scholarly journals Understanding the outbreak of COVID-19 in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Vol 2090 (1) ◽  
pp. 012018
Author(s):  
Talia Tene ◽  
Marco Guevara ◽  
Jiří Svozilík ◽  
Cristian Vacacela Gomez
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Behavior ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Rate Coefficient ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
State Health ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract In this study is presented a mathematical approach that can be used to estimate the variability of the growth rate coefficient (λ), the total number of cases, and the midpoint of maximum infection due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The different parameters are quantified using one-year data set reported for Ecuador (from March 2020 to February 2021) and the (discrete or differential) logistic model. In particular, the results evidence that the most critical months of the pandemic in Ecuador were March and April 2020. In the following months, the outbreak continues with low growth rate values but in a variable way, which can be attributed to state health policies and the social behavior of the population. The estimated number of confirmed cases is around 409 K agrees with the data reported at the end of May 2021, validating the proposed mathematical approach.

scholarly journals Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Ecuador Using the Logistic Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 105-118
Author(s):  
Talia Tene ◽  
Marco Guevara ◽  
Jiří Svozilík ◽  
Richard Tene-Fernandez ◽  
Cristian Vacacela Gomez
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
Infected People ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Long Term Prediction

At the end of 2019, the COVID-19 disease emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, and caused an outbreak of unusual viral pneumonia. Being highly transmissible, this novel coronavirus disease has spread fast all over the world. COVID-19 continues to challenge most developed countries in the search for an effective strategy to either prevent infection or to avoid the spreading of the disease. While several developed countries have managed to contain COVID-19, several countries in Latin America continue to report an increase in the daily number of infected people. Ecuador, particularly, became the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the region during March and April 2020. In this context, the present study shows a simple mathematical approach to understand the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ecuador (and some Latin American countries such as Brazil, Peru, and Colombia). The proposed method is based on the exponential model, discrete logistic equation, and differential logistic model using one-year data from March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021. This study presents the estimated growth rate coefficient (λ), the total number of cases (N), and the midpoint of maximum infection (t_0) as well as the variability of the λ coefficient as a function of total cases and time. The exponential model shows a high value of λ=0.185 which decreases to λ=0.014 and λ=0.056 according to the discrete and differential logistic models, respectively. An accurate value of the total number of cases of infected people was found by analyzing the number of daily cases as a function of the total of cases whose value (N~409 K) agrees with the data reported at the end of May 2021, validating the proposed approach. How to use the current mathematical approach for long-term prediction is also discussed here. Most importantly, the proposed method has two important characteristics: (i) the mathematical model is as simple as possible compared to other time-consuming approaches, and (ii) it can be used to study the effect of COVID-19 and predicts its consequences in other countries, allowing revenue new decisions against the COVID-19 disease. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-09 Full Text: PDF

The social wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) population dynamics in England over 39 years.

2018 ◽  
Vol 154 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-155
Author(s):  
Michael Archer
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Dynamic ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Social Wasp ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Vespula Germanica ◽  
The Social ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Suction Traps

1. Yearly records of worker Vespula germanica (Fabricius) taken in suction traps at Silwood Park (28 years) and at Rothamsted Research (39 years) are examined. 2. Using the autocorrelation function (ACF), a significant negative 1-year lag followed by a lesser non-significant positive 2-year lag was found in all, or parts of, each data set, indicating an underlying population dynamic of a 2-year cycle with a damped waveform. 3. The minimum number of years before the 2-year cycle with damped waveform was shown varied between 17 and 26, or was not found in some data sets. 4. Ecological factors delaying or preventing the occurrence of the 2-year cycle are considered.

A stranger in the family? On the social behavior of a leucistic collared peccary (Pecari tajacu) with pigmented conspecifics

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-305
Author(s):  
Valdir Leite da Silva ◽  
José Cândido ◽  
José Nelson Campanha ◽  
Doraci R. de Oliveira ◽  
Carla Gheler-Costa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Behavior ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Family ◽  
Pecari Tajacu ◽  
Collared Peccary

scholarly journals Has the Credibility of the Social Sciences Been Credibly Destroyed? Reanalyzing the “Many Analysts, One Data Set” Project

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 237802312110244
Author(s):  
Katrin Auspurg ◽  
Josef Brüderl
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Causal Reasoning ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Skin Tone ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Many ◽  
Definition Of

In 2018, Silberzahn, Uhlmann, Nosek, and colleagues published an article in which 29 teams analyzed the same research question with the same data: Are soccer referees more likely to give red cards to players with dark skin tone than light skin tone? The results obtained by the teams differed extensively. Many concluded from this widely noted exercise that the social sciences are not rigorous enough to provide definitive answers. In this article, we investigate why results diverged so much. We argue that the main reason was an unclear research question: Teams differed in their interpretation of the research question and therefore used diverse research designs and model specifications. We show by reanalyzing the data that with a clear research question, a precise definition of the parameter of interest, and theory-guided causal reasoning, results vary only within a narrow range. The broad conclusion of our reanalysis is that social science research needs to be more precise in its “estimands” to become credible.

State health policies and interest in PrEP: evidence from Google Trends

AIDS Care ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Bita Fayaz Farkhad ◽  
Mohammadreza Nazari ◽  
Man-pui Sally Chan ◽  
Dolores Albarracín
Keyword(s):  
Google Trends ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
State Health

scholarly journals Dynamical system of the growth of COVID-19 with controller

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabha W. Ibrahim ◽  
Dania Altulea ◽  
Rafida M. Elobaid
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Dynamic System ◽  
Unique Solution ◽  
Population Dynamic ◽  
Integral Control ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Separation ◽  
Strong Control

AbstractRecently, various studied were presented to describe the population dynamic of covid-19. In this effort, we aim to introduce a different vitalization of the growth by using a controller term. Our method is based on the concept of conformable calculus, which involves this term. We investigate a system of coupled differential equations, which contains the dynamics of the diffusion among infected and asymptomatic characters. Strong control is considered due to the social separation. The result is consequently associated with a macroscopic law for the population. This dynamic system is useful to recognize the behavior of the growth rate of the infection and to confirm if its control is correctly functioning. A unique solution is studied under self-mapping properties. The periodicity of the solution is examined by using integral control and the optimal control is discussed in the sequel.

scholarly journals Pharmacological modulation of AMPA receptors rescues specific impairments in social behavior associated with the A350V Iqsec2 mutation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renad Jabarin ◽  
Nina Levy ◽  
Yasmin Abergel ◽  
Joshua H. Berman ◽  
Amir Zag ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Behavior ◽  
Ampa Receptors ◽  
Emotional State ◽  
Social Discrimination ◽  
Glutamatergic Synapses ◽  
Behavioral Deficits ◽  
Pharmacological Modulation ◽  
The Social ◽  
State Preference ◽  
Molecular Pathophysiology

AbstractIn this study we tested the hypothesis that pharmacological modulation of glutamatergic neurotransmission could rescue behavioral deficits exhibited by mice carrying a specific mutation in the Iqsec2 gene. The IQSEC2 protein plays a key role in glutamatergic synapses and mutations in the IQSEC2 gene are a frequent cause of neurodevelopmental disorders. We have recently reported on the molecular pathophysiology of one such mutation A350V and demonstrated that this mutation downregulates AMPA type glutamatergic receptors (AMPAR) in A350V mice. Here we sought to identify behavioral deficits in A350V mice and hypothesized that we could rescue these deficits by PF-4778574, a positive AMPAR modulator. Using a battery of social behavioral tasks, we found that A350V Iqsec2 mice exhibit specific deficits in sex preference and emotional state preference behaviors as well as in vocalizations when encountering a female mouse. The social discrimination deficits, but not the impaired vocalization, were rescued with a single dose of PF-4778574. We conclude that social behavior deficits associated with the A350V Iqsec2 mutation may be rescued by enhancing AMPAR mediated synaptic transmission.

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