we measured applied traction forces during a chiropractic manual cervical distraction procedure for each of three “treatment” perceptions; (i) beginning to feel a stretch, (ii) stretch feels like it could be a treatment, and (iii) stretch definitely feels like a treatment. A single trained clinician performed manual cervical distraction procedures on 10 neck pain participants using a commercially available table that was embedded with force and motion sensors. Participants were prone on the table while manual distraction was applied with gradually increasing force. When the specified perception was experienced, the study participant depressed a hand switch. Data was summarized with descriptive statistics and plotted for graphical analysis. Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the distractive force associated with each of the 3 treatment perceptions. Mean traction forces with 95% confidence intervals, corresponding to each of the 3 perception levels were: i) beginning to feel a stretch 18.6 N (11.9–25.2 N), ii) stretch feels like it could be a treatment 25.5 N (18.3–32.6 N), and iii) stretch definitely feels like a treatment 36.2 N (26.2–46.1 N).

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Inference for econometric modeling in antidumping, countervailing duty and safeguard investigations

World Trade Review ◽

10.1017/s147474560999005x ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 545-557 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

JAMES J. FETZER

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Econometric Models ◽

Econometric Modeling ◽

P Values ◽

Flexible Approach ◽

Fixed Level ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Level Of Confidence ◽

Significance Levels

AbstractThis paper examines how to make inferences from econometric models prepared for antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard investigations. Analysis of these models has typically entailed drawing inferences from point estimates that are significantly different from zero at a fixed level of confidence. This paper suggests a more flexible approach of drawing inferences using confidence intervals at various significance levels and reporting p-values for the relevant test of injury. Use of confidence intervals and p-values to identify insights and data patterns would have more impact on USITC trade remedy determinations than definitive conclusions about injury based on whether estimates are statistically significant.

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Agreement among High School Diving Judges

Perceptual and Motor Skills ◽

10.2466/pms.1982.55.1.3 ◽

1982 ◽

Vol 55 (1) ◽

pp. 3-7 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Michael J. Stewart ◽

William O. Blair

Keyword(s):

High School ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Intraclass Correlation ◽

Confidence Bounds ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Lower Confidence ◽

Relative Consistency ◽

Position Type ◽

Lower Confidence Bounds ◽

Actual Point

The analysis of aesthetic sports by a panel of judges has received some attention in past literature, but more studies have employed interclass correlations to arrive at judges' agreement or relative consistency. The purpose of this study was to determine raters' agreement and relative consistency of five male diving judges at the Kansas State Boys' Swimming and Diving Championships using intraclass correlation. Furthermore, one-sided confidence intervals were formed for analysis of sample variance. A total of 249 dives were performed and these dives were categorized into 16 position × type combinations for the analysis. Judges' variance was significant for 5 of the 16 type × position combinations. As expected divers' variance was significant for 14 of the 16 type × position combinations. Judges appeared to be somewhat consistent across dives but they were unable to agree upon the score of each dive. In other words the point estimates for consistency were generally greater than the point estimates for raters' agreement. Yet in neither case, consistency or raters' agreement, were lower confidence bounds impressively close to the actual point estimates.

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Is it Possible to Find a Good Point Estimate of a Calibrated Radiocarbon Date?

Radiocarbon ◽

10.1017/s0033822200042326 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 49 (2) ◽

pp. 393-401 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

Adam Michczyński

Keyword(s):

Computer Simulation ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Single Point ◽

Radiocarbon Date ◽

Point Estimate ◽

Local Mode ◽

True Value ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Good Point ◽

Accepted Practice

The result from probabilistic calibration of a radiocarbon date is given in the form of a probability density function. Consequently, reporting a 68% or 95% confidence interval has became a commonly accepted practice. However, many users of 14C dates still try to present the results of calibration as a single point. This manner of presentation is often applied during the construction of age-depth models due to its convenience and simplicity. In this paper, the author tests whether it is possible to find a good point estimate of a calibrated 14C date. The idea of the tests is to compare, using computer simulation, the true value of the calendar age with the age calculated based on the probabilistic calibration of the 14C date and the method of finding the point estimate. The test is carried out for the following point estimates: mode, median, average, the central point of the confidence intervals, and the local mode inside the confidence intervals. The results show that none of these may be considered as a good estimate.

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Combined Hepatocellular Cholangiocarcinomas; Analysis of a Large Database

Clinical medicine Pathology ◽

10.4137/cpath.s500 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

pp. CPath.S500 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Mitchell S. Wachtel ◽

Yan Zhang ◽

Tom Xu ◽

Maurizio Chiriva-Internati ◽

Eldo E Frezza

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Large Database ◽

Combined Tumor ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Asian Pacific ◽

Survival Patterns ◽

Distant Spread ◽

Combined Tumors

Aim Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (combined tumor) has been described as either a variant of hepatoma or a variant of cholangiocarcinoma. Prior studies evaluated fewer than 50 patients with combined tumors, precluding multivariate analyses. Posited was the notion that analysis of a large database would yield more definite answers. Methods This study used SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute) to analyze 282 combined tumors, 2,035 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas, and 19,336 hepatomas between the years 1973-2003. Multinomial logit regression calculated point estimates and 95% confidence intervals (c.i.) for relative risk (rr). Cox regression calculated point estimates and 95% confidence intervals (c.i.) for hazard ratios (ĥ). Results Men less often had cholangiocarcinomas than they had combined tumors (rr = 0.63, c.i. = 0.49-0.81). Hepatomas less often than combined tumors presented with distant spread (rr = 0.56, c.i. = 0.43-0.72). Men (rr = 1.50, c.i. = 1.17-1.93) and patients with a known Asian or Pacific birthplace (rr = 2.36, c.i. = 1.56-3.56) more often had hepatomas than they had combined tumors. Among patients not known to have an Asian/Pacific birthplace, a diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma (ĥ = 0.72, c.i. = 0.63-0.82) or hepatoma (ĥ = 0.75, c.i. = 0.66-0.86) provided a better prognosis than did a diagnosis of combined tumor. Conclusion Combined tumors differ from hepatomas and cholangiocarcinomas in terms of distribution and survival patterns in the population; they should be considered neither cholangiocarcinomas nor hepatomas.

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In Praise of Confidence Intervals

AEA Papers and Proceedings ◽

10.1257/pandp.20201059 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 110 ◽

pp. 55-60

Author(s):

David Romer

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Point Estimates ◽

Economic Interpretation

Most empirical papers in economics focus on two aspects of their results: whether the estimates are statistically significantly different from zero and the interpretation of the point estimates. This focus obscures important information about the implications of the results for economically interesting hypotheses about values of the parameters other than zero, and in some cases, about the strength of the evidence against values of zero. This limitation can be overcome by reporting confidence intervals for papers' main estimates and discussing their economic interpretation.

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