scholarly journals Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Ecuador Using the Logistic Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 105-118
Author(s):  
Talia Tene ◽  
Marco Guevara ◽  
Jiří Svozilík ◽  
Richard Tene-Fernandez ◽  
Cristian Vacacela Gomez
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
Infected People ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Long Term Prediction

At the end of 2019, the COVID-19 disease emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, and caused an outbreak of unusual viral pneumonia. Being highly transmissible, this novel coronavirus disease has spread fast all over the world. COVID-19 continues to challenge most developed countries in the search for an effective strategy to either prevent infection or to avoid the spreading of the disease. While several developed countries have managed to contain COVID-19, several countries in Latin America continue to report an increase in the daily number of infected people. Ecuador, particularly, became the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the region during March and April 2020. In this context, the present study shows a simple mathematical approach to understand the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ecuador (and some Latin American countries such as Brazil, Peru, and Colombia). The proposed method is based on the exponential model, discrete logistic equation, and differential logistic model using one-year data from March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021. This study presents the estimated growth rate coefficient (λ), the total number of cases (N), and the midpoint of maximum infection (t_0) as well as the variability of the λ coefficient as a function of total cases and time. The exponential model shows a high value of λ=0.185 which decreases to λ=0.014 and λ=0.056 according to the discrete and differential logistic models, respectively. An accurate value of the total number of cases of infected people was found by analyzing the number of daily cases as a function of the total of cases whose value (N~409 K) agrees with the data reported at the end of May 2021, validating the proposed approach. How to use the current mathematical approach for long-term prediction is also discussed here. Most importantly, the proposed method has two important characteristics: (i) the mathematical model is as simple as possible compared to other time-consuming approaches, and (ii) it can be used to study the effect of COVID-19 and predicts its consequences in other countries, allowing revenue new decisions against the COVID-19 disease. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-09 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals CLINICAL AND LABORATORY CHARACTERISTICS OF SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlos Melo Martins ◽  
Arnaldo Prata-Barbosa ◽  
Maria Clara de Magalhães-Barbosa ◽  
Antonio José Ledo Alves da Cunha
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Inflammatory Responses ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Gastrointestinal Symptoms ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
Childhood And Adolescence ◽  
Inflammatory Reactions ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

ABSTRACT Objective: To present the current evidence on clinical and laboratory characteristics of infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during childhood and adolescence. Data source: This is a narrative review conducted in the databases: Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE/PubMed), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature in the Virtual Health Library (LILACS/VHL), Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, portal of the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES), Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), ScienceDirect, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL). The terms used were SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, novel coronavirus, child, newborn, and adolescent. Data synthesis: Unlike adults, most children infected by SARS-CoV-2 have mild or asymptomatic clinical presentations. Symptomatic children mainly have low fever and cough, with some associated gastrointestinal symptoms. Severe cases are rare and occur especially in infants under one year of age. Detection of viral particles in feces seems to be more persistent in children and can be used as a tool for diagnosis and control of the quarantine period. Different from adults, children can present distinct inflammatory responses, as has happened in new cases of Kawasaki-like syndrome associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusions: Most children have asymptomatic or mild presentations, with a prevalence of fever, cough, and gastrointestinal symptoms. New cases with different systemic inflammatory reactions in children have been reported, with clinical manifestations distinct from those typically found in adults.

scholarly journals Aplikasi Persamaan Diferensial Dalam Mengestimasi Jumlah Penduduk dengan Menggunakan Model Eksponensial dan Logistik

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-55
Author(s):  
Nasrun Rozikin ◽  
Ketut Sarjana ◽  
Arjudin Arjudin ◽  
Nurul Hikmah
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City

This research was aimed to describe the application of differential equations of the population growth model in the City of Mataram, which is an exponential and logistic models for estimating the population of the City of Mataram in 2024. The research method used in this research is descriptive research with a qualitative approach carried out by observation and analyze the subject. The subject of this research was data on the population of the City of Mataram from 2006 to 2019. Meanwhile, to determine the accuracy and validity of the research data, the triangulation of sources was used. The data used comes from the Dispendukcapil and BPS the City of Mataram. The research result, it shows that the exponential model has an accuracy rate of 99,6%, which is very accurate, while for estimating with a logistic model each criterion is very accurate but the confidence level is 97,9%. Estimation results also show that population growth in the city of Mataram in the future will slowdown in its growth every 2 years, with an average decrease of 0.5%.

scholarly journals High Mortality Rate Due to Novel Coronavirus and Deficient Magnesium Intake by Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Masum
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
The West ◽  
Infected People ◽  
National Differences ◽  
Human Immune ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The mortality rate due to COVID-19 is much lower in Asia and Africa than in developed countries in Europe and the United States (West), and this has become an issue that is attracting a great deal of attention. On the other hand, it has recently become clear that the mineral Magnesium (Mg) is significantly related to human immune function, and most people in the West have insufficient Mg intake. Furthermore, it has become clear that the conventional standards for Mg intake are inadequate to indicate insufficient Mg intake. This report shows that regional and national differences in Mg intake are largely responsible for the differences in deaths per infected people (D/IP) caused by COVID-19: the West and Indonesia are considered to have low dietary Mg intakes, resulting in high D/IP; and India･Bangladesh and Africa are the opposite.

scholarly journals Understanding the outbreak of COVID-19 in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Vol 2090 (1) ◽  
pp. 012018
Author(s):  
Talia Tene ◽  
Marco Guevara ◽  
Jiří Svozilík ◽  
Cristian Vacacela Gomez
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Behavior ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Rate Coefficient ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
State Health ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract In this study is presented a mathematical approach that can be used to estimate the variability of the growth rate coefficient (λ), the total number of cases, and the midpoint of maximum infection due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The different parameters are quantified using one-year data set reported for Ecuador (from March 2020 to February 2021) and the (discrete or differential) logistic model. In particular, the results evidence that the most critical months of the pandemic in Ecuador were March and April 2020. In the following months, the outbreak continues with low growth rate values but in a variable way, which can be attributed to state health policies and the social behavior of the population. The estimated number of confirmed cases is around 409 K agrees with the data reported at the end of May 2021, validating the proposed mathematical approach.

scholarly journals Sudden unexpected infant death syndrome in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

1998 ◽  
Vol 116 (5) ◽  
pp. 1803-1807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Cesar Peres
Keyword(s):  
American Literature ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Infant Death ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Latin American Literature ◽  
Sudden Infant Death ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sudden Infant ◽  
Unexpected Infant Death ◽  
One Year

CONTEXT: Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) is the leading cause of death in the first year of life in developed countries. Brazilian and Latin American literature lack studies on the subject, which is largely unknown among health workers. OBJECTIVE: To identify cases that could be classified as SIDS among children of less than one year of age submitted to autopsy at the Serviço de Verificação de Óbitos do Interior (SVOI), in Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil. A retrospective analysis of all autopsies from SVOI in this age group from January 1987 to December 1990 was done. RESULTS: There were 369 autopsies of which 344 (93.2%) deaths were expected and 25 (6.8%) unexpected. From the 25 unexpected cases 16 (64%) deaths could not be explained after autopsy and from these cases only 10 were eligible for the study because they had full organ sampling. There were 7 males and 3 females and the age at death ranged from 1 to 3 months (average: 1.7 months). Two were found dead, 3 died at home, 4 died on the way to hospital and 1 died while being fed. Autopsy diagnoses were aspiration (8 cases), SIDS (1 case) and undetermined (1 case). Aspiration was not confirmed by histology and the only findings were mild pulmonary edema, subcapsular petechiae and intraparenchymatous hemorrhage in thymus. CONCLUSION: That there were 10 cases of unexpected and unexplained deaths of children less than 1 year-old during the evaluated period with characteristics similar to SIDS which should therefore be classified as such.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in conflict border regions: a case of South Kordofan, Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quraish Sserwanja ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Adam ◽  
Joseph Kawuki ◽  
Emmanuel Olal
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Displaced People ◽  
Set Up ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
South Kordofan

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Sudan on 13 March 2020. Since then, Sudan has experienced one of the highest rates of COVID-19 spread and fatalities in Africa. One year later, as per 22 March 2021, Sudan had registered 29,661 confirmed cases and 2,028 deaths with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 6.8 %. By 12 December 2020, of the 18 states in Sudan, South Kordofan had the fifth highest CFR of 17.4 %, only surpassed by the other conflict affected North (57.5 %), Central (50.0 %) and East (31.8 %) Darfur States. By late March 2021, just three months from December 2020, the number of cases in South Kordofan increased by 100 %, but with a significant decline in the CFR from 17.4 to 8.5 %. South Kordofan is home to over 200,000 poor and displaced people from years of destructive civil unrests. To date, several localities such as the Nubba mountains region remain under rebel control and are not accessible. South Kordofan State Ministry of Health in collaboration with the federal government and non-governmental organizations set up four isolation centres with 40 total bed capacity, but with only two mechanical ventilators and no testing centre. There is still need for further multi-sectoral coalition and equitable allocation of resources to strengthen the health systems of rural and conflict affected regions. This article aims at providing insight into the current state of COVID-19 in South Kordofan amidst the second wave to address the dearth of COVID-19 information in rural and conflict affected regions.

scholarly journals On the optimal control of coronavirus (2019-nCov) mathematical model; a numerical approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. H. Sweilam ◽  
S. M. Al-Mekhlafi ◽  
A. O. Albalawi ◽  
D. Baleanu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Necessary Optimality Conditions ◽  
Numerical Approach ◽  
Population Number ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Theoretical Results

Abstract In this paper, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) mathematical model with modified parameters is presented. This model consists of six nonlinear fractional order differential equations. Optimal control of the suggested model is the main objective of this work. Two control variables are presented in this model to minimize the population number of infected and asymptotically infected people. Necessary optimality conditions are derived. The Grünwald–Letnikov nonstandard weighted average finite difference method is constructed for simulating the proposed optimal control system. The stability of the proposed method is proved. In order to validate the theoretical results, numerical simulations and comparative studies are given.

scholarly journals Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4266
Author(s):  
Md. Shahriare Satu ◽  
Koushik Chandra Howlader ◽  
Mufti Mahmud ◽  
M. Shamim Kaiser ◽  
Sheikh Mohammad Shariful Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Infected Case ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The first case in Bangladesh of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported on 8 March 2020, with the number of confirmed cases rapidly rising to over 175,000 by July 2020. In the absence of effective treatment, an essential tool of health policy is the modeling and forecasting of the progress of the pandemic. We, therefore, developed a cloud-based machine learning short-term forecasting model for Bangladesh, in which several regression-based machine learning models were applied to infected case data to estimate the number of COVID-19-infected people over the following seven days. This approach can accurately forecast the number of infected cases daily by training the prior 25 days sample data recorded on our web application. The outcomes of these efforts could aid the development and assessment of prevention strategies and identify factors that most affect the spread of COVID-19 infection in Bangladesh.

Driving While Impaired and Riding with an Impaired Driver among Recent Latinx Immigrants

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110148
Author(s):  
Eduardo Romano ◽  
Mariana Sanchez ◽  
Eileen P. Taylor ◽  
Rosa Babino
Keyword(s):  
Young Adult ◽  
Latin American ◽  
National Institutes Of Health ◽  
Dade County ◽  
Baseline Assessment ◽  
Drinking And Driving ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Driving While Impaired ◽  
One Year ◽  
Significant Factors

The overarching aim of this study is to assess driving while impaired by alcohol (DWI) and riding with an impaired driver (RWID) rates among young adult Latinx immigrants to Miami-Dade County, Florida, within a year of arrival in the U.S.A. More specifically, this study aims to: (i) describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of Latinx immigrants to Miami-Dade County within a year of arrival; (ii) examine their alcohol use, DWI, and RWID; and (iii) identify factors influencing these behaviors. This study uses baseline data from an ongoing National Institutes of Health-funded longitudinal study examining drinking and driving trajectories among young adult recent Latinx immigrants to Miami-Dade County. During the baseline assessment, retrospective pre-immigration data and post-immigration data were obtained via personal interviews. Inclusion criteria included being a Latinx immigrant, 18–34 years old, who recently immigrated (within one year before baseline assessment) to the U.S.A. from a Latin American country with the intention of staying in the U.S.A. for at least three years beyond baseline. Respondent-driven sampling was applied. Results showed that since arriving in the U.S.A. approximately 6.3% of all participants had engaged in DWI at least once and 20% reported RWID. Although household income and being male were significant factors, the factor that influenced post-immigration DWI/RWID the most was pre-immigration DWI (odds ratio = 13.1) and pre-immigration RWID (odd ratio = 24.5). Interventions aimed to prevent recent immigrants from engaging in DWI and RWID should take cultural factors and pre-immigration behaviors into account.

scholarly journals Consequences of antepartum hemorrhage and its maternal and perinatal outcome

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1480
Author(s):  
Himang Jharaik ◽  
Bishan Dhiman ◽  
S. K. Verma ◽  
Aditi Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Perinatal Outcome ◽  
Placenta Previa ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Perinatal Morbidity ◽  
Antepartum Haemorrhage ◽  
High Risk Factors ◽  
Fetal Complications ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
One Year ◽  
Life Threatening Event

Background: Antepartum haemorrhage, a life-threatening event, is defined as bleeding per vaginum occurring after the fetus has reached the period of viability, considered to be 20 weeks in developed countries and 28 weeks in countries with low resource settings. We evaluated the consequences of antepartum haemorrhage, their maternal and perinatal outcome so as to outline the proper management of patient in order to improve both maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality.Methods: This one-year prospective study totaled 133 cases of APH fulfilling the inclusion criteria were studied. Data was recorded on the MS excel sheet for further analysis and processing.Results: Total 6693 deliveries were conducted out of which 133 presented as APH and incidence of APH was found out to be 1.98%. Placenta previa was most common. APH was commonly associated with multigravida and most cases were in age group of 26-30 years. Most of the PP and abruption cases were admitted at 34-37 weeks and 31-33 weeks respectively. High risk factors included previous LSCS and D and C, hypertension, multiple pregnancies and malpresentations. Most of the patients underwent preterm LSCS. Most fetal complications were due to prematurity. 58.6% patients were transfused blood. Overall perinatal mortality was 20.1% and maternal mortality was zero.Conclusions: Early diagnoses, timely referrals and transfusion facilities along with trained team of doctors with well-equipped ICU facility goes a long way in avoiding APH related maternak and fetal complications.

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