scholarly journals 624Integrating human behaviour models with epidemiology to frame complex health problems

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabia Khan
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Human Behaviour ◽  
Epidemiological Methods ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Behaviour Models ◽  
Complex Health Problems ◽  
Holistic Manner ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Abstract Focus of Presentation Health problems are complex due to multiple interactions whose outcomes are not easily predicted with traditional epidemiology methods. The problems themselves require careful evaluation. Predictive models of human behaviour are potentially powerful tools to frame health problems, especially if the models can link the attributes and behaviour of individuals with the dynamics of the social and environmental systems within which they operate. We explore this potential by proposing a framework combining two modelling approaches — social network analysis (SNA) and agent-based modelling (ABM) - with epidemiological methods. We then apply this framework to understand why measles vaccination rates are decreasing across the world. Findings These techniques allowed us to understand the etiologic implications of heterogeneity within the population, social interaction, and environmental influences simultaneously, and to explore mechanistic interactions, feedback loops, and reciprocity between exposures and outcomes. This approach allowed us to frame complex social factors of health and disease in a holistic manner. Conclusions/Implications The proposed framework allows investigators to analyse complex health problems in a holistic manner. However, both SNA and ABM, and other modelling tools, are still too compartmentalised in application, despite the strong methodological and conceptual parallels between their uses in different disciplines. Key messages A fully integrated approach is needed to understanding complex health problems, which combines modelling approaches and the disciplinary insights of epidemiology and public health.

scholarly journals Integrating models of human behaviour between the individual and population levels to inform conservation interventions

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1781) ◽  
pp. 20180053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. M. Dobson ◽  
Emiel de Lange ◽  
Aidan Keane ◽  
Harriet Ibbett ◽  
E. J. Milner-Gulland
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Human Behaviour ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conservation Interventions ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Conservation takes place within social–ecological systems, and many conservation interventions aim to influence human behaviour in order to push these systems towards sustainability. Predictive models of human behaviour are potentially powerful tools to support these interventions. This is particularly true if the models can link the attributes and behaviour of individuals with the dynamics of the social and environmental systems within which they operate. Here we explore this potential by showing how combining two modelling approaches (social network analysis, SNA, and agent-based modelling, ABM) could lead to more robust insights into a particular type of conservation intervention. We use our simple model, which simulates knowledge of ranger patrols through a hunting community and is based on empirical data from a Cambodian protected area, to highlight the complex, context-dependent nature of outcomes of information-sharing interventions, depending both on the configuration of the network and the attributes of the agents. We conclude by reflecting that both SNA and ABM, and many other modelling tools, are still too compartmentalized in application, either in ecology or social science, despite the strong methodological and conceptual parallels between their uses in different disciplines. Even a greater sharing of methods between disciplines is insufficient, however; given the impact of conservation on both the social and ecological aspects of systems (and vice versa), a fully integrated approach is needed, combining both the modelling approaches and the disciplinary insights of ecology and social science. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.

scholarly journals Time to Move from Vertical to Horizontal Approach in our COVID-19 Response in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 28-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olayinka Ilesanmi ◽  
Aanuoluwapo Afolabi
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
National Health System ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Specific Measure ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has adversely affected the already weak health system in Nigeria. The choice of whether to use vertical or integrated approach in solving health problems is determined by the peculiarity of the challenges. Vertical programs imply a variety of specific interventions that have not been fully integrated into the health system. The COVID-19 response in Nigeria still operates almost a vertical approach which is headed by the Federal Government through the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). Vertical healthcare programs address health problems through the application of specific measure(s). However, vertical approach alone has proved insufficient in the containment and control of COVID-19. The health system with the integrated services option is required in the proper management of COVID-19. The development of strategies by policymakers is required in the integration of COVID-19 response into the national health system.

A Fast, Fully Integrated Approach to Early Field Development Resource Evaluation and Value Assessment: Madu-Anyala Project - Nigeria

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Innocent Okoro ◽  
Jennifer Krolow ◽  
Djuro Novakovic ◽  
Adeniyi Aladesulu ◽  
Kendall Reynolds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Value Assessment ◽  
Resource Evaluation ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Development Resource

A Fully Integrated Approach to Component Zooming Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

2004 ◽  
Vol 128 (3) ◽  
pp. 579-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vassilios Pachidis ◽  
Pericles Pilidis ◽  
Fabien Talhouarn ◽  
Anestis Kalfas ◽  
Ioannis Templalexis
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Computational Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Engine Performance ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
High Fidelity ◽  
Performance Simulation ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Engine Component ◽  
Simulation Strategy

Background . This study focuses on a simulation strategy that will allow the performance characteristics of an isolated gas turbine engine component, resolved from a detailed, high-fidelity analysis, to be transferred to an engine system analysis carried out at a lower level of resolution. This work will enable component-level, complex physical processes to be captured and analyzed in the context of the whole engine performance, at an affordable computing resource and time. Approach. The technique described in this paper utilizes an object-oriented, zero-dimensional (0D) gas turbine modeling and performance simulation system and a high-fidelity, three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) component model. The work investigates relative changes in the simulated engine performance after coupling the 3D CFD component to the 0D engine analysis system. For the purposes of this preliminary investigation, the high-fidelity component communicates with the lower fidelity cycle via an iterative, semi-manual process for the determination of the correct operating point. This technique has the potential to become fully automated, can be applied to all engine components, and does not involve the generation of a component characteristic map. Results. This paper demonstrates the potentials of the “fully integrated” approach to component zooming by using a 3D CFD intake model of a high bypass ratio turbofan as a case study. The CFD model is based on the geometry of the intake of the CFM56-5B2 engine. The high-fidelity model can fully define the characteristic of the intake at several operating condition and is subsequently used in the 0D cycle analysis to provide a more accurate, physics-based estimate of intake performance (i.e., pressure recovery) and hence, engine performance, replacing the default, empirical values. A detailed comparison between the baseline engine performance (empirical pressure recovery) and the engine performance obtained after using the coupled, high-fidelity component is presented in this paper. The analysis carried out by this study demonstrates relative changes in the simulated engine performance larger than 1%. Conclusions. This investigation proves the value of the simulation strategy followed in this paper and completely justifies (i) the extra computational effort required for a more automatic link between the high-fidelity component and the 0D cycle, and (ii) the extra time and effort that is usually required to create and run a 3D CFD engine component, especially in those cases where more accurate, high-fidelity engine performance simulation is required.

A Driver's Mind

2019 ◽  
pp. 429-454
Author(s):  
Marco Lützenberger
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Human Behaviour ◽  
Infrastructure Management ◽  
Driver Behaviour ◽  
Human Driver ◽  
Psychological Point ◽  
Factors Of Influence ◽  
Traffic Systems ◽  
Behaviour Models ◽  
Traffic Simulations

Over the last decade, traffic simulation frameworks have advanced into an indispensible tool for traffic planning and infrastructure management. For these simulations, sophisticated models are used to “mimic” traffic systems in a lifelike fashion. In most cases, these models focus on a rather technical scope. Human factors, such as drivers' behaviours are either neglected or “estimated” without any proven connection to reality. This chapter presents an analysis of psychological driver models in order to establish such a connection. In order to do so, human driver behaviour is introduced from a psychological point of view, and state-of-the-art conceptualisations are analysed to identify factors that determine human traffic behaviour. These factors are explained in more detail, and their appliances in human behaviour models for traffic simulations are discussed. This chapter does not provide a comprehensive mapping from simulation requirements to particular characteristics of human driver behaviour but clarifies the assembly of human traffic behaviour, identifies relevant factors of influence, and thus, serves as a guideline for the development of human behaviour models for traffic simulations.

Gravity and Magnetic Methods

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Carruthers ◽  
John D. Cornwell
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Gravity Data ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Rock Properties ◽  
Magnetic Data ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Continental Shelves ◽  
Gravity And Magnetic ◽  
Gravity And Magnetic Data

Lateral variations in the density and magnetization of the rocks within the crust give rise to "anomalies" in the Earth's gravity and magnetic fields. These anomalies can be measured and interpreted in terms of the geology both in a qualitative sense, by mapping out trends and changes in anomaly style, and quantitatively, by creating models of the subsurface which reproduce the observed fields. Such interpretations are generally less definitive in themselves than the results from seismic surveys (see chapter 12), but the data are widely available and can provide information in areas where other methods are ineffective or have not been applied. As the different geophysical techniques respond to specific rock properties such as density, magnetization, and acoustic velocity, the results are complementary, and a fully integrated approach to data collection and interpretation is generally more effective than the sum of its parts assessed on an individual basis. Gravity and magnetic data have been acquired, at least to a reconnaissance scale, over most of the world. In particular, the release into the public domain of satellite altimetry information (combined with improved methods of data processing) means that there is gravity coverage to a similar standard for most of the offshore region to within about 50 km of the coast. Magnetic anomalies recorded from satellites provide global coverage, but the high altitude of the observations means that only large-scale features extending over many 10s of kilometers are delineated. Reconnaissance aeromagnetic surveys with flight lines 10-20 km apart provide a lateral anomaly resolution similar to that of the satellite gravity data. Oceanographic surveys undertaken by a variety of academic and research institutions are another valuable source of data in remote regions offshore which supplement and extend the more detailed coverage obtained over the continental shelves, for example, by oil companies in areas of hydrocarbon interest. Surveys over land vary widely in terms of acquisition parameters and quality, but some form of national compilation is available from many countries. A number of possible applications of the potential field (i.e., gravity and magnetic) data follow from the terms set out by UNCLOS. Paragraph 4(b) of article 76 states, "In the absence of evidence to the contrary, the foot of the continental slope is to be determined as the point of maximum change in the gradient at its base" (italics added).

The Blake Field, Blocks 13/24a and 13/29b, UK North Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 651-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Saundry ◽  
J. Colmenares
Keyword(s):  
Depositional Environment ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Water Contact ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Geological Interpretation ◽  
Light Oil ◽  
Oil Water ◽  
4D Seismic ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractThe Blake Field is subdivided into two discrete parts, the ‘Channel’ and the ‘Flank’ areas. The two areas are geologically different but also reflect the different levels of maturity in terms of their development. Blake Channel was discovered in 1998, with first production commencing in 2001. Blake Flank was discovered in 1974 and developed in 2003.The field contains saturated light oil, with a field-wide oil–water contact and two significant gas caps. The reservoir comprises deep-water turbidite sands of Lower Cretaceous age.The combination of complex depositional environment and dynamic data resulted in the decision in 2016, to create a new model incorporating a fully integrated approach to subsurface evaluation and modelling. The latest work summarized in this paper incorporates a new geological interpretation along with the addition of aquifer extensions to capture depletion from offset fields, and a palaeo-oil leg, to help limit aquifer influx and improve history match. 4D seismic has also been incorporated to support the evaluation. Blake Channel and Flank have oil-in-place of 230 MMbbl and 300 MMbbl and have produced 94 MMbl and 15 MMbbl, respectively, to date.

scholarly journals Organisational plasticity: can we really model human–agent behaviours?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale Richards
Keyword(s):  
Sudden Change ◽  
Computational Modelling ◽  
Human Behaviour ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Human Agent ◽  
External Pressures ◽  
Behaviour Models

PurposeThe ability for an organisation to adapt and respond to external pressures is a beneficial activity towards optimising efficiency and increasing the likelihood of achieving set goals. It can also be suggested that this very ability to adapt to one's surroundings is one of the key factors of resilience. The nature of dynamically responding to sudden change and then to return to a state that is efficient may be termed as possessing the characteristic of plasticity. Uses of agent-based systems in assisting in organisational processes may have a hand in facilitating an organisations' plasticity, and computational modelling has often been used to try and predict both agent and human behaviour. Such models also promise the ability to examine the dynamics of organisational plasticity through the direct manipulation of key factors. This paper discusses the use of such models in application to organisational plasticity and in particular the relevance to human behaviour and perception of agent-based modelling. The uses of analogies for explaining organisational plasticity is also discussed, with particular discussion around the use of modelling. When the authors consider the means by which the authors can adopt theories to explain this type of behaviour, models tend to focus on aspects of predictability. This in turn loses a degree of realism when we consider the complex nature of human behaviour, and more so that of human–agent behaviour.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology and approach used for this paper is reflected in the review of the literature and research.FindingsThe use of human–agent behaviour models in organisational plasticity is discussed in this paper.Originality/valueThe originality of this paper is based on the importance of considering the human–agent-based models. When compared to agent-based model approaches, analogy is used as a narrative in this paper.

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