scholarly journals Spatiotemporal variation of mesoscale convective system type persistent elongated convective system (PECS) in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012013
Author(s):  
I M Firdaus ◽  
N J Trilaksono
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variation ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Usa

Abstract Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) in Indonesia has been studied to identify the characteristics and distribution of MCS. Persistent Elongated Convective System (PECS) is one of the MCS types that can cause extreme weather. However, identifying the spatial and temporal variations of PECS in Indonesia has not been studied further. This study examines the Persistent Elongated Convective System (PECS) in Maritime Continent from 2010-2014. MERG Dataset with brightness temperature is used to identify PECS and input Grab ‘Em Tag ‘Em Graph ‘Em (GTG) tracking algorithm to gain a better understanding of spatiotemporal variation in Indonesia. Flood data from BNPB in Indonesia is used to find out the correlation between flood and PECS events in Indonesia. PECS events in 2010-2014 are 5574 events, which the transitional period (MAM and SON) has the most PECS events and longest duration of life. The PECS spread in the early morning on land and sea, while on day and nighttime, it is concentrated on land for the area of Java, Papua, and Southern Kalimantan. Java and Papua have the largest concentrated PECS events. The life phase of the PECS has two peaks or semidiurnal cycles, in the morning and nighttime. There are differences in peak times for each phase of the PECS on land and sea. In Indonesia, PECS has the smallest average maximum area than in the USA and China but has the longest duration and largest eccentricity. Based on flood data from BNPB, during 2010-2014, Java has the most flood. According to flood data and PECS events in Java, there is 6.72% of flood coincided with PECS events during the period.

scholarly journals High resolution simulations of a flash flood near Venice

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1671-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Davolio ◽  
D. Mastrangelo ◽  
M. M. Miglietta ◽  
O. Drofa ◽  
A. Buzzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Barrier Type ◽  
The Alps

Abstract. During the MAP D-PHASE (Mesoscale Alpine Programme, Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region) Operational Period (DOP, 1 June–30 November 2007) the most intense precipitation event observed south of the Alps occurred over the Venice Lagoon. In the early morning of 26 September 2007, a mesoscale convective system formed in an area of convergence between a south-easterly low level jet flowing along the Adriatic Sea and a north-easterly barrier-type wind south of the Alps, and was responsible for precipitation exceeding 320 mm in less than 12 h, 240 mm of which in only 3 h. The forecast rainfall fields, provided by several convection resolving models operated daily for the D-PHASE project, have been compared. An analysis of different aspects of the event, such as the relevant mechanisms leading to the flood, the main characteristics of the MCS, and an estimation of the predictability of the episode, has been performed using a number of high resolution, convection resolving models (MOLOCH, WRF and MM5). Strong sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions and to model parameterization schemes has been found. Although low predictability is expected due to the convective nature of rainfall, the forecasts made more than 24 h in advance indicate that the larger scale environment driving the dynamics of this event played an important role in favouring the achievement of a relatively good accuracy in the precipitation forecasts.

Mesoscale Convective Vortices in Multiscale, Idealized Simulations: Dependence on Background State, Interdependency with Moist Baroclinic Cyclones, and Comparison with BAMEX Observations

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1119-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Conzemius ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery
Keyword(s):  
Tangential Velocity ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Pressure Amplitude ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Common Center ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract A set of multiscale, nested, idealized numerical simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) was conducted. The purpose of these simulations was to investigate the dependence of MCV development and evolution on background conditions and to explore the relationship between MCVs and larger, moist baroclinic cyclones. In all experiments, no mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed until a larger-scale, moist baroclinic system with surface pressure amplitude of at least 2 hPa was present. The convective system then enhanced the development of the moist baroclinic system by its diabatic production of eddy available potential energy (APE), which led to the enhanced baroclinic conversion of basic-state APE to eddy APE. The most rapid potential vorticity (PV) development occurred in and just behind the leading convective line. The entire system grew upscale with time as the newly created PV rotated cyclonically around a common center as the leading convective line continued to expand outward. Ten hours after the initiation of deep moist convection, the simulated MCV radii, heights of maximum winds, tangential velocity, and shear corresponded reasonably well to their counterparts in BAMEX. The increasing strength of the simulated MCVs with respect to larger values of background CAPE and shear supports the hypothesis that as long as convection is present, CAPE and shear both add to the strength of the MCV.

scholarly journals Reducing the Biases in Simulated Radar Reflectivities from a Bulk Microphysics Scheme: Tropical Convective Systems

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (10) ◽  
pp. 2306-2320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen E. Lang ◽  
Wei-Kuo Tao ◽  
Xiping Zeng ◽  
Yaping Li
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Ice Nuclei ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Immersion Freezing ◽  
Cloud Ice

Abstract A well-known bias common to many bulk microphysics schemes currently being used in cloud-resolving models is the tendency to produce excessively large reflectivity values (e.g., 40 dBZ) in the middle and upper troposphere in simulated convective systems. The Rutledge and Hobbs–based bulk microphysics scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model is modified to reduce this bias and improve realistic aspects. Modifications include lowering the efficiencies for snow/graupel riming and snow accreting cloud ice; converting less rimed snow to graupel; allowing snow/graupel sublimation; adding rime splintering, immersion freezing, and contact nucleation; replacing the Fletcher formulation for activated ice nuclei with that of Meyers et al.; allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment; accounting for ambient RH in the growth of cloud ice to snow; and adding/accounting for cloud ice fall speeds. In addition, size-mapping schemes for snow/graupel were added as functions of temperature and mixing ratio, lowering particle sizes at colder temperatures but allowing larger particles near the melting level and at higher mixing ratios. The modifications were applied to a weakly organized continental case and an oceanic mesoscale convective system (MCS). Strong echoes in the middle and upper troposphere were reduced in both cases. Peak reflectivities agreed well with radar for the weaker land case but, despite improvement, remained too high for the MCS. Reflectivity distributions versus height were much improved versus radar for the less organized land case but not for the MCS despite fewer excessively strong echoes aloft due to a bias toward weaker echoes at storm top.

A new parameterization of the accretion of cloud water by snow and its evaluation through simulations of mesoscale convective systems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han-Gyul Jin ◽  
Jong-Jin Baik
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Spherical Shape ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Water ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

<p>A new parameterization of the accretion of cloud water by snow for use in bulk microphysics schemes is derived by analytically solving the stochastic collection equation (SCE), where the theoretical collision efficiency for individual snowflake–cloud droplet pairs is applied. The snowflake shape is assumed to be nonspherical with the mass- and area-size relations suggested by an observational study. The performance of the new parameterization is compared to two parameterizations based on the continuous collection equation, one with the spherical shape assumption for snowflakes (SPH-CON), and the other with the nonspherical shape assumption employed in the new parameterization (NSP-CON). In box model simulations, only the new parameterization reproduces a relatively slow decrease in the cloud droplet number concentration which is predicted by the direct SCE solver. This results from considering the preferential collection of cloud droplets depending on their sizes in the new parameterization based on the SCE. In idealized squall-line simulations using a cloud-resolving model, the new parameterization predicts heavier precipitation in the convective core region compared to SPH-CON, and a broader area of the trailing stratiform rain compared to NSP-CON due to the horizontal advection of greater amount of snow in the upper layer. In the real-case simulations of a line-shaped mesoscale convective system that passed over the central Korean Peninsula, the new parameterization predicts higher frequencies of light precipitation rates and lower frequencies of heavy precipitation rates. The relatively large amount of upper-level snow in the new parameterization contributes to a broadening of the area with significant snow water path.</p>

Morphology, Intensity, and Rainfall Production of MJO Convection: Observations from DYNAMO Shipborne Radar and TRMM

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 623-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weixin Xu ◽  
Steven A. Rutledge
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Precipitation Radar ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Trmm Pr ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Trmm Precipitation

Abstract This study uses Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) shipborne [Research Vessel (R/V) Roger Revelle] radar and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) datasets to investigate MJO-associated convective systems in specific organizational modes [mesoscale convective system (MCS) versus sub-MCS and linear versus nonlinear]. The Revelle radar sampled many “climatological” aspects of MJO convection as indicated by comparison with the long-term TRMM PR statistics, including areal-mean rainfall (6–7 mm day−1), convective intensity, rainfall contributions from different morphologies, and their variations with MJO phase. Nonlinear sub-MCSs were present 70% of the time but contributed just around 20% of the total rainfall. In contrast, linear and nonlinear MCSs were present 10% of the time but contributed 20% and 50%, respectively. These distributions vary with MJO phase, with the largest sub-MCS rainfall fraction in suppressed phases (phases 5–7) and maximum MCS precipitation in active phases (phases 2 and 3). Similarly, convective–stratiform rainfall fractions also varied significantly with MJO phase, with the highest convective fractions (70%–80%) in suppressed phases and the largest stratiform fraction (40%–50%) in active phases. However, there are also discrepancies between the Revelle radar and TRMM PR. Revelle radar data indicated a mean convective rain fraction of 70% compared to 55% for TRMM PR. This difference is mainly due to the reduced resolution of the TRMM PR compared to the ship radar. There are also notable differences in the rainfall contributions as a function of convective intensity between the Revelle radar and TRMM PR. In addition, TRMM PR composites indicate linear MCS rainfall increases after MJO onset and produce similar rainfall contributions to nonlinear MCSs; however, the Revelle radar statistics show the clear dominance of nonlinear MCS rainfall.

scholarly journals Long-Lived Mesoscale Systems in a Low–Convective Inhibition Environment. Part II: Downshear Propagation

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 4319-4336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff ◽  
Todd P. Lane
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Circulation ◽  
Secondary Importance ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Part II of this study of long-lived convective systems in a tropical environment focuses on forward-tilted, downshear-propagating systems that emerge spontaneously from idealized numerical simulations. These systems differ in important ways from the standard mesoscale convective system that is characterized by a rearward-tilted circulation with a trailing stratiform region, an overturning updraft, and a mesoscale downdraft. In contrast to this standard mesoscale system, the downshear-propagating system considered here does not feature a mesoscale downdraft and, although there is a cold pool it is of secondary importance to the propagation and maintenance of the system. The mesoscale downdraft is replaced by hydraulic-jump-like ascent beneath an elevated, forward-tilted overturning updraft with negligible convective available potential energy. Therefore, the mesoscale circulation is sustained almost entirely by the work done by the horizontal pressure gradient and the kinetic energy available from environmental shear. This category of organization is examined by cloud-system-resolving simulations and approximated by a nonlinear archetypal model of the quasi-steady Lagrangian-mean mesoscale circulation.

scholarly journals Biomass burning CCN enhance the dynamics of a mesoscale convective system over the La Plata Basin: a numerical approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 2081-2096
Author(s):  
Gláuber Camponogara ◽  
Maria Assunção Faus da Silva Dias ◽  
Gustavo G. Carrió
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective System ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
La Plata Basin ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract. High aerosol loadings are discharged into the atmosphere every year by biomass burning in the Amazon and central Brazil during the dry season (July–December). These particles, suspended in the atmosphere, can be carried via a low-level jet toward the La Plata Basin, one of the largest hydrographic basins in the world. Once they reach this region, the aerosols can affect mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), whose frequency is higher during the spring and summer over the basin. The present study is one of the first that seeks to understand the microphysical effects of biomass burning aerosols from the Amazon Basin on mesoscale convective systems over the La Plata Basin. We performed numerical simulations initialized with idealized cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) profiles for an MCS case observed over the La Plata Basin on 21 September 2010. The experiments reveal an important link between CCN number concentration and MCS dynamics, where stronger downdrafts were observed under higher amounts of aerosols, generating more updraft cells in response. Moreover, the simulations show higher amounts of precipitation as the CCN concentration increases. Despite the model's uncertainties and limitations, these results represent an important step toward the understanding of possible impacts on the Amazon biomass burning aerosols over neighboring regions such as the La Plata Basin.

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of Momentum Transport and Severe Surface Winds to Environmental Moisture in Idealized Simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (5) ◽  
pp. 1352-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly M. Mahoney ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Momentum Transport ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Momentum Transport

Analysis of a pair of three-dimensional simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveals a significant sensitivity of convective momentum transport (CMT), MCS motion, and the generation of severe surface winds to ambient moisture. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to simulate an idealized MCS, which is compared with an MCS in a drier midlevel environment. The MCS in the drier environment is smaller, moves slightly faster, and exhibits increased descent and more strongly focused areas of enhanced CMT near the surface in the trailing stratiform region relative to that in the control simulation. A marked increase in the occurrence of severe surface winds is observed between the dry midlevel simulation and the control. It is shown that the enhanced downward motion associated with decreased midlevel relative humidity affects CMT fields and contributes to an increase in the number of grid-cell occurrences of severe surface winds. The role of a descending rear-inflow jet in producing strong surface winds at locations trailing the gust front is also analyzed, and is found to be associated with low-level CMT maxima, particularly in the drier midlevel simulation.

scholarly journals Biomass burning CCNs enhance the dynamics of a Mesoscale Convective System over the La Plata Basin: a numerical approach

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gláuber Camponogara ◽  
Maria Assunção Faus Silva Dias ◽  
Gustavo G. Carrió
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Numerical Approach ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective System ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
La Plata Basin ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract. High aerosol loadings are discharged into the atmosphere every year by biomass burning in the Amazon and Central Brazil during the dry season (July–December). These particles, suspended in the atmosphere, can be carried via a low level jet toward the La Plata Basin, one of the largest hydrographic basins in the world. Once they reach this region, the aerosols can affect mesoscale convective systems (MCS), whose frequency is higher during the spring and summer over the basin. The present study is one of the first that seeks to understand the microphysical effects of biomass burning aerosols from the Amazon Basin on mesoscale convective systems over the La Plata Basin. We performed numerical simulations initialized with idealized CCN profiles for an MCS case observed over the La Plata Basin on 21 September 2010. The experiments reveal an important link between CCN number concentration and MCS dynamics, where stronger downdrafts were observed under higher amounts of aerosols, generating more updraft cells in response. Moreover, the simulations show higher amounts of precipitation as the CCN concentration increases. Despite the model’s uncertainties and limitations, these results represent an important step toward the understanding of possible impacts on the Amazon biomass burning aerosols over neighboring regions such as the La Plata Basin.

scholarly journals Comparison of Airborne and Spaceborne 95-GHz Radar Reflectivities and Evaluation of Multiple Scattering Effects in Spaceborne Measurements

2008 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1983-1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Bouniol ◽  
Alain Protat ◽  
Artemio Plana-Fattori ◽  
Manuel Giraud ◽  
Jean-Paul Vinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Scattering ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Ice Water Content ◽  
Radar Calibration ◽  
Ice Water

Abstract This paper provides an evaluation of the level 1 (reflectivity) CloudSat products by making use of coincident measurements collected by an airborne 95-GHz radar during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) experiment that took place in summer 2006 over West Africa. In a first step the airborne radar calibration is assessed. Collocated measurements of the spaceborne and airborne radars within the ice anvil of a mesoscale convective system are then compared. Several aspects are interesting in this comparison: First, both instruments exhibit attenuation within the ice part of the convective system, which suggests either the presence of a significant amount of supercooled liquid water above the melting layer or the presence of wet and very dense ice. Second, from the differences in the observed reflectivity values, a multiple scattering enhancement of at least 2.5 dB in the CloudSat reflectivities at flight altitude is estimated. The main conclusion of this paper is that in such thick anvils of mesoscale convective systems the CloudSat measurements have to be corrected for this effect, if one wants to derive accurate level 2 products such as the ice water content from radar reflectivity. This effect is expected to be much smaller in nonprecipitating clouds though.

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