Correlated Parlay Betting: An Analysis of Betting Market Profitability Scenarios in College Football

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
Justin Davis ◽  
Jarrod Dawson ◽  
Kevin Krieger
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
College Football ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Betting Market

In this paper we consider the case of potential “correlated parlays” in American college football wagering.  The structure of college football games is such that games in which favorites prevail in “against-the-spread” (spread) bets are expected to be more likely to go over the posted “total” of the game. Using a longitudinal data set over the years from 2005-2015, our findings confirm this to be the case. However, to prevent bettors from utilizing this trend to profit in their wagers, many sportsbooks disallow some, or all, same-game parlay bets.  Consequently, we find that sportsbooks have generally been too conservative in refusing such bets and have thus foregone profitability in the vast majority of betting situations.  This analysis opens a new line of discussion in the area of sports market efficiency research – that of correlated parlay betting.  We consider this case and present potential directions for future research. 

Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 388-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Jay Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
College Football ◽  
Temperature Elevation ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Time Zones ◽  
Football Betting

This research examines whether the college football betting line and over/under accurately assimilate travel effects on visiting teams, including time zones traversed; direction and distance traveled; and temperature, elevation, and aridity changes. We investigate the market’s accuracy at predicting winners, point differentials, and points scored and examine its market efficiency, that is, whether travel affects the chance the home team covers the spread or the chance that an “over” bet wins. The betting market is found to be an inaccurate and inefficient processor of travel effects, most consistently for late-season games involving an underdog with a 1-hr time deficit versus its opponent.

Market efficiency and the Greek fixed-odds betting market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Kalaitzakis ◽  
Petros Lois ◽  
Spyros Repousis
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Online Betting ◽  
The One ◽  
Linear Probability ◽  
Opening And Closing ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically examine the efficiency of Greek fixed-odds (offline) betting market as offered by OPAP for the period 2016–2019.Design/methodology/approachUsing a four-year data sample of OPAP's opening and closing odds for football matches from all over the world and applying linear probability and probit models, the market efficiency is examined and the existence of possible anomalies is investigated.FindingsThe main findings of research suggest that although the odds are dominated primarily by favorite-longshot bias and secondarily by draw bias, this mispricing cannot prove profitable. However, the opening odds, the margin levels and the market structure provide information that is not fully captured by the closing odds, giving bettors profit opportunities. Thus, findings show that the semi-strong market efficiency is questionable. Finally, competition reduces commissions leading to more efficient odds.Practical implicationsThe conclusions of this study are useful for football betting market and, particularly, for government authorities, bookmakers and bettors. Findings can be extended in future research to prediction tasks.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study about the Greek football betting market. The contribution to the literature lies on the one hand in the examination of a monopolistic land-based betting market, which is being squeezed and threatened by the more competitive online betting market, and on the other hand in the simultaneous examination of the opening and closing odds.

Maximizing visitors at college football bowl games

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nels Popp ◽  
Jonathan Jensen ◽  
Rhett Jackson
Keyword(s):  
College Football ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sporting Events ◽  
Event Management ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hierarchical Regression Model ◽  
Tourism Professionals

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to isolate factors predictive of event attendees, and assist tourism professionals such as members of host committees, in maximizing the number of out-of-town visitors to their region and optimizing tourism-related revenue when hosting college football bowl games. Design/methodology/approach A total of 16 demand variables were entered into a hierarchical regression model, including the stature of the event and market-related variables, as well as team-related variables reflecting team or program stature and current season performance. Findings A final model containing seven variables (bowl age, market population, conference affiliation, bowl game stature, season wins, home attendance, and distance traveled) predicted 77.5 percent of the variance in bowl game attendance. Research limitations/implications This paper illustrates the use of predictive modeling for major sport event attendance with a unique sample and variables explored. Future research may build off the model to explore attendance for other populations or events. Practical implications The applied nature of this study allows practitioners working in the tourism and event management field to incorporate a predictive model to best select participants in sporting events to maximize event attendees. Originality/value Understanding the variables which predict event attendees in the context of college football bowl games provide useful data to practitioners. This study advances this area of research by treating event participants as unique observations (something which has not been done in prior studies), and looking at a new data set which incorporates the College Football Playoff era.

The Efficiency of Pelota Betting Markets

2013 ◽  
pp. 171-193
Author(s):  
Loreto Llorente ◽  
Josemari Aizpurua ◽  
Javier Puértolas
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets

In pelota matches, which are games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, wagers on the winner are made between viewers through a middleman who receives 16 percent of the payout. This chapter presents an analysis of this betting market under three different concepts of market efficiency widely utilized in the literature. Attention is then turned to another concept of market efficiency with the preliminary analysis of a set of field data. Finally, some insights are provided for future research on hedging strategies in these markets.

Measures Collected on the USMA Class of 1998 as Part of the Baseline Officer Longitudinal Data Set (BOLDS)

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynn M. Milan ◽  
Dennis R. Bourne ◽  
Michelle M. Zazanis ◽  
Paul T. Bartone
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Data Set

scholarly journals The COVID Connection: Pandemic Anxiety, COVID-19 Comprehension, and Digital Confidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 000276422110031
Author(s):  
Laura Robinson ◽  
Jeremy Schulz ◽  
Øyvind N. Wiborg ◽  
Elisha Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Digital Inequality ◽  
Partner Status ◽  
General Anxiety ◽  
Nationally Representative

This article presents logistic models examining how pandemic anxiety and COVID-19 comprehension vary with digital confidence among adults in the United States during the first wave of the pandemic. As we demonstrate statistically with a nationally representative data set, the digitally confident have lower probability of experiencing physical manifestations of pandemic anxiety and higher probability of adequately comprehending critical information on COVID-19. The effects of digital confidence on both pandemic anxiety and COVID-19 comprehension persist, even after a broad range of potentially confounding factors are taken into account, including sociodemographic factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, metropolitan status, and partner status. They also remain discernable after the introduction of general anxiety, as well as income and education. These results offer evidence that the digitally disadvantaged experience greater vulnerability to the secondary effects of the pandemic in the form of increased somatized stress and decreased COVID-19 comprehension. Going forward, future research and policy must make an effort to address digital confidence and digital inequality writ large as crucial factors mediating individuals’ responses to the pandemic and future crises.

scholarly journals A data acquisition setup for data driven acoustic design

2021 ◽  
pp. 1351010X2098690
Author(s):  
Romana Rust ◽  
Achilleas Xydis ◽  
Kurt Heutschi ◽  
Nathanael Perraudin ◽  
Gonzalo Casas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Acquisition ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Computational Design ◽  
Surface Structures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Process Measures ◽  
First Results ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Automated Data Acquisition

In this paper, we present a novel interdisciplinary approach to study the relationship between diffusive surface structures and their acoustic performance. Using computational design, surface structures are iteratively generated and 3D printed at 1:10 model scale. They originate from different fabrication typologies and are designed to have acoustic diffusion and absorption effects. An automated robotic process measures the impulse responses of these surfaces by positioning a microphone and a speaker at multiple locations. The collected data serves two purposes: first, as an exploratory catalogue of different spatio-temporal-acoustic scenarios and second, as data set for predicting the acoustic response of digitally designed surface geometries using machine learning. In this paper, we present the automated data acquisition setup, the data processing and the computational generation of diffusive surface structures. We describe first results of comparative studies of measured surface panels and conclude with steps of future research.

scholarly journals What Countries Select More Experienced Leaders? The PolEx Measure of Political Experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Alexander Baturo ◽  
Johan A. Elkink
Keyword(s):  
Career Paths ◽  
Latent Variable ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Political Experience ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Regime Types ◽  
The Difference

Abstract How can one assess which countries select more experienced leaders for the highest office? There is wide variation in prior career paths of national leaders within, and even more so between, regime types. It is therefore challenging to obtain a truly comparative measure of political experience; empirical studies have to rely on proxies instead. This article proposes PolEx, a measure of political experience that abstracts away from the details of career paths and generalizes based on the duration, quality and breadth of an individual's experience in politics. The analysis draws on a novel data set of around 2,000 leaders from 1950 to 2017 and uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate PolEx. The article illustrates how the new measure can be used comparatively to assess whether democracies select more experienced leaders. The authors find that while on average they do, the difference with non-democracies has declined dramatically since the early 2000s. Future research may leverage PolEx to investigate the role of prior political experience in, for example, policy making and crisis management.

In the Face of Critique

2011 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elyse Amend ◽  
David M. Secko
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Jigsaw Puzzle ◽  
Science Journalism ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Literature Searches ◽  
The Face ◽  
Qualitative Knowledge ◽  
Qualitative Literature

The qualitative literature related to health and science journalism often states that little is known about the perspectives of journalists. This is, in part, because of individual studies being like scattered pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. In this article, the authors report the results of a qualitative metasynthesis aimed at reassembling the qualitative literature involving health and science journalists. Comprehensive literature searches gave a data set of 21 studies whose synthesis produced 14 metathemes and four taxonomic groupings. This synthesis is used to show the state of qualitative knowledge and the potential for future research.

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