scholarly journals Global Risk and Elimination of Yellow Fever Epidemics

2019 ◽  
Vol 221 (12) ◽  
pp. 2026-2034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah ◽  
Abhishek Pandey

Abstract Background Yellow fever (YF) is a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic disease endemic in Africa and Latin America. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) developed the Eliminate YF Epidemics strategy aiming at eliminating YF epidemics by 2026. Methods We developed a spatiotemporal model of YF, accounting for the impact of temperature, vector distribution, and socioeconomic factors on disease transmission. We validated our model against previous estimates of YF basic reproductive number (R0). We used the model to estimate global risk of YF outbreaks and vaccination efforts needed to achieve elimination of YF epidemics. Results We showed that the global risk of YF outbreaks is highly heterogeneous. High-risk transmission areas (R0 > 6) are mainly found in West Africa and the Equatorial region of Latin America. We showed that vaccination coverage needed to eliminate YF epidemics in an endemic country varies substantially between districts. In many endemic countries, a 90% vaccination coverage is needed to achieve elimination. However, in some high-risk districts in Africa, a 95% coverage may be required. Conclusions Global elimination of YF epidemics requires higher population-level immunity than the 80% coverage recommended by the WHO. Optimal YF vaccination strategy should be tailored to the risk profile of each endemic country.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bassey Enya Bassey ◽  
Fiona Braka ◽  
Rosemary Onyibe ◽  
Olufunmilola Olawumi Kolude ◽  
Marcus Oluwadare ◽  
...  

Abstract Background:Yellow Fever is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease endemic in tropical Africa and Latin America and transmitted through infected mosquitoes. The renewed onset of yellow fever outbreaks in Nigeria followed a global trend of reports and from other African countries marking the emergence of yellow fever as a brand-new re-emerging global threat in 2016 with giant outbreaks of yellow fever reports in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Nigeria has been battling successive yellow fever resurgence since September 2017. Yellow Fever disease has no cure, but control is through vaccination and vector control. Eliminating Yellow fever Epidemic (EYE) strategy to improve high risk countries’ prevention, preparedness, detection, management and response to yellow fever outbreaks was developed by WHO in 2017 and launched in Nigeria in April 2018. Yet, poor vaccination coverage continues to be a cause for concern.Materials and Methods:We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study that examines the resurgence of Yellow fever cases and outbreaks from 2013-2020 in Oyo State, Nigeria. The Yellow Fever data for both surveillance and immunization were the focus of the review. Surveillance data were retrieved from the State’s database reported by all 33 LGAs, maintained by the State and supported by the World Health Organization at the Zonal and State levels. The immunization data were retrieved from District Health Information Software (DHIS_2). The proportion of LGAs reporting at least one case of suspected yellow fever with blood specimen, and the number of suspected cases reported for each year within the period under review was measured. We also assessed the trend of confirmed cases, and the incidence per 100,000 population. Also, suspected cases of yellow fever were categorized into four age groups and their vaccination status assessed. The State’s annual administrative vaccination coverage for yellow fever vaccine was compared with the number of confirmed cases for each year.Results:The proportion of LGAs reporting at least a case of suspected yellow fever, with blood sample collected, ranged from 6.1% to 84.9% between 2014 and 2020 while a total of 9 confirmed (8 cases) and probable (1 case) cases of yellow fever were recorded. However, there were no confirmed cases from the year 2013 to 2016, including 2018 but upward trend of incidence of the disease per 100,000 population from 0% in 2013 through 2018, to 3.5% in 2019 and then to 5.6% in 2020 was observed. 93 of 240 (39%) suspected yellow fever cases reported during the given period were observed to have received yellow fever vaccine Conclusion: In conclusion, the resurgence of yellow fever cases in the State reiterate the State being high risk for yellow fever transmission and underline the need for viable interventions such as environmental hygiene to rid the environment of the disease vector’s ecological niche and improving vaccination coverage to provide population immunity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brinkley Raynor ◽  
Elvis W. Díaz ◽  
Julianna Shinnick ◽  
Edith Zegarra ◽  
Ynes Monroy ◽  
...  

Over the past decades, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies in Latin America. Major components of rabies prevention programs in Latin America leading to these successes have been constant and intense surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. However, vital measures to control COVID-19 in Latin America have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. In this paper, we aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics parameterized for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, where there is an ongoing dog rabies epidemic. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance leading to an increased length of survival of infected dogs could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies and, subsequently, human rabies risk. We examined our results over the best estimate of the basic reproductive number in Arequipa (R0 = 1.44) and a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36 - 2). The rising trend was consistent. It is very possible that COVID-19 will continue to challenge our public health departments in the short- and medium-term. Innovative strategies to conduct dog vaccination and rabies surveillance during these trying times should be considered to safeguard the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. e001529
Author(s):  
Thijs T W van Herpt ◽  
Symen Ligthart ◽  
Maarten J G Leening ◽  
Mandy van Hoek ◽  
Aloysius G Lieverse ◽  
...  

IntroductionPre-diabetes, a status conferring high risk of overt diabetes, is defined differently by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the WHO. We investigated the impact of applying definitions of pre-diabetes on lifetime risk of diabetes in women and men from the general population.Research design and methodsWe used data from 8844 women without diabetes and men aged ≥45 years from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. In both gender groups, we calculated pre-diabetes prevalence according to ADA and WHO criteria and estimated the 10-year and lifetime risk to progress to overt diabetes with adjustment for competing risk of death.ResultsOut of 8844 individuals, pre-diabetes was identified in 3492 individuals (prevalence 40%, 95% CI 38% to 41%) according to ADA and 1382 individuals (prevalence 16%, 95% CI 15% to 16%) according to WHO criteria. In both women and men and each age category, ADA prevalence estimates doubled WHO-defined pre-diabetes. For women and men aged 45 years having ADA-defined pre-diabetes, the 10-year risk of diabetes was 14.2% (95% CI 6.0% to 22.5%) and 9.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 15.0%) compared with 23.2% (95% CI 6.8% to 39.6%) and 24.6% (95% CI 8.4% to 40.8%) in women and men with WHO-defined pre-diabetes. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk to progress to overt diabetes was 57.5% (95% CI 51.8% to 63.2%) vs 80.2% (95% CI 74.1% to 86.3%) in women and 46.1% (95% CI 40.8% to 51.4%) vs 68.4% (95% CI 58.3% to 78.5%) in men with pre-diabetes according to ADA and WHO definitions, respectively.ConclusionPrevalence of pre-diabetes differed considerably in both women and men when applying ADA and WHO pre-diabetes definitions. Women with pre-diabetes had higher lifetime risk to progress to diabetes. The lifetime risk of diabetes was lower in women and men with ADA-defined pre-diabetes as compared with WHO. Improvement of pre-diabetes definition considering appropriate sex-specific and age-specific glycemic thresholds may lead to better identification of individuals at high risk of diabetes.


Author(s):  
Mariângela Ottoboni Brunaldi ◽  
René Julias Costa Silva ◽  
Alexandre Todorovic Fabro ◽  
Daniel Cardoso de Almeida e Araujo ◽  
Anibal Basile-Filho ◽  
...  

Yellow fever is a viral hemorrhagic disease, and vaccination is the most effective way to minimize the impact of the disease. Serious adverse events after yellow fever vaccination are rare. We report the case of a young woman with an unusual presentation of yellow fever 17DD vaccine-associated acute viscerotropic disease, with severe hepatic impairment following a long incubation period. She died more than a month after yellow fever vaccination.


2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Battista Migliori ◽  
Rosella Centis ◽  
Lia D’Ambrosio ◽  
Denise Rossato Silva ◽  
Adrian Rendon

ABSTRACT Objective: Most studies of tuberculosis originate from high-income countries with a low incidence of tuberculosis. A review of the scientific production on tuberculosis in Latin American countries, most of which are low- or middle-income countries (some with high or intermediate tuberculosis incidence rates), would improve the understanding of public health challenges, clinical needs, and research priorities. The aims of this systematic review were to determine what has been published recently in Latin America, to identify the leading authors involved, and to quantify the impact of international collaborations. Methods: We used PubMed to identify relevant manuscripts on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), published between 2013 and 2018. We selected only studies conducted in countries with an annual tuberculosis incidence of ≥ 10,000 reported cases and an annual MDR-TB incidence of ≥ 300 estimated cases, including Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina. Articles were stratified by country, type, and topic. Results: We identified as eligible 395 studies on PTB and 188 studies on DR/MDR-TB-of which 96.4% and 96.8%, respectively, were original studies; 35.5% and 32.4%, respectively, had an epidemiological focus; and 52.7% and 36.2%, respectively, were conducted in Brazil. The recent Latin American Thoracic Association/European Respiratory Society/Brazilian Thoracic Association collaborative project boosted the production of high-quality articles on PTB and DR/MDR-TB in Latin America. Conclusions: Most of the recent Latin American studies on tuberculosis were conducted in Brazil, Mexico, or Peru. Collaboration among medical societies facilitates the production of scientific papers on tuberculosis. Such initiatives are in support of the World Health Organization call for intensified research and innovation in tuberculosis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anjali Modi ◽  
Keshav G. Vaishnav ◽  
Kailash Kothiya ◽  
Neal Alexander

Abstract Background To secure the gains of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination programs, attention is needed to the ‘residual microfilaremia phase’, in which high-risk populations may be crucial. The present study documents the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) in the urban Indian setting of Surat City, with high rates of in-migration. Methods Epidemiological assessment included National Filaria Control Program (NFCP) and World Health Organization recommended routine and pre-MDA microfilaremia surveys respectively. Routine filaria surveys were conducted around the year in approximately 2000–4000 people per month, while pre-MDA surveys were carried out annually among approximately 4000 people from four fixed and four random sites. In 2016, Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) was done in primary school children. The outcomes were microfilaremia (Mf) and antigen prevalence; more specifically, microfilaremia according to place of birth, in pre-MDA and routine night blood smears (NBS) collected from 2008 to 2015. Prevalence ratios and confidence intervals were calculated. Results A total of 25 480 pre-MDA and 306 198 routine NBS were examined during the study. In 2008, the Mf prevalence in the routine survey was 63/18 814 (0.33%), declining to 23/39 717 (0.06%) in 2016. Pre-MDA surveys showed a similar decrease from 47/4184 (1.1%) in 2008 to 12/4042 (0.3%) in 2015. In those born outside Surat, microfilaremia decreased below transmission thresholds, but remained more than treble that of the remainder of the population, in both the pre-MDA surveys [prevalence ratio: 3.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15–8.72], and the routine surveys (3.31, 95% CI: 1.47–7.48). Though the TAS results indicated that MDA endpoints had been reached, sub-group analysis identified that 90% of antigenemic children were from families of high-risk groups. Conclusions Extensive long-term epidemiological monitoring suggests that all the urban population, including high-risk groups, have benefitted from the ELF program. To prevent re-establishment of infection in large urban areas with unsanitary conditions conducive to filarial vector breeding, there is need to identify residual microfilaremia by customized surveys in addition to pre-MDA monitoring and TAS. The present findings can be used to develop strategies to prioritize screening, surveillance and plan treatment of high-risk groups after achieving MDA endpoints.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rapeepong Suphanchaimat ◽  
Natthaprang Nittayasoot ◽  
Panithee Thammawijaya ◽  
Pard Teekasap ◽  
Kamnuan Ungchusak

Abstract Background: Thailand experienced the first wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) during March-May 2020 and was now facing the second wave of COVID-19 since December 2020. For the second wave, the intensity was more pronounced. The area faced the greatest hit was Samut Sakhon, a main migrant-receiving province in the country. Thus, the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) was now considering the initiation of vaccination strategies in combination with active face finding (ACF) in the epidemic area. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of various vaccination and ACF policy scenarios in terms of case reduction and deaths averted.Methods: The study obtained data mainly from the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control (DDC), MOPH. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were exercised. Basic reproductive number (R0) was estimated at 3 from the beginning. Vaccine efficacy against disease transmission was assumed to be 50%. A total of 10,000 people were estimated as an initial population size.Results: The findings showed that the greater the vaccination coverage was, the smaller the size of incident and cumulative cases. Compared with no-vaccination and no-ACF scenario, the 90%-vaccination coverage combined with 90%-ACF coverage contributed a reduction of cumulative cases by 33%. The case reduction benefit would be greater when R0 was smaller (⁓53% and ⁓51% when R0 equated 2 and 1.5 respectively).Conclusion: This study reaffirmed the idea that a combination of vaccination and ACF measures contributed to favourable results in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, relative to the implementation of only a single measure. The greater the vaccination and ACF coverage was, the greater the volume of cases could be saved. Though we demonstrated the benefit of vaccination strategies in this setting, the actual implementation needs to consider many more policy angles, such as social acceptability, cost-effectiveness and operational feasibility. Further studies that address these topics based on empirical evidence are of great value.


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 37-37
Author(s):  
Franco Castillo Tokumori ◽  
Chetasi Talati ◽  
Najla E. Al Ali ◽  
David A. Sallman ◽  
Seongseok Yun ◽  
...  

CONTEXT: Splicing factor mutations (SRSF2, U2AF1, SF3B1, and ZRSR2) are present in ~50% of myelofibrosis (MF) patients. SRSF2 and U2AF1 Q157 are considered to be high-risk mutations, while the prognostic significance of ZRSR2 and SF3B1 has not been well established. As a group, splicing mutations are associated with cytopenias, the management of which is an area of unmet clinical need in MF. OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical characteristics, treatment approaches, and outcomes in MF patients with splicing mutations. DESIGN: This is a single-institution, retrospective analysis of 133 MF patients with splicing mutations who presented to our institution between 2006 and 2019. PMF, post-ET MF, and post-PV MF were defined according to the World Health Organization and International Working Group criteria, respectively. Baseline variables were compared between patients harboring different splicing factor mutations and different mutations within the same splicing gene. Median overall survival (OS) was measured from time of diagnosis to date of death or censored at last follow up or date of transplant. Kaplan-Meier plots were created to compare LFS and OS among treatment cohorts, and differences were assessed using Log-rank tests. RESULTS: Among 133 MF patients with a splicing mutation, SRSF2 mutations were most common (n = 48), followed by U2AF1 (n = 36), SF3B1 (n = 27) and ZRSR2 mutations (n = 24). Most SRSF2 mutations occurred at P95 (90%). Thirty (83%) U2AF1 mutations occurred at Q157, with 5 (14%) at S34. Fourteen (63%) SF3B1 mutations occurred K666, with 9 (33%) at K700. Thirteen (54%) ZRSR2 mutations were in-frame insertions/deletions, 4 (17%) frameshift mutations, 3 (13%) nonsense mutations and 4 (17%) missense. All frameshift/nonsense ZRSR2 mutations occurred in males. Spliceosome mutations were mutually exclusive but for 2 cases (one had U2AF1 and SRSF2 mutations and the other had SF3B1 and ZRSR2 mutations). Baseline characteristics were similar between splicing mutations. The presence of a U2AF1 mutation correlated with lower hemoglobin (p 0.018) and U2AF1 Q157 mutations were associated with thrombocytopenia p=0.051) and higher DIPSS-plus scores (p=0.006). Severe thrombocytopenia (platelets < 50 x 109/L) was present in 20 (17%) patients and enriched in those with U2AF1 mutations (n = 9). ASXL1 mutations rarely occurred in conjunction with SF3B1 mutations (p = 0.007). Among all patients with splicing mutations, median OS was 60.6 months. Median OS was decreased in patients with SRSF2 mutations (33 vs 106 months, p=0.001) compared to those with other splicing mutations. Median OS was increased in patients with SF3B1 mutations compared to patients with other splicing mutations (181 mo vs 42 mo, p = 0.002). Median OS for patients with U2AF1 and ZRSR2 mutations was 44 and 106 months, respectively. Among patients with U2AF1 mutations, the presence of severe thrombocytopenia was associated with inferior survival (13.9 mo vs not reached, p = 0.045). The presence of an SRSF2 mutation was associated with an increased risk of leukemic transformation (24% vs 3%, p = 0.002). Among patients with SRSF2 mutations, median OS in those with documented leukemic transformation was 32.9 mo compared to 48.7 mo in those without (p = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Splicing mutations in MF have unique phenotypic and prognostic correlations. While SRSF2 mutations appear detrimental, SF3B1 mutations correlate with favorable outcomes. While U2AF1 and SRSF2 mutations are considered high-risk in MF, the impact appears driven by cytopenias in the former and leukemic transformation in the latter. This may hold relevance when considering therapeutic approaches in these patients. Disclosures Talati: AbbVie: Honoraria; Jazz: Speakers Bureau; Astellas: Speakers Bureau; BMS: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria. Sallman:Celgene, Jazz Pharma: Research Funding; Agios, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celyad Oncology, Incyte, Intellia Therapeutics, Kite Pharma, Novartis, Syndax: Consultancy. Sweet:Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BMS: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Incyte: Research Funding; Stemline: Honoraria; Agios: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Astellas: Honoraria. Padron:Incyte: Research Funding; Kura: Research Funding; BMS: Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria. Lancet:Abbvie: Consultancy; Agios Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Honoraria; Astellas Pharma: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Daiichi Sankyo: Consultancy; ElevateBio Management: Consultancy; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy. Komrokji:Geron: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; Acceleron: Honoraria; Incyte: Honoraria; Abbvie: Honoraria; Agios: Speakers Bureau; BMS: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Jazz: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau. Kuykendall:Blueprint Medicines: Research Funding; BMS: Research Funding; Incyte: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0009946
Author(s):  
Klodeta Kura ◽  
Robert J. Hardwick ◽  
James E. Truscott ◽  
Roy M. Anderson

Schistosomiasis causes severe morbidity in many countries with endemic infection with the schistosome digenean parasites in Africa and Asia. To control and eliminate the disease resulting from infection, regular mass drug administration (MDA) is used, with a focus on school-aged children (SAC; 5–14 years of age). In some high transmission settings, the World Health Organization (WHO) also recommends the inclusion of at-risk adults in MDA treatment programmes. The question of whether ecology (age-dependant exposure) or immunity (resistance to reinfection), or some combination of both, determines the form of observed convex age-intensity profile is still unresolved, but there is a growing body of evidence that the human hosts acquire some partial level of immunity after a long period of repeated exposure to infection. In the majority of past research modelling schistosome transmission and the impact of MDA programmes, the effect of acquired immunity has not been taken into account. Past work has been based on the assumption that age-related contact rates generate convex horizontal age-intensity profiles. In this paper, we use an individual based stochastic model of transmission and MDA impact to explore the effect of acquired immunity in defined MDA programmes. Compared with scenarios with no immunity, we find that acquired immunity makes the MDA programme less effective with a slower decrease in the prevalence of infection. Therefore, the time to achieve morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem is longer than predicted by models with just age-related exposure and no build-up of immunity. The level of impact depends on the baseline prevalence prior to treatment (the magnitude of the basic reproductive number R0) and the treatment frequency, among other factors. We find that immunity has a larger impact within moderate to high transmission settings such that it is very unlikely to achieve morbidity and transmission control employing current MDA programmes.


1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 2906-2912 ◽  
Author(s):  
H S Koops ◽  
M Vaglini ◽  
S Suciu ◽  
B B Kroon ◽  
J F Thompson ◽  
...  

PURPOSE Patients with primary cutaneous melanoma > or = 1.5 mm in thickness are at high risk of having regional micrometastases at the time of initial surgical treatment. A phase III international study was designed to evaluate whether prophylactic isolated limb perfusion (ILP) could prevent regional recurrence and influence survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS A total of 832 assessable patients from 16 centers entered the study; 412 were randomized to wide excision (WE) only and 420 to WE plus ILP with melphalan and mild hyperthermia. Median age was 50 years, 68% of patients were female, 79% of melanomas were located on a lower limb, and 47% had a thickness > or = 3 mm. RESULTS Median follow-up duration is 6.4 years. There was a trend for a longer disease-free interval (DFI) after ILP. The difference was significant for patients who did not undergo elective lymph node dissection (ELND). The impact of ILP was clearly on the occurrence-as first site of progression - of in-transit metastases (ITM), which were reduced from 6.6% to 3.3%, and of regional lymph node (RLN) metastases, with a reduction from 16.7% to 12.6%. There was no benefit from ILP in terms of time to distant metastasis or survival. Side effects were higher after ILP, but transient in most patients. There were two amputations for limb toxicity after ILP. CONCLUSION Prophylactic ILP with melphalan cannot be recommended as an adjunct to standard surgery in high-risk primary limb melanoma.


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