What About Currency Manipulation?

Author(s):  
Anne O. Krueger

What is the exchange rate and what does it have to do with trade? A country’s currency, or exchange rate, is the price of a unit of foreign exchange in domestic currency (such as 1 British pound costs $1.30) or its converse, the amount...

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
KHATTAB Ahmed ◽  
SALMI Yahya

The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.


Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.


2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 1631-1657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kris Boudt ◽  
Fang Liu ◽  
Piet Sercu

Abstract We extend the constant-elasticity regression that is the default choice when equities’ exposure to currencies is estimated. In a proper real-option-style model for the exporters’ equity exposure to the foreign exchange rate, we argue, the convexity of the relationship implies that the elasticity should depend on the exchange rate level. For instance, it should shrink to zero when the option to export becomes worthless, and that should happen at a critical exchange rate that is still strictly positive. We propose a class of tractable multi-regime regression models featuring, in line with the real-options logic, smooth transitions and within-regime dynamics in the foreign exchange exposure. We then analyze the exchange rate exposure of Chinese exporting firms and find that the model in which the moneyness of the export option has a positive impact on the exchange rate exposure detects a significantly positive and convex exposure for 40% and 65% of the firms depending on whether the market return is included in the regression or not.


Significance Venezuela’s economic adjustment, announced on August 17 by President Nicolas Maduro, has met with international scepticism. There is little confidence that the redenomination of the domestic currency will achieve intended aims of reducing hyperinflation or kick-starting economic reactivation. Impacts The government will be under pressure to explain the economic measures, specifically the pegging of the exchange rate to the petro. The exodus of Venezuelans will accelerate despite efforts by neighbouring countries to prevent the outflow. Maduro’s claim that US sanctions are to blame for the woeful state of the economy will maintain credibility among government supporters.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Nanda Eulia ◽  
Syaparuddin Syaparuddin ◽  
Parmadi Parmadi

This study aims at the implications of the development of foreign exchange reserves, exports, inflation, and the exchange rate of the rupiah and Malaysian ringgit for the period 2000-2017, the implications of the effect of exports, inflation, and the rupiah exchange rate on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia and the effect of exports, inflation and the value of the rupiah. exchange rate ringgit against Foreign Exchange Reserves in Malaysia. The type of data used in this study is secondary data which is periodic data from 2000 – 2017, hypothesis testing itself using multiple linear regression equations. The analytical tools used are the joint test (F-Test), Partial Regression Coefficient Test (t-test), and Classical Assumption Test. Based on the t-test analysis, it can be seen that exports cannot affect foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, inflation has a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with a coefficient of 0.159% and the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with a coefficient of 1.446%. Keywords: Exports, Inflation, Exchange rates, Foreign reserves


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
RAAD MOZIB LALON

This paper attempts to reveal whether the foreign exchange (FX) derivatives market effectively and efficiently reduces the volatility to foreign exchange rate fiuctuations. Cross-country evidence suggests that development ofthe FXderivatives market does not boost up spot exchange rate volatility and reduces aggregate exposure to currency risk. Intraday evidence for Chile shows that activity in the forward market has not been associated with higher volatility in the exchange rate following the adoption ofa fioating exchange rate regime. The study also found no evidence that net positions of large participants in the FX derivatives market help to predict the exchange rate. These findings support the view that development of the FX derivatives market is valuable to reduce aggregate currency risk.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (PNEA) ◽  
pp. 485-507
Author(s):  
Roberto Joaquín Santillán Salgado ◽  
Alejandro Fonseca Ramírez ◽  
Luis Nelson Romero

This paper examines the “day-of-the-week” anomaly in the foreign exchange market of six major Latin American countries’ currencies: (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru), all with respect to the United States’ dollar. The returns of daily exchange rates are stationary, so we use linear regressions combined with GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH models to explore the presence of the “day-of-the-week” anomaly. The results confirm the presence of “abnormal” effects in some of the currencies and in some days of the week, particularly on Fridays and Mondays. Moreover, volatility in exchange rates shows clustering behavior, as well as leverage effects, which are carefully modelled in our analysis. This paper contributes to the literature by studying the “day-of-the-week” effects in currency exchange rate markets, a clear innovation with respect to the typical stock market analysis. The results reported are useful for foreign exchange market traders, currency exposure management decision makers, monetary authorities, and financial policy designers in the countries included in the study. Indeed, the results suggest the presence of a typical behavior of the exchange rate of all the currencies included in the sample.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Didenko ◽  
N. I. Morozko ◽  
N. I. Morozko

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.


2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 229
Author(s):  
Roberto Meurer ◽  
Felipe Wolk Teixeira ◽  
Eduardo Cardeal Tomazzia

This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.


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