scholarly journals Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice*

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (98) ◽  
pp. 315-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Eichengreen ◽  
Arnaud Mehl ◽  
Livia Chiţu
Keyword(s):  
World War I ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Alliances ◽  
Foreign Reserve ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Currency Composition

SummaryWe assess the role of economic and security considerations in the currency composition of international reserves. We contrast the ‘Mercury hypothesis’ that currency choice is governed by pecuniary factors familiar to the literature, such as economic size and credibility of major reserve currency issuers, against the ‘Mars hypothesis’ that this depends on geopolitical factors. Using data on foreign reserves of 19 countries before World War I, for which the currency composition of reserves is known and security alliances proliferated, our results lend support to both hypotheses. We find that military alliances boost the share of a currency in the partner’s foreign reserve holdings by about 30 percentage points. These findings speak to the implications of possible US disengagement from global geopolitical affairs. In a hypothetical scenario where the United States withdraws from the world, our estimates suggest that long-term US interest rates could rise by as much as 80 basis points, assuming that the composition of global reserves changes but their level does not.

The Artist as Environmentalist: Ansel Adams, Policy Entrepreneurship, and the Growth of Environmentalism

Public Voices ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
John C. Morris
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Entrepreneur ◽  
Policy Entrepreneurship ◽  
Ansel Adams

The role of the policy entrepreneur in the policy process forms an integral part of our understanding of the formulation and implementation of policy in the United States. For all its theoretical importance, however, little work has been done to develop or test the propositions of entrepreneurship offered by Kingdon (1984). By examining the life of Ansel Adams (1902-1984), this paper explores more fully the concept of policy entrepreneurship and seeks to develop a more robust concept that accounts for the long-term, diffuse series of activities that precede Kingdon’s “stream coupling” in the policy process. The analysis suggests that such an approach offers some promise for capturing a broader spectrum of policy activity.

Reshaping the Economic Structure in Argentina: The Role of External Debt during the Macri Administration (2015–2019)

2021 ◽  
pp. 048661342097642
Author(s):  
Juan E. Santarcángelo ◽  
Juan Manuel Padín
Keyword(s):  
External Debt ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Financial Capital ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Long Term Effects

Argentina’s right-wing shift in the 2015 presidential election concluded twelve years of center-left rule. The elected president, Mauricio Macri, claimed that the economy would experience normalization of existing imbalances and recover its strength in a “new political era.” However, the new administration quickly restored the dominance of neoliberal economic policies through a comprehensive set of initiatives, which centrally included the return to international financial debt and equity markets and submission to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) rules. This article analyzes Argentina’s external-debt-growth process and discusses its objectives and long-term effects. This paper posits that the indebtedness process carried out by the Macri administration—and its modality—not only increased the relevance of financial capital in the Argentine economy but also structurally conditioned any future nonorthodox alternative path of development. This outcome cannot be understood without taking into account the deliberate role of the United States, the IMF, and the top companies that operate in Argentina, as well as the complicity of many political sectors. JEL Classification: H63, F34, F63

Suicidal Ideation Among International Students: The Role of Cultural, Academic, and Interpersonal Factors

2021 ◽  
pp. 001100002110024
Author(s):  
Andrés E. Pérez Rojas ◽  
Na-Yeun Choi ◽  
Minji Yang ◽  
Theodore T. Bartholomew ◽  
Giovanna M. Pérez
Keyword(s):  
International Students ◽  
Suicidal Ideation ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Structural Equation Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Thwarted Belongingness ◽  
Perceived Burdensomeness ◽  
Using Data

We examined two structural equation models of international students’ suicidal ideation using data from 595 international students in two public universities in the United States. The models represented competing hypotheses about the relationships among discrimination, cross-cultural loss, academic distress, thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and suicidal ideation. The findings indicated there were direct, positive links between discrimination, cross-cultural loss, and academic distress to perceived burdensomeness; a direct, positive link between perceived burdensomeness and suicidal ideation; and indirect, positive links between discrimination, cross-cultural loss, and academic distress to suicidal ideation via perceived burdensomeness. The only predictors that related to thwarted belongingness were cross-cultural loss and academic distress, and there were no indirect links to suicidal ideation via thwarted belongingness. In fact, with all other variables in the model, thwarted belongingness was unrelated to suicidal ideation. Finally, academic distress was directly related to suicidal ideation. We discuss implications of the findings.

Mending Broken Hearts

2012 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen L. Idler ◽  
David A. Boulifard ◽  
Richard J. Contrada
Keyword(s):  
Medical Records ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Never Married ◽  
The Social ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Marriage has long been linked to lower risk for adult mortality in population and clinical studies. In a regional sample of patients ( n = 569) undergoing cardiac surgery, we compared 5-year hazards of mortality for married persons with those of widowed, separated or divorced, and never married persons using data from medical records and psychosocial interviews. After adjusting for demographics and pre- and postsurgical health, unmarried persons had 1.90 times the hazard of mortality of married persons; the disaggregated widowed, never married, and divorced or separated groups had similar hazards, as did men and women. The adjusted hazard for immediate postsurgical mortality was 3.33; the adjusted hazard for long-term mortality was 1.71, and this was mediated by married persons’ lower smoking rates. The findings underscore the role of spouses (both male and female) in caregiving during health crises and the social control of health behaviors.

Planning or Improvisation

2020 ◽  
pp. 116-120
Author(s):  
Alasdair Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Governance Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

This chapter assesses the role of planning in the design of governance strategies. Enthusiasm for large-scale planning—also known as overall, comprehensive, long-term, economic, or social planning—boomed and collapsed in twentieth century. At the start of that century, progressive reformers seized on planning as the remedy for the United States' social and economic woes. By the end of the twentieth century, enthusiasm for large-scale planning had collapsed. Plans could be made, but they were unlikely to be obeyed, and even if they were obeyed, they were unlikely to work as predicted. The chapter then explains that leaders should make plans while being realistic about the limits of planning. It is necessary to exercise foresight, set priorities, and design policies that seem likely to accomplish those priorities. Simply by doing this, leaders encourage coordination among individuals and businesses, through conversation about goals and tactics. Neither is imperfect knowledge a total barrier to planning. There is no “law” of unintended consequences: it is not inevitable that government actions will produce entirely unexpected results. The more appropriate stance is modesty about what is known and what can be achieved. Plans that launch big schemes on brittle assumptions are more likely to fail. Plans that proceed more tentatively, that allow room for testing, learning, and adjustment, are less likely to collapse in the face of unexpected results.

Iran: Adversaries and Nuclear Reversal

2020 ◽  
pp. 152-179
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
Comprehensive Plan

This chapter presents an in-depth case study analysis of the Iranian nuclear program from its inception to the country’s ultimate decision to renounce its nuclear ambitions in 2015. The chapter begins by examining the trajectory of the Iranian nuclear program and some of the initial attempts by the international community to persuade Iran to end it. Using archival and interview-based data, this analysis demonstrates the powerful role of inducements offered by the United States and other members of the international community, in conjunction with the election of President Rouhani, that provided a window of opportunity that ultimately led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The chapter concludes with an update about the long-term viability of the Iran deal.

Investing for Growth and Security

2019 ◽  
pp. 193-206
Author(s):  
William G. Gale
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
President Obama ◽  
Transit Systems ◽  
Historical Levels

Besides its investment in people, the federal government makes critical investments in infrastructure and research and development. Because federal spending in these areas has fallen significantly in recent years and interest rates are low relative to historical levels, this chapter proposes sizable increases for both categories. The increases in infrastructure spending will provide the resources needed to restore and update aging roads, bridges, and public transit systems, while the increases in research and development will help the United States to explore cutting-edge technologies. Policymakers should also fund the military’s long-term plans through 2032, as outlined by President Obama, and let spending grow modestly afterward. That would allow for a continuing presence overseas. If a new war broke out, policymakers presumably would provide the additional temporary funds to ensure that America achieved its mission and emerged victorious.

Limited Capacity of Railways for Coal Transportation in India: Evidence from ArcGIS-based Load Flow Study

2020 ◽  
pp. 001946622095310
Author(s):  
Rajesh Gupta ◽  
Ekaterina Kozyreva ◽  
Pavel Chistyakov ◽  
Petr Lavrinenko ◽  
Igor Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Load Flow ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Rail Network ◽  
Coal Transportation ◽  
Traffic Volumes ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Flow Study

How much coal will India need to transport in future and is the rail network poised to handle that requirement are two important questions for the emerging economy. To find answers to these questions, this study creates a distribution model of coal freight traffic on Indian Railways, analyzing the sufficiency of infrastructure for future economic needs. Using data on spatial distribution of coal mines, coal traffic volumes and rail sectional capacities, this study creates sectional capacity maps as main visual tool for analysis. Sections with bottlenecks are identified for next ten years’ coal transport need of the country. The simulation done in this study finds 15% under-delivery for the 900mT coal demand in the country by 2030 due to transport bottlenecks. Based on this analysis, the article presents the conclusions on possible influence of existing conditions of coal transportation on India’s economy in the long-term period and also considers the role of dedicated freight.

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