scholarly journals Importance of age structure in models of the response of upper trophic levels to fishing and climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1270-1283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis W. Botsford ◽  
Matthew D. Holland ◽  
Jameal F. Samhouri ◽  
J. Wilson White ◽  
Alan Hastings
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Resonance Effect ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Ecosystem Models ◽  
Age Structured

Abstract Botsford, L. W., Holland, M. D., Samhouri, J. F., White, J. W., and Hastings, A. 2011. Importance of age structure in models of the response of upper trophic levels to fishing and climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1270–1283. There is a growing effort to use predictions of the physical state of the ocean under climate change to forecast the response of marine ecosystems. Many of these forecasts use ecosystem models rather than age-structured population models to describe upper trophic level (UTL) species. We illustrate the potential effects of climate on age-structured populations, then illustrate the ways in which ecosystem models might not depict adequately: (i) long-term changes in abundance, and (ii) variability attributable to cohort resonance. We simulated two generic species with different life histories, a short-lived semelparous species (e.g. salmon), and a long-lived iteroparous species (e.g. cod). For both species, juvenile survival was varied, first with white noise, then with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as environmental signals. Variability in recruitment increased with fishing and became particularly sensitive to forcing at time-scales near the mean age of reproduction, consistent with the cohort resonance effect. Ecosystem models without age structure do not predict this behaviour, particularly when the ecosystem model incorrectly predicts the effective steepness of the stock–recruitment relationship, or the age structure is approximated by a stage-structured model. We suggest that ecosystem models of UTLs include full representations of age structure, fitted to available population data.

scholarly journals Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 113 (3) ◽  
pp. 793-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi M. Levine ◽  
Ke Zhang ◽  
Marcos Longo ◽  
Alessandro Baccini ◽  
Oliver L. Phillips ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Ecological Resilience ◽  
Biomass Composition ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem Model ◽  
Age Structured

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

scholarly journals Towards a replicator dynamics model of age structured populations

2021 ◽  
Vol 82 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Argasinski ◽  
M. Broom
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Replicator Dynamics ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Reproductive Value ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Structured Population Model ◽  
Age Class ◽  
Age Structured

AbstractWe present a new modelling framework combining replicator dynamics, the standard model of frequency dependent selection, with an age-structured population model. The new framework allows for the modelling of populations consisting of competing strategies carried by individuals who change across their life cycle. Firstly the discretization of the McKendrick von Foerster model is derived. We show that the Euler–Lotka equation is satisfied when the new model reaches a steady state (i.e. stable frequencies between the age classes). This discretization consists of unit age classes where the timescale is chosen so that only a fraction of individuals play a single game round. This implies a linear dynamics and individuals not killed during the round are moved to the next age class; linearity means that the system is equivalent to a large Bernadelli–Lewis–Leslie matrix. Then we use the methodology of multipopulation games to derive two, mutually equivalent systems of equations. The first contains equations describing the evolution of the strategy frequencies in the whole population, completed by subsystems of equations describing the evolution of the age structure for each strategy. The second contains equations describing the changes of the general population’s age structure, completed with subsystems of equations describing the selection of the strategies within each age class. We then present the obtained system of replicator dynamics in the form of the mixed ODE-PDE system which is independent of the chosen timescale, and much simpler. The obtained results are illustrated by the example of the sex ratio model which shows that when different mortalities of the sexes are assumed, the sex ratio of 0.5 is obtained but that Fisher’s mechanism, driven by the reproductive value of the different sexes, is not in equilibrium.

scholarly journals When does selection favor learning from the old? Social Learning in age-structured populations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik_Deffner ◽  
Richard McElreath
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Adaptive Behavior ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Cultural Transmission ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Age Structured

Culture and demography jointly facilitate flexible human adaptation, yet it still remains unclear how social learning operates in populations with age structure. Specifically, how do demographic processes affect the adaptive value of culture, cultural adaptation and population growth and when does selection favor copying the behavior of older vs. younger individuals? Here, we develop and analyze a mathematical model of the evolution of social learning in a population with different age classes. We find that adding age structure alone does not resolve Rogers' paradox, i.e. the finding that social learning can evolve without increasing population fitness. Cultural transmission in combination with demographic filtering, however, can lead to much higher adaptation levels. This is because by increasing proportions of adaptive behavior in older age classes, demographic filtering constitutes an additional adaptive force that social learners can benefit from. Moreover, older age classes tend to have higher proportions of adaptive behavior when the environment is relatively stable and adaptive behavior is hard to acquire but confers large survival advantages. Through individual-based simulations comparing temporal and spatial variability in the environment, we find a ``copy older over younger models''-strategy only evolves readily when social learning is erroneous. The opposite ``copy the younger''-strategy is adaptive when the environment fluctuates frequently but still maintains large proportions of social learners. Our results demonstrate that age structure can substantially alter cultural dynamics and should be addressed in further theoretical and empirical work.

On the use of a simple primary productivity model to assess the skill of a physical ocean model

2011 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lakshmi Kantha ◽  
Sandro Carniel ◽  
Carol Clayson ◽  
Mauro Sclavo
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Ecosystem Models ◽  
Color Data ◽  
Satellite Ocean Color

AbstractEcosystem models, used mainly in studying the interactions between different trophic levels, can also be used for ocean circulation model skill assessment, with the help of satellite ocean color data. This paper presents how the use of a simple NPZ primary productivity ecosystem model, coupled to a hydrodynamical model, can help assessing the skill of the physical ocean model in depicting realistically the prevailing mesoscale features of the upper layers of the Gulf of Mexico. Results indicate that the physical model effectively reproduces the mesoscale features of circulation underlying the resulting chlorophyll concentrations, especially when circulation fronts exist.

scholarly journals AgeStrucNb: Software for Simulating and Detecting Changes in the Effective Number of Breeders (Nb)

2020 ◽  
Vol 111 (5) ◽  
pp. 491-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiago Antao ◽  
Ted Cosart ◽  
Brian Trethewey ◽  
Robin S Waples ◽  
Mike W Ackerman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Histories ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Effective Number Of Breeders ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Publication Quality

Abstract Estimation of the effective number of breeders per reproductive event (Nb) using single sample DNA-marker-based methods has rapidly grown in recent years. However, estimating Nb is difficult in age-structured populations because the performance of estimators is influenced by the Nb / Ne ratio, which varies among species with different life histories. We provide a computer program, AgeStrucNb, to simulate age-structured populations (including life history) and also estimate Nb. The AgeStrucNb program is composed of 4 major components to simulate, subsample, estimate, and then visualize Nb time series data. AgeStrucNb allows users to also quantify the precision and accuracy of any set of loci or sample size to estimate Nb for many species and populations. AgeStrucNb allows users to conduct power analysis to evaluate sensitivity to detect changes in Nb or the power to detect a correlation between trends in Nb and environmental variables (e.g., temperature, habitat quality, predator or pathogen abundance) that could be driving changes in Nb. The software provides Nb estimates for empirical data sets using the LDNe (linkage disequilibrium) method, includes publication-quality output graphs, and outputs genotype files in Genepop format for use in other programs. AgeStrucNb will help advance the application of genetic markers for monitoring Nb, which will help biologists to detect population declines and growth, which is crucial for research and conservation of natural and managed populations.

VEMAP 2: MONTHLY ECOSYSTEM MODEL RESPONSES TO U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE, 1994-2100

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. AULENBACH ◽  
C. DALY ◽  
H. H. FISHER ◽  
W. P. GIBSON ◽  
C. KAUFMAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Model

VEMAP 2: ANNUAL ECOSYSTEM MODEL RESPONSES TO U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE, 1994-2100

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. AULENBACH ◽  
C. DALY ◽  
H. H. FISHER ◽  
W. P. GIBSON ◽  
C. KAUFMAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Model

Relationship between morphometrics and trophic levels in deep-sea fishes

2020 ◽  
Vol 637 ◽  
pp. 225-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
MA Ladds ◽  
MH Pinkerton ◽  
E Jones ◽  
LM Durante ◽  
MR Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Stable Isotopes ◽  
Trophic Level ◽  
Deep Sea ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Fish Size ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Gape Size ◽  
Morphological Variables

Marine food webs are structured, in part, by predator gape size. Species found in deep-sea environments may have evolved such that they can consume prey of a wide range of sizes, to maximise resource intake in a low-productivity ecosystem. Estimates of gape size are central to some types of ecosystem model that determine which prey are available to predators, but cannot always be measured directly. Deep-sea species are hypothesized to have larger gape sizes than shallower-water species relative to their body size and, because of pronounced adaptive foraging behaviour, show only a weak relationship between gape size and trophic level. Here we present new data describing selective morphological measurements and gape sizes of 134 osteichthyan and chondrichthyan species from the deep sea (200-1300 m) off New Zealand. We describe how gape size (height, width and area) varied with factors including fish size, taxonomy (class and order within a class) and trophic level estimated from stable isotopes. For deep-sea species, there was a strong relationship between gape size and fish size, better predicted by body mass than total length, which varied by taxonomic group. Results show that predictions of gape size can be made from commonly measured morphological variables. No relationship between gape size and trophic level was found, likely a reflection of using trophic level estimates from stable isotopes as opposed to the commonly used estimates from FishBase. These results support the hypothesis that deep-sea fish are generalists within their environment, including suspected scavenging, even at the highest trophic levels.

scholarly journals Elevated temperature and browning increase dietary methylmercury, but decrease essential fatty acids at the base of lake food webs

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pianpian Wu ◽  
Martin J. Kainz ◽  
Fernando Valdés ◽  
Siwen Zheng ◽  
Katharina Winter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fatty Acids ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Food Webs ◽  
Essential Fatty Acids ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Essential Nutrients ◽  
Aquatic Food Webs ◽  
Aquatic Food

AbstractClimate change scenarios predict increases in temperature and organic matter supply from land to water, which affect trophic transfer of nutrients and contaminants in aquatic food webs. How essential nutrients, such as polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and potentially toxic contaminants, such as methylmercury (MeHg), at the base of aquatic food webs will be affected under climate change scenarios, remains unclear. The objective of this outdoor mesocosm study was to examine how increased water temperature and terrestrially-derived dissolved organic matter supply (tDOM; i.e., lake browning), and the interaction of both, will influence MeHg and PUFA in organisms at the base of food webs (i.e. seston; the most edible plankton size for zooplankton) in subalpine lake ecosystems. The interaction of higher temperature and tDOM increased the burden of MeHg in seston (< 40 μm) and larger sized plankton (microplankton; 40–200 μm), while the MeHg content per unit biomass remained stable. However, PUFA decreased in seston, but increased in microplankton, consisting mainly of filamentous algae, which are less readily bioavailable to zooplankton. We revealed elevated dietary exposure to MeHg, yet decreased supply of dietary PUFA to aquatic consumers with increasing temperature and tDOM supply. This experimental study provides evidence that the overall food quality at the base of aquatic food webs deteriorates during ongoing climate change scenarios by increasing the supply of toxic MeHg and lowering the dietary access to essential nutrients of consumers at higher trophic levels.

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