scholarly journals Risk prediction and segmentation models used in the United States for assessing risk in whole populations: a critical literature review with implications for nurses’ role in population health management

JAMIA Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvin D Jeffery ◽  
Sharon Hewner ◽  
Lisiane Pruinelli ◽  
Deborah Lekan ◽  
Mikyoung Lee ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective We sought to assess the current state of risk prediction and segmentation models (RPSM) that focus on whole populations. Materials Academic literature databases (ie MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, PROSPERO, and CINAHL), environmental scan, and Google search engine. Methods We conducted a critical review of the literature focused on RPSMs predicting hospitalizations, emergency department visits, or health care costs. Results We identified 35 distinct RPSMs among 37 different journal articles (n = 31), websites (n = 4), and abstracts (n = 2). Most RPSMs (57%) defined their population as health plan enrollees while fewer RPSMs (26%) included an age-defined population (26%) and/or geographic boundary (26%). Most RPSMs (51%) focused on predicting hospital admissions, followed by costs (43%) and emergency department visits (31%), with some models predicting more than one outcome. The most common predictors were age, gender, and diagnostic codes included in 82%, 77%, and 69% of models, respectively. Discussion Our critical review of existing RPSMs has identified a lack of comprehensive models that integrate data from multiple sources for application to whole populations. Highly depending on diagnostic codes to define high-risk populations overlooks the functional, social, and behavioral factors that are of great significance to health. Conclusion More emphasis on including nonbilling data and providing holistic perspectives of individuals is needed in RPSMs. Nursing-generated data could be beneficial in addressing this gap, as they are structured, frequently generated, and tend to focus on key health status elements like functional status and social/behavioral determinants of health.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J Wiegand ◽  
Manish M Patel ◽  
Kent R. Olson

Drug overdose and poisoning are leading causes of emergency department visits and hospital admissions in the United States, accounting for more than 500,000 emergency department visits and 11,000 deaths each year. This chapter discusses the approach to the patient with poisoning or drug overdose, beginning with the initial stabilization period in which the physician proceeds through the ABCDs (airway, breathing, circulation, dextrose, decontamination) of stabilization. The management of some of the more common complications of poisoning and drug overdose are summarized and include coma, hypotension and cardiac dysrhythmias, hypertension, seizures, hyperthermia, hypothermia, and rhabdomyolysis. The physician should also perform a careful diagnostic evaluation that includes a directed history, physical examination, and the appropriate laboratory tests. The next step is to prevent further absorption of the drug or poison by decontaminating the skin or gastrointestinal tract and, possibly, by administering antidotes and performing other measures that enhance elimination of the drug from the body. The diagnosis and treatment of overdoses of a number of specific drugs and poisons that a physician may encounter, as well as food poisoning and smoke inhalation, are discussed. Tables present the ABCDs of initial stabilization of the poisoned patient; mechanisms of drug-induced hypotension; causes of cardiac disturbances; drug-induced seizures; drug-induced hyperthermia; autonomic syndromes induced by drugs or poison; the use of the clinical laboratory in the initial diagnosis of poisoning; methods of gastrointestinal decontamination; methods of and indications for enhanced drug removal; toxicity of common beta blockers; common stimulant drugs; corrosive agents; dosing of digoxin-specific antibodies; poisoning with ethylene glycol or methanol; manifestations of excessive acetylcholine activity; common tricyclic and other antidepressants; seafood poisonings; drugs or classes that require activated charcoal treatment; and special circumstances for use of activated charcoal. This review contains 3 figures, 22 tables, and 198 references.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Luo ◽  
Michael D Johnson ◽  
Flory L Nkoy ◽  
Shan He ◽  
Bryan L Stone

BACKGROUND Bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in children under 2 years of age. Each year in the United States, bronchiolitis results in 287,000 emergency department visits, 32%-40% of which end in hospitalization. Frequently, emergency department disposition decisions (to discharge or hospitalize) are made subjectively because of the lack of evidence and objective criteria for bronchiolitis management, leading to significant practice variation, wasted health care use, and suboptimal outcomes. At present, no operational definition of appropriate hospital admission for emergency department patients with bronchiolitis exists. Yet, such a definition is essential for assessing care quality and building a predictive model to guide and standardize disposition decisions. Our prior work provided a framework of such a definition using 2 concepts, one on safe versus unsafe discharge and another on necessary versus unnecessary hospitalization. OBJECTIVE The goal of this study was to determine the 2 threshold values used in the 2 concepts, with 1 value per concept. METHODS Using Intermountain Healthcare data from 2005-2014, we examined distributions of several relevant attributes of emergency department visits by children under 2 years of age for bronchiolitis. Via a data-driven approach, we determined the 2 threshold values. RESULTS We completed the first operational definition of appropriate hospital admission for emergency department patients with bronchiolitis. Appropriate hospital admissions include actual admissions with exposure to major medical interventions for more than 6 hours, as well as actual emergency department discharges, followed by an emergency department return within 12 hours ending in admission for bronchiolitis. Based on the definition, 0.96% (221/23,125) of the emergency department discharges were deemed unsafe. Moreover, 14.36% (432/3008) of the hospital admissions from the emergency department were deemed unnecessary. CONCLUSIONS Our operational definition can define the prediction target for building a predictive model to guide and improve emergency department disposition decisions for bronchiolitis in the future.


Author(s):  
Abdullah Aldamigh ◽  
Afaf Alnefisah ◽  
Abdulrahman Almutairi ◽  
Fatima Alturki ◽  
Suhailah Alhtlany ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 232596712097540
Author(s):  
Jessica M. Zendler ◽  
Ron Jadischke ◽  
Jared Frantz ◽  
Steve Hall ◽  
Grant C. Goulet

Background: Non-tackle football (ie, flag, touch, 7v7) is purported to be a lower-risk alternative to tackle football, particularly in terms of head injuries. However, data on head injuries in non-tackle football are sparse, particularly among youth participants. Purpose: To describe the epidemiology of  emergency department visits for head injuries due to non-tackle football among youth players in the United States and compare the data with basketball, soccer, and tackle football. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: Injury data from 2014 to 2018 were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System database. Injury reports coded for patients aged 6 to 18 years and associated with basketball, football, or soccer were extracted. Data were filtered to include only injuries to the head region, specifically, the head, ear, eyeball, mouth, or face. Football injuries were manually assigned to “non-tackle” or “tackle” based on the injury narratives. Sports & Fitness Industry Association data were used to estimate annual sport participation and calculate annual injury rates per 100,000 participant-years. Results: A total of 26,770 incident reports from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed. For head region injuries in non-tackle football, the head was the most commonly injured body part, followed by the face; the most common diagnosis was a laceration, followed by concussion and internal injury (defined as an unspecified head injury or internal head injury [eg, subdural hematoma or cerebral contusion]). The most common contacting object was another player. The projected national rate of head region injuries was lowest for non-tackle football across the 4 sports. In particular, the projected rate of injuries to the head for non-tackle football (78.0 per 100,000 participant-years) was less than one-fourth the rates for basketball (323.5 per 100,000 participant-years) and soccer (318.2 per 100,000 participant-years) and less than one-tenth the rate for tackle football (1478.6 per 100,000 participant-years). Conclusion: Among youth in the United States aged 6 to 18 years who were treated in the emergency department for injuries related to playing non-tackle football, the most common diagnosis for injuries to the head region was a laceration, followed by a concussion. Head region injuries associated with non-tackle football occurred at a notably lower rate than basketball, soccer, or tackle football.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary A. Puckrein ◽  
Brent M. Egan

<p class="Pa7">Cardiometabolic diseases, including diabetes and heart disease, account for &gt;12 million years of life lost annually among Black adults in the United States. Health disparities are geographically localized, with ~80% of health disparities occurring within ~6000 (16%) of all 38,000 US ZIP codes. Socio-economic status (SES), behavioral and environmental fac­tors (social determinants) account for ~80% of variance in health outcomes and cluster geographically. Neighborhood SES is inversely associated with prevalent diabetes and hyper­tension, and Blacks are four times more likely than Whites to live in lowest SES neighbor­hoods. In ZIP code 48235 (Detroit, 97% Black, 16.2% unemployed, income/capita $18,343, 23.6% poverty), 1082 Medicare fee-for service (FFS) beneficiaries received care for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary artery disease (CAD) in 2012. Collectively, these beneficiaries had 1082 inpatient admissions and 839 emergency department visits, mean cost $27,759/beneficiary and mortality 2.7%. Nationally in 2011, 236,222 Black Medicare FFS beneficiaries had 213,715 inpatient admissions, 191,346 emergency department visits, mean cost $25,580/beneficiary and 2.4% mortality. In addition to more prevalent hypertension and T2D, Blacks appear more susceptible to clinical complications of risk fac­tors than Whites, including hypertension as a contributor to stroke. Cardiometabolic health equity in African Americans requires interven­tions on social determinants to reduce excess risk prevalence of risk factors. Social-medical interventions to promote timely access to, delivery of and adherence with evidence-based medicine are needed to counterbal­ance greater disease susceptibility. Place-based interventions on social and medical determi­nants of health could reduce the burden of life lost to cardiometabolic diseases in Blacks. <em>Ethn Dis. </em>2015;25(4):521-524; doi:10.18865/ ed.25.4.521</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cihad Dundar ◽  
Seydanur Dal Yaylaoglu

Abstract Background: The use of EDs has significantly increased, and a majority of this increase is attributed to non-urgent visits, which has negative impacts. We aim to explore the frequency of non-urgent emergency department (ED) visits and to identify risk factors for non-urgent ED visits. Methods: This retrospective, the record-based study was conducted at a tertiary hospital in Samsun province of Turkey. The records of all adult patients who visited to the ED between January 1 and December 31, 2017, were included in this study. All emergency department visits were evaluated according to age, gender, time of visit, means of arrival, ICD diagnostic codes, and the number of repeated non-urgent ED visits. The number of ED visits was 87,528 for the year 2017. Results: The non-urgent emergency visit rate was 9.9%. According to binary logistic analysis, non-urgent visits were associated with young age (OR = 2.75), female gender (OR = 1.11) and non-ambulance transportation (OR = 9.86). The prevalence of non-emergent visits was very similar between weekends and weekdays but was significantly higher in work hours on weekdays than non-work hours (p<0.001). The most frequent diagnostic code was “Pain, unspecified” (R52) and the rate of repeated visits was 14.8% of non-urgent ED visits. Conclusions: Harmonization of various databases at the primary level in terms of design and connectivity and integration with hospital information systems will contribute to the identification of problems and the generation of solutions. The next step is establishing an integrated health care system that can benefit emergency care organizations in Turkey.


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