Cui Bono

Author(s):  
Amy E. Eckert

The emergence of a new market for private force has altered many aspects of war fighting, including those pertaining to victory and post-conflict settings. While some literature suggests that private military companies (PMCs) can sometimes lead parties to negotiate a peace agreement more quickly, the value of this victory is open to debate. Empirical evidence and case studies of civil wars explored in this chapter suggest that the peace achieved through the use of PMCs is unlikely to endure or to bring substantial improvement to the lives of the most vulnerable victims of war—that is, instead of a positive peace, PMCs achieve a negative peace. Moreover, states often mortgage their natural resources to PMCs as a form of payment. In other words, both the war and the victory secure considerable benefits for PMCs and accomplish little for the civilian populations within war-torn states.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Avis

Governments and political parties with an armed history are not unusual, yet how these groups function during and after the transition from conflict has largely been ignored by the existing literature. Many former armed groups have assumed power in a variety of contexts. Whilst this process is often associated with brokered peace agreements that encourage former combatants to transform into political parties, mobilise voters, and ultimately stand for elections, this is not always the case. What is less clearly understood is how war termination by insurgent victory shapes patterns of post-war politics. This rapid literature review collates available evidence of transitions made by armed groups to government. The literature collated presents a mixed picture, with transitions mediated by an array of contextual factors that are location and group specific. Case studies are drawn from a range of contexts where armed groups have assumed some influence over government (these include those via negotiated settlement, victory and in contexts of ongoing protracted conflict). The review provides a series of readings and case studies that are of use in understanding how armed groups may transition in “post-conflict” settings.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-148
Author(s):  
Hirotaka Ohmura

How do natural resources influence the duration of civil wars? Previous studies argue that resource wealth increases rebels’ motivation for private gain (motivation mechanism) and provides rebel leaders with sufficient funding opportunities to continue their insurrectionary activities (feasibility mechanism), thereby increasing the likelihood of prolonged conflict. While these two mechanisms are very important arguments for explaining the role of natural resources in the continuation of civil wars, there are not enough existing studies that analyze these two mechanisms separately. To examine the two mechanisms, this article introduces three important factors to the analysis: the lootability of natural resources, types of conflict termination, and power balance between government and rebels. Empirically, this article examines the effect of natural resources on conflict duration for the period of 1946–2003, using a competing risk modeling approach. Findings from the quantitative analysis reveal that lootable resources (onshore oil production) are negatively related to the duration of a civil war that ends in rebel victory and positively related to the duration of a civil war that ends in peace agreement when rebels have enough military capability. On the other hand, empirical analysis shows that non-lootable resources (offshore oil production) tend to reduce the duration of a civil war that ends in government victory.


Author(s):  
Siobhan Keenan

The Progresses, Processions, and Royal Entries of King Charles I, 1625–1642 is the first book-length study of the history, and the political and cultural significance, of the progresses, public processions, and royal entries of Charles I. As well as offering a much fuller account of the king’s progresses and progress entertainments than currently exists, this study throws new light on one of the most vexed topics in early Stuart historiography—the question of Charles I’s accessibility to his subjects and their concerns, and the part that this may, or may not, have played in the conflicts which culminated in the English civil wars and Charles’s overthrow. Drawing on extensive archival research, the book opens with an introduction to the early modern culture of royal progresses and public ceremonial as inherited and practised by Charles I. Part I explores the question of the king’s accessibility and engagement with his subjects further through case studies of Charles’s ‘great’ progresses in 1633, 1634, and 1636. Part II turns attention to royal public ceremonial culture in Caroline London, focusing on Charles’s royal entry on 25 November 1641. More widely travelled than his ancestors, Progresses reveals a monarch who was only too well aware of the value of public ceremonial and who did not eschew it, even if he was not always willing to engage in ceremonial dialogue with his people or able to deploy the power of public display to curry support for his policies as successfully as his Tudor and Stuart predecessors.


Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Clarissa Augustinus ◽  
Ombretta Tempra

According to the United Nations (UN) Refugee Agency, there were 79.5 million forcibly displaced people worldwide by the end of 2019. Evictions from homes and land are often linked to protracted violent conflict. Land administration (LA) can be a small part of UN peace-building programs addressing these conflicts. Through the lens of the UN and seven country cases, the problem being addressed is: what are the key features of fit-for-purpose land administration (FFP LA) in violent conflict contexts? FFP LA involves the same LA elements found in conventional LA and FFP LA, and LA in post conflict contexts, as it supports peace building and conflict resolution. However, in the contexts being examined, FFP LA also has novel features as well, such as extra-legal transitional justice mechanisms to protect people and their land rights and to address historical injustices and the politics of exclusion that are the root causes of conflict. In addition, there are land governance and power relations’ implications, as FFP LA is part of larger UN peace-building programs. This impacts the FFP LA design. The cases discussed are from Darfur/Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Honduras, Iraq, Jubaland/Somalia, Peru and South Sudan.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. e0233757
Author(s):  
Lama Bou-Karroum ◽  
Amena El-Harakeh ◽  
Inas Kassamany ◽  
Hussein Ismail ◽  
Nour El Arnaout ◽  
...  

1996 ◽  
Vol 83 (3) ◽  
pp. 776-778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore P. Hill

New empirical evidence and statistical derivations of Benford's Law have led to successful goodness-of-fit tests to detect fraud in accounting data. Several recent case studies support the hypothesis that fabricated data do not conform to expected true digital frequencies.


2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 1021-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Keels

New research has emerged that suggests there is a troubling relationship between elections and civil wars; primarily, elections increase the risk of civil war recurrence. I investigate this relationship further by examining the economic factors associated with the connection between postwar elections and peace failure. Specifically, how does the presence of oil wealth impact the risk posed by postwar elections. Drawing on previous findings in the democratization literature, I suggest the immobility of oil wealth dramatically increases the stakes associated with postwar elections. As postwar elites use irregular electioneering to consolidate their control of oil revenue, it increases the incentives for postwar opposition to use violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Using post-civil war data from 1945 to 2005, I demonstrate that postwar elections that occur in oil-rich economies dramatically decrease the durability of postwar peace. Once controlling for petro elections, though, I demonstrate that subsequent postwar elections actually increase the durability of postwar peace.


2014 ◽  
Vol 108 (4) ◽  
pp. 737-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
LISA HULTMAN ◽  
JACOB KATHMAN ◽  
MEGAN SHANNON

While United Nations peacekeeping missions were created to keep peace and perform post-conflict activities, since the end of the Cold War peacekeepers are more often deployed to active conflicts. Yet, we know little about their ability to manage ongoing violence. This article provides the first broad empirical examination of UN peacekeeping effectiveness in reducing battlefield violence in civil wars. We analyze how the number of UN peacekeeping personnel deployed influences the amount of battlefield deaths in all civil wars in Africa from 1992 to 2011. The analyses show that increasing numbers of armed military troops are associated with reduced battlefield deaths, while police and observers are not. Considering that the UN is often criticized for ineffectiveness, these results have important implications: if appropriately composed, UN peacekeeping missions reduce violent conflict.


The Lancet ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 397 (10273) ◽  
pp. 533-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neha S Singh ◽  
Anushka Ataullahjan ◽  
Khadidiatou Ndiaye ◽  
Jai K Das ◽  
Paul H Wise ◽  
...  

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