The Efficiency of Pelota Betting Markets

2013 ◽  
pp. 171-193
Author(s):  
Loreto Llorente ◽  
Josemari Aizpurua ◽  
Javier Puértolas
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets

In pelota matches, which are games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, wagers on the winner are made between viewers through a middleman who receives 16 percent of the payout. This chapter presents an analysis of this betting market under three different concepts of market efficiency widely utilized in the literature. Attention is then turned to another concept of market efficiency with the preliminary analysis of a set of field data. Finally, some insights are provided for future research on hedging strategies in these markets.

Correlated Parlay Betting: An Analysis of Betting Market Profitability Scenarios in College Football

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
Justin Davis ◽  
Jarrod Dawson ◽  
Kevin Krieger
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
College Football ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Betting Market

In this paper we consider the case of potential “correlated parlays” in American college football wagering.  The structure of college football games is such that games in which favorites prevail in “against-the-spread” (spread) bets are expected to be more likely to go over the posted “total” of the game. Using a longitudinal data set over the years from 2005-2015, our findings confirm this to be the case. However, to prevent bettors from utilizing this trend to profit in their wagers, many sportsbooks disallow some, or all, same-game parlay bets.  Consequently, we find that sportsbooks have generally been too conservative in refusing such bets and have thus foregone profitability in the vast majority of betting situations.  This analysis opens a new line of discussion in the area of sports market efficiency research – that of correlated parlay betting.  We consider this case and present potential directions for future research. 

Market efficiency and the Greek fixed-odds betting market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Kalaitzakis ◽  
Petros Lois ◽  
Spyros Repousis
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Online Betting ◽  
The One ◽  
Linear Probability ◽  
Opening And Closing ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically examine the efficiency of Greek fixed-odds (offline) betting market as offered by OPAP for the period 2016–2019.Design/methodology/approachUsing a four-year data sample of OPAP's opening and closing odds for football matches from all over the world and applying linear probability and probit models, the market efficiency is examined and the existence of possible anomalies is investigated.FindingsThe main findings of research suggest that although the odds are dominated primarily by favorite-longshot bias and secondarily by draw bias, this mispricing cannot prove profitable. However, the opening odds, the margin levels and the market structure provide information that is not fully captured by the closing odds, giving bettors profit opportunities. Thus, findings show that the semi-strong market efficiency is questionable. Finally, competition reduces commissions leading to more efficient odds.Practical implicationsThe conclusions of this study are useful for football betting market and, particularly, for government authorities, bookmakers and bettors. Findings can be extended in future research to prediction tasks.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study about the Greek football betting market. The contribution to the literature lies on the one hand in the examination of a monopolistic land-based betting market, which is being squeezed and threatened by the more competitive online betting market, and on the other hand in the simultaneous examination of the opening and closing odds.

scholarly journals Estimating Risk Preferences in the Field

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 501-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Levon Barseghyan ◽  
Francesca Molinari ◽  
Ted O’Donoghue ◽  
Joshua C. Teitelbaum
Keyword(s):  
Field Data ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Property Insurance ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Core ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Separate Treatment ◽  
Insurance Data

We survey the literature on estimating risk preferences using field data. We concentrate our attention on studies in which risk preferences are the focal object and estimating their structure is the core enterprise. We review a number of models of risk preferences—including both expected utility (EU) theory and non-EU models—that have been estimated using field data, and we highlight issues related to identification and estimation of such models using field data. We then survey the literature, giving separate treatment to research that uses individual-level data (e.g., property-insurance data) and research that uses aggregate data (e.g., betting-market data). We conclude by discussing directions for future research. ( JEL C51, D11, D81, D82, D83, G22, I13)

Introduction and Preliminary Investigation of Buoyancy Assisted Robots That Are Cheap, Safe, and Will Never Fall Down

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew David Williams ◽  
Dennis Hong
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Legged Robots ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Drag Forces ◽  
New Family

Abstract We introduce and define a new family of mobile robots called BAR (Buoyancy Assisted Robots) that are cheap, safe, and will never fall down. BARs utilize buoyancy from lighter-than-air gases as a way to support the weight of the robot for locomotion. A new BAR robot named BLAIR (Buoyant Legged Actuated Inverted Robot) whose buoyancy is greater than its weight is also presented in this paper. BLAIRs can walk “upside-down” on the ceiling, providing unique advantages that no other robot platforms can. Unlike other legged robots, the mechanics of how BARs walk is fundamentally different. We also perform a preliminary investigation for BARs. This includes comparing safety, cost, and energy consumption with other commercially available robots. Additionally, the preliminary investigation also includes analyzing previous works relating to BARs. A dynamical analysis is performed on the novel robot BLAIR. This is presented to show the impacts of buoyant and drag forces on BLAIRs. Preliminary analysis with the prevalence of drag is presented with simulations using a genetic algorithm and simulations. Results show that BARs with different mechanisms prefer different styles of walking gaits such as prancing or skipping. This work lays the foundation for future research work on the gaits for BARs.

scholarly journals Sentiment Analysis of Suicide Notes: A Shared Task

2012 ◽  
Vol 5s1 ◽  
pp. BII.S9042 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. Pestian ◽  
Pawel Matykiewicz ◽  
Michelle Linn-Gust ◽  
Brett South ◽  
Ozlem Uzuner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Biomedical Domain ◽  
Shared Task ◽  
Clinical Text ◽  
Evaluation Measures ◽  
Suicide Notes ◽  
Data Production

This paper reports on a shared task involving the assignment of emotions to suicide notes. Two features distinguished this task from previous shared tasks in the biomedical domain. One is that it resulted in the corpus of fully anonymized clinical text and annotated suicide notes. This resource is permanently available and will (we hope) facilitate future research. The other key feature of the task is that it required categorization with respect to a large set of labels. The number of participants was larger than in any previous biomedical challenge task. We describe the data production process and the evaluation measures, and give a preliminary analysis of the results. Many systems performed at levels approaching the inter-coder agreement, suggesting that human-like performance on this task is within the reach of currently available technologies.

Supervisor to coworker social undermining: The moderating roles of bottom-line mentality and self-efficacy

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 756-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabi Eissa ◽  
Rebecca Wyland ◽  
Ritu Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Social Cognitive ◽  
Cognitive Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Social Undermining ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Trickle Down

AbstractThis research presents and tests a trickle-down model of social undermining in the workplace. Drawing on social cognitive theory, this study specifically demonstrates that supervisor social undermining is positively associated with coworker social undermining in the workplace. Furthermore, this study argues that employee bottom-line mentality will exacerbate the positive relationship between supervisor social undermining and coworker social undermining, whereas employee self-efficacy will buffer this positive relationship. Overall, our findings support our proposed trickle-down model using field data obtained from several information technology and financial organizations in India. Theoretical and practical implications as well as directions for future research are discussed.

scholarly journals Betting, Selection, and Luck: A Long-Run Analysis of Repeated Betting Markets

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulio Bottazzi ◽  
Daniele Giachini
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Quantal Response ◽  
Two Agents ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Binary Event ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
The Difference

We consider a repeated betting market populated by two agents who wage on a binary event according to generic betting strategies. We derive new simple criteria, based on the difference of relative entropies, to establish the relative wealth of the two agents in the long-run. Little information about agents’ behavior is needed to apply the criteria: it is sufficient to know the odds traders believe fair and how much they would bet when the odds are equal to the ones the other agent believes fair. Using our criteria, we show that for a large class of betting strategies, it is generically possible that the ultimate winner is only decided by luck. As an example, we apply our conditions to the case of Constant Relative Risk Averse (CRRA) and quantal response betting.

AN EXAMINATION OF IN-PLAY SPORTS BETTING USING ONE-DAY CRICKET MATCHES

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-109
Author(s):  
Steve Easton ◽  
Katherine Uylangco
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Betting Odds

There is a wide literature on sports betting markets, a literature that examines the informational efficiency of these markets and uses them as laboratories to test for possible impacts of psychological factors on financial markets. The innovation of this study is the examination of price behaviour in an in-play betting market – namely that for one-day cricket. Cricket provides an ideal construct in which to examine in-play market behaviour, as it is a sport where outcomes can be calibrated as good news or bad news on a play-by-play basis. The results from an examination of over 8000 balls corresponding to over 8000 “news events” shows that the in-play betting market is one in which news is impounded rapidly into betting odds. There is also evidence that odds have a level of predictive ability with respect to outcomes from balls before they are bowled. Further, there is evidence of a drift in odds subsequent to the outcome of balls being known.

The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney Paul ◽  
Andrew P. Weinbach ◽  
Kenneth Small
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Low Volume ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Market Strategies ◽  
Market Volume

Using betting market volume data for the NFL and NCAA Football, we examine the role of betting volume as it relates to bettor biases, forecast accuracy, and volume-based betting market strategies.  We find that betting volume has a statistically significant effect on the percentage bet on the favorite, but its impact is different between the two levels of football.  Increased betting volume was shown to not have an impact on forecast accuracy in the sports.  Simple betting simulations revealed that underdogs win more than implied by efficiency in low-volume NFL games, but other strategies did not reject market efficiency.

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