Export diversification, mean-reversion of exports, and stability of export–growth causality

Abstract Export superstars are important for export growth and diversification and are typically born large. Firm-level data on manufacturing trade from 32 developing countries show that the top five exporters account for on average nearly one-third of exports, 47 percent of export growth, and a third of the growth due to export diversification over a five-year period. Within countries and industries, export growth is positively correlated with the share of exports in the top five firms. Most of the top five exporters were already large five (or eight) years ago or are new firms; it is rare for these export superstars to emerge from the bottom half of the distribution of firm sizes. For countries where detailed data exist, superstars are producers, not traders, and are primarily foreign owned.

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Patterns of Export Diversification: Evidence from Pakistan

THE LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ◽

10.35536/lje.2014.v19.isp.a13 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 19 (Special Edition) ◽

pp. 307-326

Author(s):

Hamna Ahmed ◽

Naved Hamid

Keyword(s):

Structural Change ◽

Trade Liberalization ◽

World Trade ◽

Export Growth ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Export Diversification ◽

Product Concentration ◽

Historical Trends ◽

Export Sector ◽

Export Industries

This paper examines historical trends in the diversification of exports in Pakistan, using the Hirschman index to quantify the degree of export diversification. We analyze the structure of exports through the lens of ‘traditionality,’ for which we construct industry-specific, average cumulative export experience functions, i.e., a traditionality index of all 2-digit export industries in Pakistan from 1972 to 2012. This is useful in distinguishing between traditional and nontraditional export industries. We also study the degree of structural change in the export sector since 1972 by recalculating the traditionality index based on five-year interval periods. The cross-industry variance of this index is then used to calculate the structural change index. Periods for which the index values are low are interpreted as periods during which the export industries experienced uniform patterns of export growth (and thereby no structural change). Periods for which the index values are high are interpreted as periods during which the export industries experienced varied patterns of growth, thus undergoing structural change. Finally, we explore the determinants of structural change in exports by looking at variables such as GDP growth, export growth, the real exchange rate, the growth rate of world trade, trade liberalization, and the degree of product concentration in the country’s export base.

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Vietnamese growth will attract more investment

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db218434 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Market Reform ◽

Export Growth ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Export Diversification ◽

Content Type ◽

External Position ◽

Economic Outlook

Subject Vietnam economic outlook. Significance Vietnam's economy grew 6.2% last year, below the government’s 6.7% target, reflecting a severe drought, but still one of the world's fastest-growing economies. The expansion was supported by much faster export growth and higher foreign direct investment (FDI) than in the rest of East Asia. Policy has helped keep inflation and the currency reasonably stable while export diversification and trade liberalisation have improved the external position. Impacts More progress expanding the private sector and reforming state-owned enterprises would help Vietnam’s economic development. Vietnam’s dollar export growth has outpaced China and South-east Asia’s in recent years, and this will likely continue. The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal’s failure will likely mean less Vietnamese labour market reform.

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Atlas of economic complexity, Russian regional pages

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2018-6-71-91 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 71-91 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

I. L. Lyubimov ◽

M. V. Lysyuk ◽

M. A. Gvozdeva

Keyword(s):

Value Added ◽

Growth Strategy ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Export Diversification ◽

Russian Regions ◽

Economic Complexity ◽

Diversification Strategies ◽

Central Regions ◽

Per Capita ◽

Regions Of Russia

Well-established results indicate that export diversification might be a better growth strategy for an emerging economy as long as its GDP per capita level is smaller than an empirically defined threshold. As average incomes in Russian regions are likely to be far below the threshold, it might be important to estimate their diversification potential. The paper discusses the Atlas of economic complexity for Russian regions created to visualize regional export baskets, to estimate their complexity and evaluate regional export potential. The paper’s results are consistent with previous findings: the complexity of export is substantially higher and diversification potential is larger in western and central regions of Russia. Their export potential might become larger if western and central regions, first, try to join global value added chains and second, cooperate and develop joint diversification strategies. Northern and eastern regions are by contrast much less complex and their diversification potential is small.

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Intra-industry and inter-industry trade through the lens of comparative and absolute advantage

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2016-10-112-128 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 112-128

Author(s):

A. Gnidchenko

Keyword(s):

International Trade ◽

Product Quality ◽

Vital Role ◽

Increasing Returns ◽

Traditional View ◽

Export Diversification ◽

Industry Trade ◽

Long Time ◽

Absolute Advantage

The article surveys the literature that emphasizes the importance of comparative and absolute advantages for intra- and inter-industry trade. Two conclusions follow form the survey. First, unlike the traditional view, intra-industry trade is determined rather by technology than by increasing returns. Second, absolute advantages that have been ignored in international trade models for a long time play a vital role through their linkages with product quality and export diversification. We also discuss a new strand of literature that models international trade with the assumption of non-homothetic preferences.

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