Force-Based Confidence at Work
Chapter 12 puts the force-based view to systematic explanatory work. The so-called ‘dilation’ of probability sets is explained from scratch and placed within a larger theoretical setting. Systematic and puzzling patterns of intuition about the acceptability of the representor-based model’s consequences are unearthed. It is shown that the force-based view of confidence explains the intuitions, as well as those surrounding a new type of counter-example to the representor approach. The full story exposes deep links between the force-based metaphysics of confidence and three big issues: the forward-looking nature of transition theory, the manner in which confidence should match the character of one’s evidence, and the situations in which confidence is subject to content-based accuracy. It is shown that each of these topics can be handled gracefully by the force-based view.