The Leadership Long Cycle Framework
In this chapter, we lay out the leadership long cycle theory as our framework for assessing systemic leadership and then modify it. This revised framework is then applied to the political–economic evolution of the past one thousand years to identify the factors underlying the rise and fall of a sequence of system leaders and to examine the fairly strong evidence for the linkage of energy transitions and technological leadership. We find that it is difficult to imagine the ascent of the last three system leaders (the Netherlands, Britain, and the United States) in a situation with significantly different energy foundations. In other words, had there been no peat, coal, or petroleum/electricity, respectively, these episodes of systemic leadership would have been far less likely to have occurred.