Simulation of Potato Late Blight in the Andes. II: Validation of the LATEBLIGHT Model

LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage, was validated for the Andes of Peru. Validation was needed due to recent modifications made to the model, and because the model had not been formally tested outside of New York State. Prior to validation, procedures to estimate the starting time of the epidemic, the amount of initial inoculum, and leaf wetness duration were developed. Observed data for validation were from field trials with three potato cultivars in the Peruvian locations of Comas and Huancayo in the department of Junín, and Oxapampa in the department of Pasco in 1999 and 2000 for a total of 12 epidemics. These data had not been used previously for estimating model parameters. Observed and simulated epidemics were compared graphically using disease progress curves and numerically using the area under the disease progress curve in a confidence interval test, an equivalence test, and an envelope of acceptance test. The level of agreement between observed and simulated epidemics was high, and the model was found to be valid according to subjective and objective performance criteria. The approach of measuring fitness components of potato cultivars infected with isolates of a certain clonal lineage of P. infestans under controlled conditions and then using the experimental results as parameters of LATEBLIGHT proved to be effective. Fungicide treatments were not considered in this study.

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Estimation of a Time-varying Apparent Infection Rate from Plant Disease Progress Curves: A Particle Filter Approach

10.1101/625822 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Kaique dos S Alves ◽

Willian B Moraes ◽

Wellington B da Silva ◽

Emerson M Del Ponte

Keyword(s):

Particle Filter ◽

Infection Rate ◽

Plant Disease ◽

Host Susceptibility ◽

Time Varying ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Initial Inoculum ◽

Disease Progress ◽

Progress Curve ◽

Apparent Infection Rate

AbstractThe parameters of the simplest (two-parameter) epidemiological models that best fit plant disease progress curve (DPC) data are the surrogate for initial inoculum (y0) and the (constant) apparent infection rate (r), both being useful for understanding, predicting and comparing epidemics. The assumption thatris constant is not reasonable and fluctuations are expected due to systematic changes in factors affecting infection (e.g. weather favorability, host susceptibility, etc.), thus leading to a time-varyingr, orr(t). An arrangement of these models (e.g. logistic, monomolecular, etc.) can be used to obtainrbetween two time points, given the disease (y) data are available. We evaluated a data assimilation technique, Particle Filter (PF), as an alternative method for estimatingr(t). Synthetic DPC data for a hypothetical polycyclic epidemics were simulated using the logistic differential equation for scenarios that combined five patterns ofr(t) (constant, increasing, decreasing, random or sinusoidal); five increasing time assessment interval (Δt= 1, 3, 5, 7 or 9 time units - t.u.); and two levels of noise (α = 0.1 or 0.25) assigned toy(t). The analyses of 50 simulated 60-t.u. DPCs showed that the errors of PF-derivedwere lower (RMSE < 0.05) for Δt< 5 t.u. and least affected by the presence of noise in the measure compared with the logit-derivedr(t). The ability to more accurately estimater(t) using the novel method may be useful to increase knowledge of field epidemics and identify within-season drivers that may explainr(t) behaviour.

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Assessing and minimizing the development and spread of fire blight following mechanical thinning and pruning in apple orchards

Plant Disease ◽

10.1094/pdis-06-20-1324-re ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Anna Wallis ◽

Mario R. Miranda-Sazo ◽

Kerik Cox

Keyword(s):

Point Source ◽

Fire Blight ◽

New York State ◽

Low Risk ◽

Apple Orchards ◽

Disease Progress ◽

Progress Curve ◽

Bud Set ◽

Terminal Bud ◽

Mechanical Thinning

The adoption of mechanical thinning and pruning in commercial apple orchards has largely been limited by the risk of development and spread of fire blight. This devastating disease, caused by the bacterial pathogen Erwinia amylovora, may be transmitted by mechanical injury such as pruning, especially under warm, moist conditions conducive to bacterial growth, infection, and disease development. However, risk may be mitigated by avoiding highest risk times and applying a bactericide, such as streptomycin, following mechanical thinning or pruning. In ‘Gala’ and ‘Idared’ orchards, we evaluated the risk of fire blight development and spread following mechanical thinning early in bloom (20% bloom), when seasonal temperatures are cooler and there are few open flowers available for infection. In both orchards, we also evaluated the spread and development of fire blight by mechanical pruning in July and in August, before and after terminal bud set when shoot growth is slowed and less susceptible to infection. We also assessed the potential efficacy of a streptomycin or Bacillus subtilis biopesticide application following mechanical thinning and pruning to mitigate the spread of fire blight. In the ‘Gala’ orchard, disease never developed beyond the inoculated tree following thinning or pruning, which was unexpected for this highly susceptible cultivar. In the ‘Idared’ orchard, incidence of blossom or shoot blight from the point source, represented as relative area under the disease progress curve (rAUDPC) was rarely different for trees that received mechanical thinning or mechanical pruning compared to untreated trees, and was frequently eliminated or reduced when the antibiotic streptomycin or the B. subtilis biopesticide was applied within 24 h of mechanical thinning or pruning. For both thinning and pruning, incidence of fire blight dropped off quickly beyond the inoculated tree in the ‘Idared’ orchard and generally was not observed in trees beyond 10-15 m from the inoculated point source or predicted beyond 10 m by exponential and power law models fit to the disease progress curves. The results of this work demonstrate the low risk for fire blight development and spread by mechanical thinning and pruning when practiced under low-risk conditions—early in bloom for mechanical thinning, and after terminal bud set (in August) for mechanical pruning—especially when paired with a subsequent bactericide application. This study demonstrates the safe use of mechanical thinning and pruning in commercial apple production, corroborated by anecdotal evidence from apple growers in Western New York State.

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Stability of Slow-Rusting Resistance to Puccinia asparagi and Managing Rust in Asparagus

Plant Disease ◽

10.1094/pdis-09-11-0797-re ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 96 (7) ◽

pp. 997-1000 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Dennis A. Johnson

Keyword(s):

Irrigation Management ◽

Field Trials ◽

Disease Progress Curve ◽

Resistant Cultivars ◽

Disease Progress ◽

Slow Rusting ◽

South Central ◽

Progress Curve ◽

The Stability

The stability of slow-rusting resistance to Puccinia asparagi in several asparagus cultivars was evaluated in two replicated field trials. Rust epidemics were monitored in each trial for 8 years spanning a period of 13 years (1983–1990 and 1987–1995). Inoculum of P. asparagi, an autoecious macrocyclic rust, originated each year as teliospores. In the first trial, the cultivars Jersey Titan, Jersey Centennial, Jersey Giant, Delmonte-361, and UC-157 had consistently lower area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) values than Wash T2 and WSU-1. Cultivar Mary Washington was intermediate between the two groups of resistant and susceptible cultivars in 6 of 8 years. Jersey Titan consistently ranked number 1 for resistance with the lowest AUDPC values all 8 years. In the second trial, Jersey Giant, Delmonte-361, and UC-157 had consistently lower AUDPC values than Larac, Gynlim, Cito, Largo 17-3, and Franklim in each of 8 years. Jersey Giant, Delmonte-361, and UC-157 always ranked low (1, 2, or 3) for AUDPC. A shift from rust-susceptible to rust-resistant asparagus cultivars began in central Washington around 1996. In 2011, resistant cultivars made up nearly 96% of the asparagus plantings. From 1996 to 2011, rust was not considered a problem in commercial fields with slow-rusting resistant cultivars. Use of durable, slow-rusting cultivars, along with sanitation practices that reduced levels of aecia in nonharvested nurseries and on volunteer asparagus plants and judicious irrigation management, has effectively managed asparagus rust in commercial fields for at least 29 years in south-central Washington.

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Yield and resistance of potato cultivars with colour flesh to potato late blight

Plant Soil and Environment ◽

10.17221/371/2017-pse ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 63 (No. 7) ◽

pp. 328-333

Author(s):

Pazderů Kateřina ◽

Hamouz Karel

Keyword(s):

Late Blight ◽

Field Experiments ◽

Potato Late Blight ◽

Russet Burbank ◽

Weak Dependence ◽

Potato Cultivars ◽

Disease Progress Curve ◽

Disease Progress ◽

Progress Curve ◽

Better Than

The resistance to potato late blight (as AUDPC – the area under the disease progress curve) and yield were evaluated in precise field experiments with 13 colour-fleshed potato cultivars. Red Emmalie and Blaue Anneliese were the most profitable cultivars of potatoes with coloured flesh, the overall yield did not differ statistically from the control cv. Agria. Cv. Blaue Anneliese resistance to potato late blight was considerably better than both control cultivars, other 2 cultivars HB Red and Red Emmalie were similar to cv. Agria. Surprisingly, cv. Russet Burbank was found to be more resistant than most cultivars tested. A statistically significant weak dependence (r = 0.36) between the percentage of infestation of plants in the T6 evaluation date (6–8 August in individual years) and the yield was detected, the slightly stronger (r = 0.40) was the correlation between AUDPC values and total yields.

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Resistance to Phytophthora infestans Clonal Lineage US-23 in Potato Cultivars and Its Relationship with Early Blight Resistance and Tuber Yield

Plant Disease ◽

10.1094/pdis-03-21-0594-re ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Weiya Xue ◽

Kathleen G. Haynes ◽

Xinshun Qu

Keyword(s):

Late Blight ◽

Phytophthora Infestans ◽

Early Blight ◽

Tuber Yield ◽

Late Blight Resistance ◽

Field Trials ◽

Potato Cultivars ◽

Blight Resistance ◽

Clonal Lineage ◽

Progress Curve

Resistance to late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans clonal lineage US-23, in 217 old and modern potato cultivars was evaluated in field trials in 2016 and 2017 in Pennsylvania. Significant differences in resistance were found among these cultivars (P < 0.0001). Significant interaction between cultivars and environments was found (P < 0.0001). The values of relative area under the disease progress curve ranged from 0 to 0.5841 in 2016 and from 0 to 0.5469 in 2017. Broad-sense heritability of late blight resistance was estimated to be 0.91 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.88 to 0.93. Cluster analysis classified the cultivars into 5 groups: resistant, moderately resistant, intermediate, moderately susceptible, and susceptible. Thirty cultivars showing resistance and 32 cultivars showing moderate resistance were identified. The 217 cultivars were also evaluated for foliar maturity, tuber yield and resistance to early blight, caused by Alternaria solani. A few cultivars with late blight resistance independent of late maturity were found. Late blight resistance and early blight resistance were positively correlated, and 17 cultivars possessed resistance to both diseases. Yield tradeoff associated with late blight resistance was not observed among the cultivars in the absence of disease pressure.

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Use Of a Simulation Model to Explore Fungicide Strategies for Control of Cercospora Leafspot of Peanut1

Peanut Science ◽

10.3146/i0095-3679-15-1-11 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 39-43 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

G. R. Knudsen ◽

C. S. Johnson ◽

H. W. Spurr

Keyword(s):

Simulation Model ◽

Disease Severity ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Field Trials ◽

Computer Simulation Model ◽

Financial Benefit ◽

Advisory Program ◽

Disease Progress Curve ◽

Disease Progress ◽

Progress Curve

Abstract A sub-model describing persistence and efficacy of chlorothalonil fungicide was incorporated into a computer simulation model of Cercospora leafspot of peanut. The resultant model was validated using independent data sets from field trials over a two-year period. Predicted disease progress curves and area under the disease progress curve for different fungicide application schedules and rates were compared with field observations. The model was then used to compare predicted disease severity and area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for a calendar spray schedule vs a leafspot advisory program under different weather conditions. Predicted disease severity levels and area under disease progress curves were similar for advisory and calendar spray schedules. Results were insensitive to changes in parameters describing fungicide persistence or efficacy. The model described herein is a good estimator of the combined effects of weather and chlorothalonil treatments on disease progress, effectively ranks treatments or environmental conditions in terms of their effect on leafspot, and provides a basis for comparison of fungicide scheduling strategies. The simulation model predicted AUDPC more accurately than end-of-season disease, and AUDPC is a more reliable indicator of the effect of peanut leafspot disease on yield loss. Simulation experiments will be useful in optimizing fungicide or biocontrol strategies for long-term financial benefit to growers.

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Characterization of Early Blight Resistance in Potato Cultivars

Plant Disease ◽

10.1094/pdis-05-18-0794-re ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 103 (4) ◽

pp. 629-637 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Weiya Xue ◽

Kathleen G. Haynes ◽

Xinshun Qu

Keyword(s):

Early Blight ◽

Field Experiments ◽

Visual Assessment ◽

Field Trials ◽

Potato Cultivars ◽

Blight Resistance ◽

Strong Negative Correlation ◽

Early Maturity ◽

Progress Curve ◽

Moderately Resistant

Early blight, caused by the fungus Alternaria solani, is one of the most economically important foliar diseases of potatoes worldwide. In this study, 217 tetraploid old and modern potato cultivars were evaluated for foliar resistance to early blight in field experiments in Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2017. Relative area under the disease progress curve (RAUDPC) was calculated based on visual assessment of foliar disease during the growing season each year. RAUDPC ranged from 0.0090 to 0.7372 in 2016 and from 0.0215 to 0.7889 in 2017, respectively. Significant differences in resistance to A. solani among cultivars were found (P < 0.0001). A significant interaction was found between cultivar and environment (P < 0.0001). Cluster analysis classified the cultivars into five groups: resistant, moderately resistant, intermediate, moderately susceptible, and susceptible. Broad-sense heritability for early blight resistance was estimated as 0.89 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.86 to 0.92. All cultivars were also evaluated for foliage maturity in separate field trials in 2016 and 2017, and a strong negative correlation between early blight resistance and maturity was found. Maturity-adjusted RAUDPC was calculated by regressing maturity on RAUDPC; predicted values more than two standard deviations greater or less than observed values were used to identify cultivars with greater genetic susceptibility or resistance to early blight, respectively, independent of maturity. Although most resistant and moderately resistant cultivars showed late maturity and most susceptible cultivars showed early maturity, a few exceptions were found.

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Epidemiology and management of bacterial leaf spot on watermelon caused byPseudomonas syringae

Plant Disease ◽

10.1094/pdis-11-16-1628-re ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 101 (7) ◽

pp. 1222-1229 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

E. A. Newberry ◽

L. Ritchie ◽

B. Babu ◽

T. Sanchez ◽

K. A. Beckham ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Severity ◽

Pseudomonas Syringae ◽

Leaf Spot ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Field Trials ◽

Multiple Regression Model ◽

Bacterial Leaf Spot ◽

Progress Curve ◽

Cool Conditions

Bacterial leaf spot of watermelon caused by Pseudomonas syringae has been an emerging disease in the southeastern United States in recent years. Disease outbreaks in Florida were widespread from 2013 to 2014 and resulted in foliar blighting at the early stages of the crop and transplant losses. We conducted a series of field trials at two locations over the course of two years to examine the chemical control options that may be effective in management of this disease, and to investigate the environmental conditions conducive for bacterial leaf spot development. Weekly applications of acibenzolar-S-methyl (ASM) foliar, ASM drip, or copper hydroxide mixed with ethylene bis-dithiocarbamate were effective in reducing the standardized area under the disease progress curve (P < 0.05). Pearson’s correlation test demonstrated a negative relationship between the average weekly temperature and disease severity (–0.77, P = 0.0002). When incorporated into a multiple regression model with the square root transformed average weekly rainfall, these two variables accounted for 71% of the variability observed in the weekly disease severity (P < 0.0001). This information should be considered when choosing the planting date for watermelon seedlings as the cool conditions often encountered early in the spring season are conducive for bacterial leaf spot development.

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Management of Daylily Rust With Different Fungicides and Fungicide Combinations

Plant Health Progress ◽

10.1094/php-03-17-0021-rs ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 162-165 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Robert S. Emmitt ◽

James W. Buck

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Disease Management ◽

Disease Severity ◽

Low Cost ◽

Single Application ◽

Southeast United States ◽

Disease Progress Curve ◽

Disease Progress ◽

Progress Curve ◽

Disease Pressure

Production nurseries and daylily hybridizers in the southeast United States rely on the use of fungicides to manage daylily rust, caused by the fungus Puccinia hemerocallidis. Foliar sprays of pyraclostrobin, flutolanil, tebuconazole, myclobutanil, chlorothalonil, mancozeb, pyraclostrobin + boscalid, flutolanil + tebuconazole, flutolanil + myclobutanil, flutolanil + chlorothalonil, and flutolanil + mancozeb applied on 14-day intervals, and a nontreated control, were evaluated under high disease pressure at three locations in Griffin, GA, in 2015. Tebuconazole or the tebuconazole + flutolanil treatment consistently had the lowest area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) of the treatments. The addition of flutolanil to chlorothalonil or mancozeb did not improve rust control and no difference in disease severity was observed in any treatment containing contact fungicides on all assessment dates. Single application costs ranged from $10.21 to $95.96 with tebuconazole providing excellent disease management at a relatively low cost per application ($13.90).

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