Does Emigration Hurt the Economy? Evidence from Lithuania

This study explores the economic impact of population emigration with special reference to the case of Lithuania. For this reason, we developed a SVAR model and applied related IRF and FEVD tools using quarterly data for the period of 2001-2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in emigration is related to lower unemployment. It is also found that the increased emigration is linked to higher real wage growth but with a lower confidence interval. Moreover, our estimates suggest that international out-migration increases real GDP growth in the short term, with no significant effects in the long run perspective. Finally, we found that most of the emigrants-to-be were inactive for a long term prior to departure, which offers a new look into the consequences of Lithuanian emigration, suggesting that the economic losses of emigration could be overstated. This study contributes to the knowledge about the impact of emigration on the economy and specifies directions for further studies in the field.

Identify Light-curve Signals with Deep Learning Based Object Detection Algorithm. I. Transit Detection

Deep learning techniques have been well explored in the transiting exoplanet field; however, previous work mainly focuses on classification and inspection. In this work, we develop a novel detection algorithm based on a well-proven object detection framework in the computer vision field. Through training the network on the light curves of the confirmed Kepler exoplanets, our model yields about 90% precision and recall for identifying transits with signal-to-noise ratio higher than 6 (set the confidence threshold to 0.6). Giving a slightly lower confidence threshold, recall can reach higher than 95%. We also transfer the trained model to the TESS data and obtain similar performance. The results of our algorithm match the intuition of the human visual perception and make it useful to find single-transiting candidates. Moreover, the parameters of the output bounding boxes can also help to find multiplanet systems. Our network and detection functions are implemented in the Deep-Transit toolkit, which is an open-source Python package hosted on Github and PyPI.

Fiducial Lower Confidence Limit of Reliability for a Power Distribution System

Reliability performance, especially the lower confidence limit of reliability, plays an important role in system risk and safety assessment. A good estimator of the lower confidence limit of system reliability can help engineers to make the right decisions. Based on the lifetime of the key component in a typical satellite intelligent power distribution system, the generalized fiducial method is adopted to estimate the lower confidence limit of the system reliability in this paper. First, the generalized pivotal quantity and the lower confidence limit of reliability for the key component are derived for the lifetimes of the exponential-type and Weibull-type components. Simulations show that the sample median is more appropriate than the sample mean when the lower confidence limit of reliability is estimated. Moreover, the lower confidence limit of reliability is obtained for the typical satellite intelligent power distribution system through the pseudo-lifetime data of the metallic oxide semiconductor field effect transistor. The lower confidence limit of reliability for this power distribution system at 15 years is 0.998, which meets the factory’s reliability requirement. Finally, through the comparison, a hot standby subsystem can be substituted with a cold standby subsystem to increase the lower confidence limit of the system reliability.

Community oncologists’ perceptions and utilization of large-panel genomic tumor testing

Purpose Large-panel genomic tumor testing (GTT) is an emerging technology with great promise but uncertain clinical value. Previous research has documented variability in academic oncologists’ perceptions and use of GTT, but little is known about community oncologists’ perceptions of GTT and how perceptions relate to clinicians' intentions to use GTT. Methods Community oncology physicians (N = 58) participating in a statewide initiative aimed at improving access to large-panel GTT completed surveys assessing their confidence in using GTT, attitudes regarding the value of GTT, perceptions of barriers to GTT implementation, and future intentions to use GTTs. Descriptive and multivariable regression analyses were conducted to characterize these perceptions and to explore the relationships between them. Results There was substantial variability in clinicians’ perceptions of GTT. Clinicians generally had moderate confidence in their ability to use GTT, but lower confidence in patients’ ability to understand test results and access targeted treatment. Clinicians had positive attitudes regarding the value of GTT. Clinicians’ future intentions to use GTT were associated with greater confidence in using GTT and greater perceived barriers to implementing GTT, but not with attitudes about the value of GTT. Conclusions Community oncologists’ perceptions of large-panel genomic tumor testing are variable, and their future intentions to use GTT are associated with both their confidence in and perceived barriers to its use, but not with their attitudes towards GTT. More research is needed to understand other factors that determine how oncologists perceive and use GTT in clinical practice.

Coverage Competence via Collaboration: Overcoming Political Journalism Challenges in Local Television

Recent national media surveys point to relatively high levels of public trust in local political reporting. The problem, however, is that challenges with reporter training and experience mean that local television is not as equipped as it might be to provide quality political coverage. We assess how professional journalists and college students majoring in political science or journalism view their reporting competences. We find mixed results, including lower confidence across all groups in performing data and statistical analysis. These results drive our recommended collaboration strategies for local television newsrooms and university departments to improve training and experiential opportunities.

Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress

We present an experimental protocol to examine the relationship between exogenously induced stress and confidence in a setting applicable to financial markets. Confidence will be measured by a prediction interval for a one period ahead price forecast, based on a series of 100 previous prices; narrower (wider) prediction intervals will be indicative of greater (lower) confidence. Stress will be induced using the Cold Pressor Arm Wrap, a variation of the Cold Pressor Test. Risk attitudes, and personality traits are also considered as mediating factors.

Analysis of the specificity of a COVID-19 antigen test in the Slovak mass testing program

Aims Mass antigen testing programs have been challenged because of an alleged insufficient specificity, leading to a large number of false positives. The objective of this study is to derive a lower bound of the specificity of the SD Biosensor Standard Q Ag-Test in large scale practical use. Methods Based on county data from the nationwide tests for SARS-CoV-2 in Slovakia between 31.10.–1.11. 2020 we calculate a lower confidence bound for the specificity. As positive test results were not systematically verified by PCR tests, we base the lower bound on a worst case assumption, assuming all positives to be false positives. Results 3,625,332 persons from 79 counties were tested. The lowest positivity rate was observed in the county of Rožňava where 100 out of 34307 (0.29%) tests were positive. This implies a test specificity of at least 99.6% (97.5% one-sided lower confidence bound, adjusted for multiplicity). Conclusion The obtained lower bound suggests a higher specificity compared to earlier studies in spite of the underlying worst case assumption and the application in a mass testing setting. The actual specificity is expected to exceed 99.6% if the prevalence in the respective regions was non-negligible at the time of testing. To our knowledge, this estimate constitutes the first bound obtained from large scale practical use of an antigen test.

429 National Evaluation of Confidence and Preparedness for Surgical Rotations in Medical Students and Foundation Year Doctors

Introduction Limited published and anecdotal evidence suggests foundation year (FY) doctors start their surgical rotations with lower confidence than medical rotations. This may be due to insufficient undergraduate practical teaching related to common surgical rotations. This study aimed to evaluate the confidence and preparedness for surgical rotations of medical students and FY doctors. Method An expert-validated questionnaire was distributed nationally to UK medical students and FY doctors. The primary outcome was confidence in completing common tasks during surgical rotations. Results 491 participants (84% medical students, 16% FYs) were recruited from 36 UK medical schools. 80% were likely to pursue a career in surgery however only 7% felt confident about starting a surgical FY job. 66% felt neutral or unsatisfied about the quality of medical school surgical teaching, and 80% indicated that placements did not prepare them well to manage common FY surgical tasks. The internal reliability of the questionnaire was high (=0.939). Conclusions Medical students and FY doctors lack confidence and preparation for surgical jobs. High-quality, practically grounded educational courses such as the National Surgical Teaching Society (NSTS) webinar curriculum could improve confidence and preparedness for surgical rotations. Further research evaluating the benefits of such courses is warranted.

Reburial potential and survivability of the striped venus clam (Chamelea gallina) in hydraulic dredge fisheries

The striped venus clam (Chamelea gallina) is the main edible bivalve living in Italian waters. According to Regulation (EU) 2020/2237, undersized specimens (total length of the shell, < 22 mm) must be returned to the sea. C. gallina specimens of different size classes that had undergone hydraulic dredging and mechanized sorting were analysed for reburial ability in a laboratory tank and for survivability in the laboratory (135 clams, 21 days) and at sea (320 clams, 15 days). In the tank experiments, the reburial times (T50 and T90) and the upper (+) and lower (−) confidence intervals (CIs) of the whole sample were about 4 h (CI+ 4.4, CI− 3.6) and 8 h (CI+ 8.2, CI− 7.7), respectively, and were significantly shorter for the medium-sized clams (22–24.9 mm) than for the smallest (< 21.9 mm) and the largest (> 25 mm) specimens. For the field survivability experiments, clams under and above the minimum conservation reference size were placed in separate metal cages. Survival rates were 94.8% and 96.2% respectively in the laboratory and at sea, without significant differences between the two experiments or among size classes. These findings conclusively demonstrate that C. gallina specimens returned to the sea have a very high survival probability and that they can contribute to mitigate the overexploitation of natural populations.