Contemporaneous and Granger causality among US corn cash and futures prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojie Xu
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

AbstractThis paper examines contemporaneous and Granger causality among US corn futures and seven cash prices from major producing states for January 2006–March 2011. Causal flows from futures to cash prices are identified with contemporaneous and in-sample Granger causality tests but not with the out-of-sample Granger causality test. While no interstate in-sample or out-of-sample Granger causality is found, contemporaneous causal linkages are revealed. No causality from cash to futures prices is determined.

THE LINKAGE BETWEEN EXPORT AND INCOME: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM BANGLADESH

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (01) ◽  
pp. 79-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
RUHUL A. SALIM ◽  
MOHAMMAD A. HOSSAIN
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Expansion ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This article empirically re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis in the context of Bangladesh using the quarterly data from 1973:1 to 2005:4. The standard time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and Granger causality tests within the error correction modelling (ECM) are used for this purpose. The results from cointegration analysis suggest that there is stable long-run relationship between exports and income and the results from Granger causality test based on the ECM shows unidirectional causal relationship between exports and income. Thus, these results validate the country's export expansion programs to achieve long-run income growth.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of Oil Revenue and the Performance of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 203
Author(s):  
Lawrence, U. Egbadju ◽  
Victor, E. Oriavwote
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
International Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

<p><em>The main objective of the research is to empirically investigate the relevance of oil revenue to agricultural development in Nigeria. This is important because despite the numerous efforts by successive governments to diversify the economy, the level of agricultural output still remains abysmally low. The fallen oil price in the international market also makes this research to be timely. The research covered the period between 1981 and 2014. The cointegration technique and the granger causality tests were used for the study. The result indicates that oil revenue is not statistically significant in explaining the level of economic growth. The result of the granger causality test indicates that oil revenue does not granger cause agricultural output. The result is symptomatic since it casts some doubts on the diversification policies of successive governments in Nigeria. The result recommends, amongst others concerted efforts to revamp the agricultural sector through judicious use of the dwindling oil revenue and foreign investors should be encouraged to go into the agricultural sector in Nigeria.</em><em></em></p>

scholarly journals Vector autoregressive-based Granger causality test in the presence of instabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Rossi ◽  
Yiru Wang
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Robust Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

In this article, we review Granger causality tests that are robust to the presence of instabilities in a vector autoregressive framework. We also introduce the gcrobustvar command, which illustrates the procedure in Stata. In the presence of instabilities, the Granger causality robust test is more powerful than the traditional Granger causality test.

OUT-OF-SAMPLE TESTS FOR GRANGER CAUSALITY

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 598-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Chao ◽  
Valentina Corradi ◽  
Norman R. Swanson
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Sample Type ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Original Definition ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Ability Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Predictive Content

Clive W.J. Granger has summarized his personal viewpoint on testing for causality in numerous articles over the past 30 years and has outlined what he considers to be a useful operational version of his original definition of Granger causality, which he notes is partially alluded to in the Ph.D. dissertation of Norbert Wiener. This operational version of Granger causality is based on a comparison of the one-step-ahead predictive ability of competing models. However, Granger concludes his discussion by noting that it is common practice to test for Granger causality using in-sample F-tests. The practice of using in-sample type Granger causality tests continues to be prevalent. In this paper we develop simple (nonlinear) out-of-sample predictive ability tests of the Granger non-causality null hypothesis. In addition, Monte Carlo experiments are used to investigate the finite sample properites of the test. An empirical illustration shows that the choice of in-sample versus out-of-sample Granger causality tests can crucially affect the conclusions about the predictive content of money for output.

scholarly journals Causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns in China and India: evidence from linear and nonlinear panel and time series models

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheung-Chi Chow ◽  
Juncal Cunado ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
China And India ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Housing Returns

AbstractIn this paper, we modify the multivariate nonlinear causality test to be panel nonlinear causality test and we apply these and other existing related tests to examine the causal relationship between growth in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and real housing returns in China and India using quarterly data from 2003:01 to 2012:04. Both panel linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests suggest the existence of only linear and nonlinear unidirectional causality relationships from growth in EPU to real housing returns in both China and India, and bivariate linear Granger causality tests suggest the existence of only linear unidirectional causality relationship from growth in EPU to real housing returns only in China. However, nonlinear bivariate Granger causality tests conclude the existence of nonlinear bidirectional causality relationships between growth in EPU and real housing returns in both China and India and cross bivariate linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests discover that there is only a linear causality relationship from Indian growth in EPU to Chinese housing returns. The results confirm the relevance of EPU data to better understand and predict the future behaviour of housing market returns in these countries.

scholarly journals Existe Alguma Relação entre Retornos Contábeis e Retornos do Mercado de Ações no Brasil?

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Newton Carneiro Affonso da Costa Jr. ◽  
Roberto Meurer ◽  
César Medeiros Cupertino
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between accounting and stock market returns of Brazilian companies on a quarterly basis. The sample consisted of 97 companies with stocks traded in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange from January of 1995 to March of 2007. A Granger causality test was applied to the two return series for each of the sampled companies. The results of the causality tests suggested that there is weak evidence that accounting returns lead stock market returns rather than the reverse.

scholarly journals Forecasting Performance of Lumber Futures Prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Shiv N. Mehrotra ◽  
Douglas R. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Information Assimilation ◽  
Forecasting Performance

We test the forecasting power and information content of lumber futures prices traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, from 1995 to 2013, at four forecast horizons. A Mincer-Zarnowitz regression finds evidence of statistically significant forecasting power at all forecast horizons. The results also support the presence of a time-varying risk premium for the shorter forecast horizons. A Granger causality test provides evidence that lumber futures prices lag spot prices in information assimilation over longer forecast horizons, while neither lagging nor leading over shorter forecast horizons.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices: Evidence From Karachi Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-123
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asif Ali ◽  
Muhammad Asif Ali ◽  
Dr. Naveed Hussain Shah
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the relationship between futures prices and their underlying spot prices of the stocks trading on Pakistan stock market. Data on the monthly closing prices of future contracts and their underlying stocks of 30 companies for the period January 2004 to June 2014 have been taken for analysis. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dicky Fuller test for unit root testing, Johnson Co-integration test, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model are used. The results confirms significant long term relationship between futures prices and the associated Spot prices in case of 26 companies. The report of Granger causality test indicates that a Bi-directional causality lack to exist in case of each security, VECM shows that Spot prices for current month are effected by previous month prices in case of 7 companies, while futures prices of current month are affected by previous month prices in case of 4 companies. VECM illustrates that the volatility shocks in spot market are less effected by futures market, however the volatility shocks in corresponding futures market were strongly and significantly affected by spot market volatility.

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