scholarly journals Relationship Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices: Evidence From Karachi Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-123
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asif Ali ◽  
Muhammad Asif Ali ◽  
Dr. Naveed Hussain Shah
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the relationship between futures prices and their underlying spot prices of the stocks trading on Pakistan stock market. Data on the monthly closing prices of future contracts and their underlying stocks of 30 companies for the period January 2004 to June 2014 have been taken for analysis. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dicky Fuller test for unit root testing, Johnson Co-integration test, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model are used. The results confirms significant long term relationship between futures prices and the associated Spot prices in case of 26 companies. The report of Granger causality test indicates that a Bi-directional causality lack to exist in case of each security, VECM shows that Spot prices for current month are effected by previous month prices in case of 7 companies, while futures prices of current month are affected by previous month prices in case of 4 companies. VECM illustrates that the volatility shocks in spot market are less effected by futures market, however the volatility shocks in corresponding futures market were strongly and significantly affected by spot market volatility.

scholarly journals Stochastic Pattern of Major Indices of Bombay Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 6774-6779
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Portfolio Managers

It is interesting to get inside and draw a meaningful inference by studying the movement of various stock indices. Portfolio managers, analysts, and investors are very keen to know about the technical pattern of indices. They consider the stock market is one of the economic barometers or market indicators of an economy. Indian financial market has undergone radical and vital change during the past few years. The purpose of this study is to check stochastic movements in selected indices and to signify nexus and interdependency among one another by the virtue of econometric analysis. The study comprises of daily closing value from 1st April 2014-1st April 2018, including major indices i.e. S&P-BSE 100; S&P-BSE-200, S&P BSE-500, S&P-BSE:Large cap, S&P-BSE:Mid-cap, S&P-BSE:small-cap, and BSE-SENSEX. Moreover, typical econometrics tool Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Granger Causality Test, and Johansen Co-integration Test were implemented to conclude the result. The study is one of its kinds to analyze the static and pair wise relationship among seven BSE indices along with the direction of their expected future movement that would help practitioners, policy makers and investors in anticipating the future movement of the indices. The Dickey-Fuller and Johanson test administered to analyze unit root and co-integration among the series in long run, followed by Granger causality test to observe the route of the short term relationship among various indices. The tests reveal uni-directional and in some cases bi-directional causality in selected indices. Further, it has been observed that due to co-integration, prices of different indices can’t move far away from one another [1]. This stochastic study delves volatility pattern of some major indices of Bombay stock exchange with the help of econometric tools. It clearly delineates nexus of all the indices and provided an explanation to appreciate concrete conduct of one series into a mutual relationship. Hence, investors or analyst may predict the movements, interdependency and their relationship in a significant manner.

scholarly journals The Lead and Lag Relationship Between Spot Market and Futures Market: Empirical Evidence From Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 192
Author(s):  
Nguyen Anh Phong ◽  
Ho Thi Hong Minh ◽  
Ngo Phu Thanh ◽  
Tran Nguyen Thanh Son
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the lead and lag relationship between Spot market and Futures market in Vietnam. In this study, we employ the data collected from stock-related database in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and Ha Noi Stock Exchange. The data of daily closing prices of VN30 index (the spot price) and VN30F1M (the 1-month future price of VN30 index) are then collected. We apply various methods, namely: Granger causality test, Johansen co-integration test, Vector Error Correlation Model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. The result of this paper is consistent with previous research. It finds strong evidence that Spot market leads Futures market in Vietnam stock market in both the short-run and long-run. Therefore, Spot market play a discovery role in which investors can obtain useful information from Spot market to improve their portfolio profit and minimize the risk. Besides, regulators can rely on this finding to come up with better policies and further develop Futures market.

scholarly journals Forecasting Performance of Lumber Futures Prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Shiv N. Mehrotra ◽  
Douglas R. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Information Assimilation ◽  
Forecasting Performance

We test the forecasting power and information content of lumber futures prices traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, from 1995 to 2013, at four forecast horizons. A Mincer-Zarnowitz regression finds evidence of statistically significant forecasting power at all forecast horizons. The results also support the presence of a time-varying risk premium for the shorter forecast horizons. A Granger causality test provides evidence that lumber futures prices lag spot prices in information assimilation over longer forecast horizons, while neither lagging nor leading over shorter forecast horizons.

scholarly journals Dynamic linkage between nifty-fifty and sectorial indices of national stock exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
Kamaljit Singh ◽  
Vinod Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Service ◽  
Causality Test

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the trend and pattern of the Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. An attempt has been also made to find out the causal relationship among the Nifty-Fifty and NSE sectorial Indices. The unit root test and Granger-causality test has been applied to check the causal relationship between Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. The finding of the study shows that the financial service sector had performed better and followed by the banking sector among all the indices while the Pharma sector and the Realty sector were Under-performed in comparison to other indices. The Nifty-Fifty has been found less volatile in comparison to other sectorial indices however Realty sector indices show the highest volatility during the study period.

The Relationship Between Stock Market Indices of the Biggest Six Economies of the European Union and BIST 100

2020 ◽  
pp. 257-275
Author(s):  
Serdar Ögel ◽  
Fatih Temizel
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Var Model ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock market indices of the biggest six economies of the European Union and BIST 100. In this context, this study used the daily time series regarding indices of DAX for Germany, CAC 40 for France, FTSE MIB for Italy, IBEX 35 for Spain, AEX for Holland, FTSE 100 for United Kingdom, and BIST 100 for Turkey from 2014 to 2018. To test whether there is a co-integration relationship among indices, Johansen co-integration test was used. Since a co-integration relationship was not found between series, causality relationship between the European stock market indices and Turkey was tested with Granger causality test by establishing standard VAR model. As a result, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was found from DAX, FTSE 100, CAC 40, IBEX 35, and AEX to BIST 100 according to lag length 1 and 2. However, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was only found from FTSE MIB to BIST 100 for lag length 1. For lag length 1 and 2, no causality relationship was found from BIST 100 to the selected European stock market indices.

scholarly journals Granger Causality Between Local Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
Sri Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Integration Test

Objective - This study examines the causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in West Kalimantan between 2009 and 2015. This research resulted in the enactment of Wagner's Law and/or Keynes's Theory in West Kalimantan leading the local government to take the right policies as an effort towards improving economic development. Methodology/Technique - By using panel data that combines time series data and cross-site data, it will be estimated by the Granger causality test which begins with a stationary test and co-integration test. Based on the co-integration tests, the results suggest that there is a long-term relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the Granger causality test, there is no reciprocal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Findings - A direct relationship in the form of the influence of government expenditure on economic growth in West Kalimantan. Novelty - These results are in line with the Keynes's Theory through its national income function. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Government Expenditure; Economic Growth; Co-integration; Causality. JEL Classification: F40, F43, F49.

scholarly journals Dose Remittances Matter for Openness and Financial Stability: Evidence From Least Developed Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Miao ◽  
Md. Qamruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
System Gmm ◽  
Integration Test

The study's motivation is to gauge the effects of remittances on openness: financial and economic openness and financial stability in least developed countries (LDCs) for the period spanning 1975–2018. The study applies Generalized Moment of Methods (GMM) and System-GMM to detect the magnitude of remittances, gross capital formation, and government debt on openness and financial stability, and their directional association is established by performing a Granger causality test with System-GMM specification. The results of cross-sectional dependency ascertain the presence of a common dynamic among the research units; on the other hand, both first, and second-generation unit root tests establish that variables are integrated either at level or after the first difference, neither variables are exposed to order of integration after second difference. A panel co-integration test based on error correction confirms the availability of the long-run association among variables. Study findings with GMM and System-GMM estimation expose positive statistically significant effects of remittance inflows to economic and financial openness and financial stability. In LDCs, remittance inflows positively augment economic and financial openness; moreover, financial stability remittances play a critical role. The study implemented the Granger causality test with System-GMM specification, and results disclosed the feedback hypothesis that is bidirectional causality availability in the tested empirical causal model.JEL Classifications: F24, F43, P34.

Price Discovery in precious metals market: A study of Gold

GIS Business ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
Dr. Narender Kumar ◽  
Mrs. Sunita Arora
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Commodity Exchange ◽  
Long Time

Gold is the oldest known precious metal on this earth and for a long time it has been used as a standard currency. The present study has been undertaken with an attempt to analyze whether Indian futures market is playing its role of price discovery in case of gold or not. For the purpose of study, data for spot and futures prices for a period of four and a half years starting from June 2005 to December 2009 has been collected from the website of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited, India’s largest commodity exchange in terms of value of trading on commodity exchanges in India. Data has been tested for statioanrity and was found non stationary. It was then transformed to make it stationary. On the basis of Johansen’s cointegration test, series of spot and futures prices were found cointgrated. Granger Causality test was applied on stationary data. The results of the study show that futures market in India is performing its role of price discovery in case of Gold. Keywords: Price Discovery, Commodity Market, Granger Causality, Cointegration.

PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR, IDR-USD TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA: PENERAPAN MODEL GARCH

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Rahmadiva Dianitha Danial ◽  
Brady Rikumahu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh  volatilitas return nilai Kurs IDR-USD terhadap volatilitas return pasar saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Dari pengambilan data sekunder dari 3 Januari 2012 hingga 29 September 2017 diperoleh data time series sebanyak 1404 hari. Data  dianalisis dengan model  GARCH dan Uji Granger Causality. Berdasarkan hasil permodelan GARCH(1,1), volatilitas kurs mempengaruhi volatilitas IHSG. Uji Granger Causality menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas kurs  dan IHSG memiliki hubungan yang kausal dua arah. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa informasi kurs dapat memprediksikan kondisi harga indeks saham di pasar modal di periode hari berikutnya, begitupun sebaliknya. Prediksi tepat yang dilakukan oleh investor akan mengurangi risiko dan meningkatkan imbal hasil dalam berinvestasi jika pasar uang maupun pasar modal yang sedang bergejolak.  Kata Kunci: GARCH, Volatilitas, IHSG, Nilai Tukar ABSTRACT This study aims to examine the effect of the volatility of the return on the IDR-USD exchange rate toward  the volatility of stock market returns in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. From the data collection from 3 January 2012 until 29 September 2017 we obtained 1404 time series. Analyzing data, this study used  GARCH modeling and Granger Causality Test. The selected GARCH (1,1) modeling result shows that the volatility of exchange rate influences the volatility of Indonesian Composite Index.  Granger Causality test shows that the volatility of exchange rate and volatility of Indonesian Composite Index have two-way granger cause. This study indicates that exchange rate information can predict the condition of stock price index in capital market and movement of Indonesian Composite Index (ICI) can predict exchange rate movement in foreign exchange market. Appropriate predictions by investors will reduce the risk and increase the yield in investing if the money market and capital markets are fluctuating high. Keywords: GARCH, Volatility, ICI, Exchange Rate

Dynamic linkages among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market: evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shelly Singhal ◽  
Sangita Choudhary ◽  
Pratap Chandra Biswal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context. Design/methodology/approach This work uses auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test to examine the long-run association among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market. Further to test the causality, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test is used. Daily data ranging from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2018 is used in this study. Findings Findings of this study suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among oil price, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market when oil price is taken as dependent variable. Further, this study observes the bi-directional causality between Norwegian stock market and exchange rate and unidirectional causality between oil and Norwegian stock market (from oil to stock market). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this the first study in context of Norway to explore the long-run association and causal relationships among international crude oil price, exchange rate and stock market index. Particularly, association of exchange rate and stock market largely remains unexplored for Norwegian economy. Further, majority of studies conducted in Norwegian setup have considered the period up to year 2010 and association of these variables is found to be time varying. Finally, this study uses ARDL bound co-integration test and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test. These methodologies have been used in literature in context of other countries like India and Mexico but not yet applied to study the Norwegian case.

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