Supercell thunderstorm charge structure variability and influences on spatial lightning flash relationships with the updraft

Relationships between lightning flashes and thunderstorm kinematics and microphysics are important for applications such as nowcasting of convective intensity. These relationships are influenced by cloud electrification structures and have been shown to vary in anomalously electrified thunderstorms. This study addresses transitional relationships between active charge structure and lightning flash location in the context of kinematic and microphysical updraft characteristics during the development of an anomalously electrified supercell thunderstorm in the Tennessee Valley on 10 April 2009. The initial charge structure within the updraft was characterized as an anomalous dipole in which positive charge was inferred in regions of precipitation ice (i.e., graupel and hail) and negative charge was inferred in regions of cloud ice (i.e., aggregates and ice crystals). During subsequent development of the anomalous charge structure, additional minor charge layers as well as evidence of increasing horizontal complexity were observed. Microphysical and kinematic characteristics of the charge structure also evolved to include increasing observations of negative charge in precipitation ice regions, indicating the emergence of more prominent normal charging alongside dominant anomalous charging. Simultaneously, lightning flash initiation locations were also increasingly observed in regions of faster updrafts and stronger horizontal gradients in updraft speed. It is suggested that continuous variability in charging behavior over meso-gamma spatial scales influenced the evolution of lightning flash locations with respect to the updraft structure. Further work is necessary to determine how this variability may impact lightning flash relation-ships, including lightning flash rate, with bulk microphysical and kinematic characteristics and related applications.

Radiative Cooling, Latent Heating, and Cloud Ice in the Tropical Upper Troposphere

The radiative cooling rate in the tropical upper troposphere is expected to increase as climate warms. Since the tropics are approximately in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), this implies an increase in the convective heating rate, which is the sum of the latent heating rate and the eddy heat flux convergence. We examine the impact of these changes on the vertical profile of cloud ice amount in cloud-resolving simulations of RCE. Three simulations are conducted: a control run, a warming run, and an experimental run in which there is no warming but a temperature forcing is imposed to mimic the warming-induced increase in radiative cooling. Surface warming causes a reduction in cloud fraction at all upper tropospheric temperature levels but an increase in the ice mixing ratio within deep convective cores. The experimental run has more cloud ice than the warming run at fixed temperature despite the fact that their latent heating rates are equal, which suggests that the efficiency of latent heating by cloud ice increases with warming. An analytic expression relating the ice-related latent heating rate to a number of other factors is derived and used to understand the model results. This reveals that the increase in latent heating efficiency is driven mostly by 1) the migration of isotherms to lower pressure and 2) a slight warming of the top of the convective layer. These physically robust changes act to reduce the residence time of ice along at any particular temperature level, which tempers the response of the mean cloud ice profile to warming.

Midlatitude mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds and their interactions with aerosols: how ice processes affect microphysical, dynamic, and thermodynamic development in those clouds and interactions?

Midlatitude mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds and their interactions with aerosols remain poorly understood. This study examines the roles of ice processes in those clouds and their interactions with aerosols using a large-eddy simulation (LES) framework. Cloud mass becomes much lower in the presence of ice processes and the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) mechanism in the mixed-phase clouds compared to that in warm clouds. This is because while the WBF mechanism enhances the evaporation of droplets, the low concentration of aerosols acting as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and cloud ice number concentration (CINC) prevent the efficient deposition of water vapor. Note that the INP concentration in this study is based on the observed spatiotemporal variability of aerosols. This results in the lower CINC compared to that with empirical dependence of the INP concentrations on temperature in a previous study. In the mixed-phase clouds, the increasing concentration of aerosols that act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) decreases cloud mass by increasing the evaporation of droplets through the WBF mechanism and decreasing the intensity of updrafts. In contrast to this, in the warm clouds, the absence of the WBF mechanism makes the increase in the evaporation of droplets inefficient, eventually enabling cloud mass to increase with the increasing concentration of aerosols acting as CCN. Here, the results show that when there is an increasing concentration of aerosols that act as INPs, the deposition of water vapor is more efficient than when there is the increasing concentration of aerosols acting as CCN, which in turn enables cloud mass to increase in the mixed-phase clouds.

The first global 883 GHz cloud ice survey: IceCube Level 1 data calibration, processing and analysis

Sub-millimeter (200–1000 GHz) wavelengths contribute a unique capability to fill in the sensitivity gap between operational visible–infrared (VIS–IR) and microwave (MW) remote sensing for atmospheric cloud ice and snow. Being able to penetrate clouds to measure cloud ice mass and microphysical properties in the middle to upper troposphere, a critical spectrum range, is necessary for us to understand the connection between cloud ice and precipitation processes. As the first spaceborne 883 GHz radiometer, the IceCube mission was NASA's latest spaceflight demonstration of commercial sub-millimeter radiometer technology. Successfully launched from the International Space Station, IceCube is essentially a free-running radiometer and collected valuable 15-month measurements of atmosphere and cloud ice. This paper describes the detailed procedures for Level 1 (L1) data calibration, processing and validation. The scientific quality and value of IceCube data are then discussed, including radiative transfer model validation and evaluation, as well as the unique spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of cloud ice that are revealed for the first time on a quasi-global scale at this frequency. IceCube Level 1 dataset is publicly available at Gong and Wu (2021) (https://doi.org/10.25966/3d2p-f515).

Assimilating Cloud Optical Depth for Applications to Extreme Weather Events

This paper reports the assimilation of cloud optical depth datasets into a variational data assimilation system to improve cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel analysis in extreme weather events for improving forecasts. A cloud optical depth forward operator was developed and implemented in the Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS), a multiscale three-dimensional variational analysis system. Using this improved analysis system, the NOAA GOES-15 DCOMP (Daytime Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties) cloud optical depth products were assimilated to improve the microphysical states. For an eight-day period of extreme weather events in September 2013 in Colorado, the United States, the impact of the cloud optical depth assimilation on the analysis results and forecasts was evaluated. The DCOMP products improved the cloud ice and cloud water predictions significantly in convective and lower levels. The DCOMP products also reduced errors in temperature and relative humidity data at the top (250–150 hPa) and bottom (850–700 hPa) layers. With the cloud ice improvement at higher layers, the DCOMP products provided better forecasts of cloud liquid at low layers (900–700 hPa), temperature and wind at all layers, and relative humidity at middle and bottom layers. Furthermore, for this extreme weather event, both equitable threat score (ETS) and bias were improved throughout the 12 h period, with the most significant improvement observed in the first 3 h. This study will raise the expectation of cloud optical depth product assimilation in operational applications.

Secondary ice production processes in wintertime alpine mixed-phase clouds

Observations of orographic mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) have long shown that measured ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) can exceed the concentration of ice nucleating particles by orders of magnitude. Additionally, model simulations of alpine clouds are frequently found to underestimate the amount of ice compared with observations. Surface-based blowing snow, hoar frost and secondary ice production processes have been suggested as potential causes, but their relative importance and persistence remains highly uncertain. Here we study ice production mechanisms in wintertime orographic MPCs observed during the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment (CLACE) 2014 campaign at the Jungfraujoch site in the Swiss Alps with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Simulations suggest that droplet shattering is not a significant source of ice crystals at this specific location – but break-up upon collisions between ice particles is quite active, elevating the predicted ICNCs by up to 3 orders of magnitude, which is consistent with observations. The initiation of the ice-ice collisional break-up mechanism is primarily associated with the occurrence of seeder-feeder events from higher precipitating cloud layers. The enhanced aggregation of snowflakes is found to drive secondary ice formation in the simulated clouds, the role of which is strengthened when the large hydrometeors interact with the primary ice crystals formed in the feeder cloud. Including a constant source of cloud ice crystals from blowing snow, through the action of the break-up mechanism, can episodically enhance ICNCs. Increases in secondary ice fragment generation can be counterbalanced by enhanced orographic precipitation, which seems to prevent explosive multiplication and cloud dissipation. These findings highlight the importance of secondary ice and "seeding" mechanisms – primarily falling ice from above and to a lesser degree blowing ice from the surface – which frequently enhance primary ice and determine the phase state and properties of MPCs.

In situ observation of new particle formation (NPF) in the tropical tropopause layer of the 2017 Asian monsoon anticyclone – Part 2: NPF inside ice clouds

From 27 July to 10 August 2017, the airborne StratoClim mission took place in Kathmandu, Nepal, where eight mission flights were conducted with the M-55 Geophysica up to altitudes of 20 km. New particle formation (NPF) was identified by the abundant presence of nucleation-mode aerosols, with particle diameters dp smaller than 15 nm, which were in-situ-detected by means of condensation nuclei (CN) counter techniques. NPF fields in clear skies as well as in the presence of cloud ice particles (dp > 3 µm) were encountered at upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere (UTLS) levels and within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). NPF-generated nucleation-mode particles in elevated concentrations (Nnm) were frequently found together with cloud ice (in number concentrations Nice of up to 3 cm−3) at heights between ∼ 11 and 16 km. From a total measurement time of ∼ 22.5 h above 10 km altitude, in-cloud NPF was in sum detected over ∼ 1.3 h (∼ 50 % of all NPF records throughout StratoClim). Maximum Nnm of up to ∼ 11 000 cm−3 was detected coincidently with intermediate ice particle concentrations Nice of 0.05–0.1 cm−3 at comparatively moderate carbon monoxide (CO) contents of ∼ 90–100 nmol mol−1. Neither under clear-sky nor during in-cloud NPF do the highest Nnm concentrations correlate with the highest CO mixing ratios, suggesting that an elevated pollutant load is not a prerequisite for NPF. Under clear-air conditions, NPF with elevated Nnm (> 8000 cm−3) occurred slightly less often than within clouds. In the presence of cloud ice, NPF with Nnm between 1500–4000 cm−3 was observed about twice as often as under clear-air conditions. NPF was not found when ice water contents exceeded 1000 µmol mol−1 in very cold air (< 195 K) at tropopause levels. This indicates a reduction in NPF once deep convection is prevalent together with the presence of mainly liquid-origin ice particles. Within in situ cirrus near the cold point tropopause, recent NPF or intense events with mixing ration nnm larger than 5000 mg−1 were observed only in about 6 % of the in-cloud NPF data. In determining whether the cloud-internal NPF is attenuated or prevented by the microphysical properties of cloud elements, the integral radius (IR) of the ice cloud population turned out to be indicative. Neither the number of ice particles nor the free distance between the ice particles is clearly related to the NPF rate detected. While the increase in ice particles' mass per time dmdt is proportional to the IR and mainly due to the condensation of water vapour, additional condensation of NPF precursors proceeds at the expense of the NPF rate as the precursor's saturation ratio declines. Numerical simulations show the impact of the IR on the supersaturation of a condensable vapour, such as sulfuric acid, and furthermore illustrate that the IR of the cloud ice determines the effective limitation of NPF rates.

Improvement of the Cloud Microphysics Scheme of the Mesoscale Model at the Japan Meteorological Agency using Space-borne Radar and Microwave Imager of the Global Precipitation Measurement as Reference

In this study, the single-moment 6-class bulk cloud microphysics scheme used in the operational numerical weather prediction system at the Japan Meteorological Agency was improved using the observations of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite as reference values. The original cloud microphysics scheme has the following biases: underestimation of cloud ice compared to the brightness temperature of the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and underestimation of the lower troposphere rain compared to the reflectivity of GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). Furthermore, validation of the dual-frequency rate of reflectivity revealed that the dominant particles in the solid phase of simulation were graupel and deviated from DPR observation. The causes of these issues were investigated using a single-column kinematic model. The underestimation of cloud ice was caused by a high ice-to-snow conversion rate, and the underestimation of precipitation in the lower layers was caused by an excessive number of small-diameter rain particles. The parameterization of microphysics scheme is improved to eliminate the biases in the single-column model. In the forecast obtained using the improved scheme, the underestimation of cloud ice and rain is reduced. Consequently, the prediction errors of hydrometeors were reduced against the GPM satellite observations, and the atmospheric profiles and precipitation forecasts were improved.

Cloud ice fraction governs lightning rate at a global scale

Lightning flash rate is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics, such as cloud ice properties, but this relationship is poorly constrained. Here we analyze 20 years of satellite-derived lightning flash rate data and cloud water data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis above continental and ocean regions at a global scale. We find a robust modified gamma function relationship between cloud ice fraction and lightning rate. Lightning rate increases initially with increasing cloud ice fraction in stratocumulus, liquid clouds. Maximum flash rates are reached at a critical cloud ice fraction value that is associated with high top, large optical thickness, deep convective clouds. Beyond the critical value, lightning rate decreases as the ice fraction increases to values representative of cirrus, ice clouds. We find consistent critical ice fraction values over continental and oceanic regions, respectively, with a lower value over the continent due to greater cloud thickness at similar cloud top height. We suggest that our findings may help improve the accuracy of lightning forecast and hazard prediction.