A Simulation Model Of Economic Growth Dynamics

1970 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 314-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl V. Swanson ◽  
Raymond J. Waldmann
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Growth Dynamics

Evaluating the impact of changes in human capital structure on Russia's economic growth dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-222
Author(s):  
Roman M. MEL'NIKOV ◽  
Valentina A. TESLENKO
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Academic Degree ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article explores the impact of changes in the educational structure of the employed population on the dynamics of economic growth. Objectives. The purpose is to evaluate the impact of changes in the share of employed persons, having secondary vocational and higher education, and researchers with academic degree on the growth rates of the Russian economy. Methods. The study employs the regression analysis of panel data of Russian regions, the specification with a quadratic dependence of economic growth rates on the share of employed persons, having the higher education and secondary vocational education. A fixed-effects model is used to analyze the short-term effects, the sustainability of results, and long-term effects, using the pool models and random effects models. Results. The increase in the share of researchers with academic degree has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, but only if adequate R&D funding is provided. The increase in the share of employed persons with higher education up to thirty percent is accompanied by an increase in the growth rate of real GRP in the long run, however, further expansion of higher education has no positive effect on economic growth. Conclusions. A powerful form of personnel training for Russian high-tech companies is a special model of ‘industrial postgraduate training’, which involves the collaboration of universities with industrial partners.

Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Khee Giap ◽  
Nguyen Le Phuong Anh ◽  
Ye Ye Denise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

Purpose Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both Singapore and Malaysia are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that necessitate a course-correction in order to sustain their growth momentum, going forward. In light of the renewed interest in understanding the growth constraints faced by the two countries, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs a novel empirical approach-the Geweke causality analysis-to investigate the causal drivers of economic growth in Singapore and Malaysia. Intuitively, the Geweke causality analysis helps us understand and measure the linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series variables. To that effect, we perform both a bi-variate as well as a multi-variate causality analysis. Findings The empirical results established using Geweke causality analysis suggest that Malaysia's new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector. The results also suggest that Singapore, on the other hand, should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth as the linear dependence between FDI and real GDP growth appears to be weaker compared to the linear dependence between the remaining variables and the real GDP growth. Originality/value While the traditional growth accounting framework provides useful insights at the aggregate level, there is a growing literature that discusses the importance of sectoral analysis to understand structural transformations in the economies which become important to sustain productivity growth in the long-run. This is immensely relevant in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, as well, especially with the changing policy focus in these countries to overcome structural growth issues. In light of this growing discussion on the importance of understanding the growth dynamics at the sectoral level, this paper presents new empirical evidence on the growth drivers in Singapore and Malaysia with a sectoral focus.

Economic Growth Dynamics And Short-Term External Debt In Thailand

2012 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector C. Butts ◽  
Ivor Mitchell ◽  
Albert Berkoh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals An Analysis of 2008 Global Crisis through Comparative Economic Performance on CIS and Baltic States

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savaş Erdoğan ◽  
Ahmet Ay ◽  
Mustafa Gerçeker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Trade Volume ◽  
Topsis Method ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The World

With the collapse of USSR in 1991 all countries declared their independence and started to integrated to the World Economy. Since then these countries have made so many effort to developing their economies. This effort exist through economic growth performance and significant improvement of growth dynamics. For these reason, it will be analysis comparatively countries performance through growth rates and growth dynamics. In this paper CIS and Baltic States, which is leaved from USSR, economic performance will be evaluate on economic growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate, foreign trade volume and FDI indicators etc. with TOPSIS method. This paper especially search on 2007 and 2008 crisis whether or not equally effect these countries economic performance.

scholarly journals Cointegration of Economic growth and External balance in Colombia: 1963-2016

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brayan Alexander Baron Ortegon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
External Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

In this paper is analyzed the relation between GDP growth and External balance in Colombia for the study period (1963-2016) by using a VECM. Supposing everything else unchanged, we conclude that Colombian external balance granger caused GDP growth and there was indeed a long run relation between both variables. This outcome helps to explain the Colombian GDP growth dynamics over the last fifty years and the impact of trade policy on economic growth.

scholarly journals Economic and Mathematical Modeling of the Direct Effects of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects on Developing Territories

2019 ◽  
pp. 78-89
Author(s):  
Olga Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Krasnodar Krai ◽  
The Impact

The problem of assessing the effects of infrastructure projects for territories is debatable. Modeling experience has been accumulated today, and elaborated macroeconomic models allow to identify causal relationships between the indicators of transport development and economic growth. The goal of this article is to define a simulation model of assessing the impact of transport projects on the economic growth of Krasnodar Krai exemplified by the Crimean Bridge project. The solution of this scientific problem requires taking into account different factors and complicated interrelationships within the framework of the regional social and economic system under consideration, using methods of system analysis and tools of economic and mathematical simulation. The simulation model reflects the scenario parameters of the capital management policy, highway transport freight turnover, highway transport freight turnover directly connected with the construction of Kerch Straight Bridge, carriage of goods by railway transport, carriage of goods by railway transport directly connected with the construction of Kerch Straight Bridge. The interrelations of this model’s parameters are established by the econometrics methods. In accordance with the produced scenarios the expected median values of the additional increment of the Krasnodar Krai GRP due to the increment of transportation associated with the Crimean Bridge operation are in the range between 0.97 % and 1.1 %. The most conservative scenario presumes the median value of 0.97 % and lower limit of 0.8 %. This tool can be used to assess the direct effect of railway and road construction for other Russian regions. The proposed simulation model will be further expanded by including further distribution functions of scenario variables and additional structural relationships.

Economic Survivability of Mississippi Rice Farms: A Deterministic Simulation Approach

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Salassi ◽  
Bobby R. Eddleman ◽  
James G. Hamill
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Financial Viability ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Deterministic Simulation ◽  
Delta Area ◽  
Representative Farms

AbstractThis study evaluates the economic survivability of rice farms in the Delta area of Mississippi. A general whole-farm simulation model, FLIPSIM V, is used to simulate the operations of representative rice farms over a 10-year period. Although farm size did not change for any of the representative farms considered, the financial structure of these farms changed considerably. Crop mix was found to cause significant differences in the economic growth and financial viability of rice farms in the region.

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