Earthquake disaster risk index for Canadian cities using Bayesian belief networks

Author(s):  
G. Cockburn ◽  
S. Tesfamariam
1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Davidson

The Earthquake Disaster Risk Index (EDRI) is a composite index that will allow direct comparison of the relative overall earthquake disaster risk of cities worldwide, and will describe the relative contributions of various factors to that overall risk. The basic development of the EDRI involves (1) creating a conceptual framework of all the factors that contribute to earthquake disaster risk—geological, engineering, economic, social, political, and cultural factors; (2) identifying simple, measurable indicators to represent each of the factors in the framework; (3) combining the indicators mathematically into the composite EDRI; and (4) presenting the results in an easily understandable form. The index is being created using a holistic, multidisciplinary approach that aims to synthesize knowledge of urban earthquake disaster risk into a concise, easily accessible summary that is currently unavailable from any other source.


2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Melki Adi Kurniawan ◽  
Komang Ngurah Suarbawa ◽  
Ardhianto Septiadhi

An investigation of risk identification earthquake disaster in Nusa Tenggara Barat by three factors: the danger factor of earthquakes is Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA), vulnerability factor is population density by district, as well as the capasity factors are HDI (Human Development Index) by district in the province of West Nusa Tenggara has be done. PGA value calculation was performed using the attenuation function Fukushima and Tanaka with earthquake parameter data from 1970 - 2014 with the criteria of magnitude ? 4.5mB, depth ? 60 km and the epicenter in the range of 7.5o - 12o and 115o-120o BT and  for disaster risk index calculation earthquake using AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process). From the calculation of the obtained regions with earthquake disaster risk levels are highest are southern Dompu, Mataram, Bima, northern Bima Regency while the lowest West Sumbawa regency and southern Sumbawa regency.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 95-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.N. Barton ◽  
T. Saloranta ◽  
T.H. Bakken ◽  
A. Lyche Solheim ◽  
J. Moe ◽  
...  

The evaluation of water bodies “at risk” of not achieving the Water Framework Directive's (WFD) goal of “good status” begs the question of how big a risk is acceptable before a programme of measures should be implemented. Documentation of expert judgement and statistical uncertainty in pollution budgets and water quality modelling, combined with Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian belief networks, make it possible to give a probabilistic interpretation of “at risk”. Combined with information on abatement costs, a cost-effective ranking of measures based on expected costs and effect can be undertaken. Combined with economic valuation of water quality, the definition of “disproportionate cost” of abatement measures compared to benefits of achieving “good status” can also be given a probabilistic interpretation. Explicit modelling of uncertainty helps visualize where research and consulting efforts are most critical for reducing uncertainty. Based on data from the Morsa catchment in South-Eastern Norway, this paper discusses the relative merits of using Bayesian belief networks when integrating biophysical modelling results in the benefit-cost analysis of derogations and cost-effectiveness ranking of abatement measures under the WFD.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Karimi ◽  
Jim A. Harris ◽  
Ron Corstanje

Abstract Context Landscape connectivity is assumed to influence ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies. However, empirical studies of the effect of landscape connectivity on ES trade-offs and synergies are limited, especially in urban areas where the interactions between patterns and processes are complex. Objectives The objectives of this study were to use a Bayesian Belief Network approach to (1) assess whether functional connectivity drives ES trade-offs and synergies in urban areas and (2) assess the influence of connectivity on the supply of ESs. Methods We used circuit theory to model urban bird flow of P. major and C. caeruleus at a 2 m spatial resolution in Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes, UK, and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to assess the sensitivity of ES trade-offs and synergies model outputs to landscape and patch structural characteristics (patch area, connectivity and bird species abundance). Results We found that functional connectivity was the most influential variable in determining two of three ES trade-offs and synergies. Patch area and connectivity exerted a strong influence on ES trade-offs and synergies. Low patch area and low to moderately low connectivity were associated with high levels of ES trade-offs and synergies. Conclusions This study demonstrates that landscape connectivity is an influential determinant of ES trade-offs and synergies and supports the conviction that larger and better-connected habitat patches increase ES provision. A BBN approach is proposed as a feasible method of ES trade-off and synergy prediction in complex landscapes. Our findings can prove to be informative for urban ES management.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 2281-2291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fateme Fahiman ◽  
Steven Disano ◽  
Sarah Monazam Erfani ◽  
Pierluigi Mancarella ◽  
Christopher Leckie

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