scholarly journals The fundamentals in US presidential elections: Public opinion, the economy and incumbency in the 2004 presidential election

2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES E. CAMPBELL
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
2004 Presidential Election

scholarly journals Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Natalie Jackson ◽  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck ◽  
Charles Tien
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Level ◽  
Horse Race ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Probability Sampling ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Us Presidential Election

In recent US presidential elections, there has been considerable focus on how well public opinion can forecast the outcome, and 2016 proved no exception. Pollsters and poll aggregators regularly offered numbers on the horse-race, usually pointing to a Clinton victory, which failed to occur. We argue that these polling assessments of support were misleading for at least two reasons. First, Trump voters were sorely underestimated, especially at the state level of polling. Second, and more broadly, we suggest that excessive reliance on non-probability sampling was at work. Here we present evidence to support our contention, ending with a plea for consideration of other methods of election forecasting that are not based on vote intention polls.

Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 635-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Hibbs
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Objectively Measured ◽  
Foreign Wars

According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president.

scholarly journals PREDICTION FOR THE 2012 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-97
Author(s):  
Pankaj Sinha ◽  
Aastha Sharma Aastha Sharma ◽  
Harsh Vardhan Singh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Midterm Elections

This paper investigates the factors responsible for predicting 2012 U.S. Presidential election. Though contemporary discussions on Presidential election mention that unemployment rate will be a deciding factor in this election, it is found that unemployment rate is not significant for predicting the forthcoming Presidential election. Except GDP growth rate, various other economic factors like interest rate, inflation, public debt, change in oil and gold prices, budget deficit/surplus and exchange rate are also not significant for predicting the U.S. Presidential election outcome. Lewis-Beck and Rice (1982) proposed Gallup rating, obtained in June of the election year, as a significant indicator for forecasting the Presidential election. However, the present study finds that even though there exists a relationship between June Gallup rating and incumbent vote share in the Presidential election, the Gallup rating cannot be used as the sole indicator of the Presidential elections. Various other non-economic factors like scandals linked to the incumbent President and the performance of the two parties in the midterm elections are found to be significant. We study the influence of the above economic and non-economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. Presidential elections and develop a suitable regression model for predicting the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. The emergence of new non-economic factors reflects the changing dynamics of U.S. Presidential election outcomes. The proposed model forecasts that the Democrat candidate Mr. Barack Obama is likely to get a vote percentage between 51.818 % - 54.239 %, with 95% confidence interval.

scholarly journals From rock star to political star – curious case of Paweł Kukiz persona power

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Olczyk ◽  
Jacek Wasilewski
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Advertisements ◽  
Power Base ◽  
History Of ◽  
Tv Shows ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Political Success

The 2015 presidential election was a turning point in a history of celebritisation of politics in Poland. Rock vocalist Paweł Kukiz unexpectedly finished third with 20% of votes, the highest result of any celebrity–candidate in presidential elections. He achieved that, campaigning mostly on Facebook, without any significant power base and financial support. Kukiz set up his own political organisation, which gained a 9% backing in the parliamentary elections. He achieved that with no political platform, no media backing, and no party structure. We argue that his persona was a crucial asset in his political success. We will show how Kukiz created, managed and performed his persona, how he used it to mobilise three million voters and then to create and brand his “Kukiz’15 Movement.” Finally, we analyse limits, traps and contradictions of persona power. Analysed material includes Paweł Kukiz’s and his opponents’ Facebook posts, televised political advertisements, performances in celebrity TV shows and debates.

scholarly journals The Need for an Established Senate Rule on Election-Year and Lame Duck Session Supreme Court Nominations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jacob Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
American History ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Look Back ◽  
History Of ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Explicit Rule

In 2016, the Republican-held Senate refused to hold a hearing on President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, sparking outrage among the Democratic Party. Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell justified his party’s actions based on what became known as the “McConnell Rule.” This controversial rule holds that during years of presidential elections, when the president and the Senate majority are of different parties, the Senate is not expected to confirm the president’s Supreme Court nominees; but, when the president and Senate majority are of the same party, vacancies may be filled. When the Senate applied this rule in 2020, the stakes were even higher. Revered liberal stalwart Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away only 46 days before the 2020 presidential election. Invoking the McConnell Rule, the Republican-held Senate moved forward with the confirmation of President Trump’s nominee Amy Coney Barrett. This contentious move again infuriated Democrats, and the presidential campaign. Now that Justice Barrett has been appointed and the presidential election has passed, it is useful to look back on the history of Supreme Court nominations during presidential election years. Such a review suggests that the so-called McConnell Rule is rooted in valid historical precedent. In fact, viewed in light of American history, even a Trump lame duck nomination and confirmation would have been valid. This blog post argues that the Senate should distill this historical precedent into an explicit Rule of the Senate that will govern the chamber going forward. The rule should obligate the Senate to either (1) hold a vote to confirm the election-year or lame duck nominee, or (2) hold a vote to postpone action on the nomination. If a vote to postpone action on the nomination fails, the rule should then compel the Senate to hold a vote to confirm the nominee. Such a rule removes all doubt about the Senate’s authority to act or refuse to act on election-year and lame duck nominees, exposes unfounded threats of retaliation by minority parties, and best conforms to the Constitution.

scholarly journals The Role of Nusantara Task Force in Preventing Political Vulnerability in Pati Police Jurisdiction

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-478
Author(s):  
Arindra Wigrha Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Role Theory ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Police Chief ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
General Elections ◽  
National Police ◽  
Force Concept

Political insecurity ahead of the 2019 presidential and vice presidential election candidates often arises in the Pati Police jurisdiction. The establishment of this task force aims to minimize the occurrence of various political vulnerabilities ahead of the presidential and vice presidential elections so as not to develop into social conflict. The purpose of this study is to analyze the problems of political vulnerability that existed during the 2019 Presidential Election in the Pati Police jurisdiction, describe and explain the role of the Nusantara Task Force in preventing the occurrence of problems of political vulnerability that existed during the 2019 Presidential Election in the Pati Police area, and analyze the factors factors influencing the implementation of the Task Force of the Archipelago in preventing the occurrence of problems of political insecurity that existed during the 2019 Presidential Election in the Pati Police jurisdiction. Theories used in this research are the Role Theory and Voter Behavior Theory. The concept used is the Nusantara Task Force Concept. The laws and regulations in this study are Law No. 2 of 2002 concerning the National Police and the Law. No. 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections, as well as National Police Chief Sprin No. .: Sprin / 40 / I / 2018 Date January 8, 2018 About the Establishment of the Task Force Nusantara.

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