AN EXAMINATION OF IN-PLAY SPORTS BETTING USING ONE-DAY CRICKET MATCHES

There is a wide literature on sports betting markets, a literature that examines the informational efficiency of these markets and uses them as laboratories to test for possible impacts of psychological factors on financial markets. The innovation of this study is the examination of price behaviour in an in-play betting market – namely that for one-day cricket. Cricket provides an ideal construct in which to examine in-play market behaviour, as it is a sport where outcomes can be calibrated as good news or bad news on a play-by-play basis. The results from an examination of over 8000 balls corresponding to over 8000 “news events” shows that the in-play betting market is one in which news is impounded rapidly into betting odds. There is also evidence that odds have a level of predictive ability with respect to outcomes from balls before they are bowled. Further, there is evidence of a drift in odds subsequent to the outcome of balls being known.

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REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS

The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics ◽

10.5750/jgbe.v5i2.569 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 42-56 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rodney J Paul ◽

Andrew P Weinbach ◽

Brad Humphreys

Keyword(s):

Regression Models ◽

Sports Betting ◽

Least Squares Regression ◽

Professional Basketball ◽

The Public ◽

Behavioral Bias ◽

Hot Hand ◽

Betting Market ◽

Closing Price ◽

Betting Markets

The “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks. Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book. Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games. Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases. The “hot hand” could exist, but closing point spreads may not reflect this bias due to an unbalanced book. Using a 6 season sample of NBA betting market data, we show wagering against the “hot hand” does not win more than implied by efficiency. However, OLS and two-stage least squares regression models show that bettors believe in the hot hand, as teams on streaks attract a significantly higher number of bets. This illustrates that the public believes in the hot hand, reflecting an actual behavioral bias. This bias exists even though the closing price serves as an optimal and unbiased forecast of outcomes.

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IS THE SOCCER BETTING MARKET EFFICIENT? A CROSS-COUNTRY INVESTIGATION USING THE FIBONACCI STRATEGY

The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics ◽

10.5750/jgbe.v6i2.580 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 29-49 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ender Demir ◽

Hakan Danis ◽

Ugo Rigoni

Keyword(s):

Value At Risk ◽

Fibonacci Sequence ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Sports Betting ◽

The Core ◽

Betting Market ◽

The World ◽

Betting Markets ◽

Cross Country ◽

Positive Return

The sports betting industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the world and therefore the literature on sports betting has gained momentum in the last two decades. The literature mainly focuses on testing the efficiency of the sports betting market. The prediction of game outcomes or comparing the odds of bookmakers by predicted odds and the search for betting strategies which yield significant positive returns have been the core of the market efficiency tests. This study, instead of making any predictions or generating odds to be compared by bookmakers’ odds, implements the Fibonacci sequence on draws as a betting rule for 8 European soccer leagues for the seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009. As the odds offered by bookmakers are narrowly distributed, implementing the Fibonacci strategy for 8 soccer leagues of Europe for 4 seasons yields positive return for all cases and also controlling with simulated data the strategy is found to be in most circumstances profitable. The results indicate that the bookmakers are inefficient in terms of predicting the draws and the soccer betting markets are inefficient. Therefore, the betters could exploit this inefficiency by following Fibonacci strategy assuming they have enough financial liquidity. Furthermore, we calculate the capital needed to pursue the strategy resorting to the Value at Risk (VaR) methodology and reveal that the VaR is only 143€ (assuming that the first bet is 1€) at 95% confidence level.

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Analyzing Information Efficiency in the Betting Market for Association Football League Winners

The Journal of Prediction Markets ◽

10.5750/jpm.v7i2.614 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 55-70 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Lars Magnus Hvattum

Keyword(s):

Sports Betting ◽

Information Efficiency ◽

Association Football ◽

Betting Market ◽

Betting Markets

Sports betting markets have attracted a fair amount of research over the years. For association football, most of this research has focused on predicting the outcome of single matches and hence on the evaluating the efficiency of the match results betting markets. This paper presents a study on the betting market for league winners, a market that operates for almost a full year and therefore operates under different conditions than the relatively short-lived match results markets. Attempts are made to analyze both weak and semi-strong forms of information efficiency. Although the results are mixed, there are some indications that the market is inefficient with respect to both forms of information.

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Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9010022 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 22

Author(s):

Philip W. S. Newall ◽

Dominic Cortis

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Large Body ◽

Sports Betting ◽

Potential Outcomes ◽

Horse Racing ◽

Multiple Outcomes ◽

Betting Market ◽

Betting Markets ◽

Individual Sports ◽

High Chance

A large body of literature on the favorite–longshot bias finds that sports bettors in a variety of markets appear to have irrational biases toward either longshots (which offer a small chance of winning a large amount of money) or favorites (which offer a high chance of winning a small amount of money). While early studies in horse racing led to an impression that longshot bias is dominant, favorite bias has also now been found in a variety of sports betting markets. This review proposes that the evidence is consistent with both biases being present in the average sports bettor. Sports betting markets with only two potential outcomes, where the favorite therefore has a probability >0.5 of happening, often produce favorite bias. Sports betting markets with multiple outcomes, where the favorite’s probability is usually <0.5, appear more consistent with longshot bias. The presence of restricted odds ranges within any given betting market provides an explanation for why single studies support, at most, one bias. This literature review highlights how individual sports bettors might possess biases toward both highly likely, and highly unlikely, events, a contradictory view that has not been summarized in detail before.

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IMPACT OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND TERRORISM ON STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

Jinnah Business Review ◽

10.53369/nbiy1417 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 01 (02) ◽

pp. 47-54

Author(s):

Hasan Raza ◽

Shafaq Malik

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Financial Markets ◽

Stock Returns ◽

Political Instability ◽

Bad News ◽

Good News ◽

Stock Market Volatility ◽

Egarch Model ◽

Year 2000 ◽

The Impact

This study examines the impact of terrorist activities and regime in Pakistan on the return and volatility dynamics of the financial markets in Pakistan between year 2000 and 2010. The study constructs two dummy variables that quantify political instability and terror and examine the effect on stock market volatility. An ARCH and GARCH model to discover evidence that terrorism and regime has a significant impact on both the return and volatility dynamics of stock markets. To capture the asymmetries in terms of negative and positive shocks, this study also uses threshold GARCH (TGARCH) and an exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model. From both of the TGARCH and EGARCH results, it can be reveal that for the return of KSE-100, there are asymmetries in the news that shows bad news has a larger effect on the volatility of return than good news. Finally study of the reaction of the stock market to terrorist events may also provide indication to investors and speculators to adjust their positions when such events transpire.

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