scholarly journals Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic

2022 ◽  
Vol 19 (186) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elliott H. Bussell ◽  
Nik J. Cunniffe

Epidemics can particularly threaten certain sub-populations. For example, for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the elderly are often preferentially protected. For diseases of plants and animals, certain sub-populations can drive mitigation because they are intrinsically more valuable for ecological, economic, socio-cultural or political reasons. Here, we use optimal control theory to identify strategies to optimally protect a ‘high-value’ sub-population when there is a limited budget and epidemiological uncertainty. We use protection of the Redwood National Park in California in the face of the large ongoing state-wide epidemic of sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum ) as a case study. We concentrate on whether control should be focused entirely within the National Park itself, or whether treatment of the growing epidemic in the surrounding ‘buffer region’ can instead be more profitable. We find that, depending on rates of infection and the size of the ongoing epidemic, focusing control on the high-value region is often optimal. However, priority should sometimes switch from the buffer region to the high-value region only as the local outbreak grows. We characterize how the timing of any switch depends on epidemiological and logistic parameters, and test robustness to systematic misspecification of these factors due to imperfect prior knowledge.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elliott H. Bussell ◽  
Nik J. Cunniffe

AbstractEpidemics can particularly threaten certain sub-populations. For example, for SARS-CoV-2, the elderly are often preferentially protected. For diseases of plants and animals, certain sub-populations can drive mitigation because they are intrinsically more valuable for ecological, economic, socio-cultural or political reasons. Here we use optimal control theory to identify strategies to optimally protect a “high value” sub-population when there is a limited budget and epidemiological uncertainty. We use protection of the Redwood National Park in California in the face of the large ongoing state-wide epidemic of sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum) as a case study. We concentrate on whether control should be focused entirely within the National Park itself, or whether treatment of the growing epidemic in the surrounding “buffer region” can instead be more profitable. We find that, depending on rates of infection and the size of the ongoing epidemic, focusing control on the high value region is often optimal. However, priority should sometimes switch from the buffer region to the high value region only as the local outbreak grows. We characterise how the timing of any switch depends on epidemiological and logistic parameters, and test robustness to systematic misspecification of these factors due to imperfect prior knowledge.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 2567-2571
Author(s):  
Megha Murali ◽  
Arunima Kumari ◽  
Sujeet Kumar

Skin is the largest organ of human body. Skin complaints affect people of all ages from the neonate to the elderly and cause harm in a number of ways such as discomfort, disfigurement, disability and even death rarely. Vitiligo is the condition presenting with whitish discoloration of the skin. It is an acquired condition in which circumscribed de-pigmented patches can be seen. The destruction of melanocytes, pigment forming cells, causes lack of melanin, coloring pigment which leads to this condition. It affects 1-2% of the population worldwide. Onset is usually in the childhood and females are mostly affected. In Ayurveda, the science of life, the disease called “switra” can be correlated to vitiligo. Aim of the present study is to evaluate the action of Ayurvedic medications on switra roga. Here, am presenting a case of 5 years old girl who came to OPD with c/o white patches over left side of the face. A notable improvement in the condition has been observed in this case. Keywords: Switra roga, Vitiligo, twak vikara.


Madroño ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
William C. Weinberg ◽  
Jessica R. Suoja ◽  
Lucy P. Kerhoulas ◽  
Ryan J. Maberry ◽  
Christopher A. Lee ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Benjamin Roche ◽  
Andres Garchitorena ◽  
David Roiz

AbstractDue to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a case-study, we develop a simple model considering contacts between age classes to derive the general impact of partial lockdown strategies targeted at specific age groups. We found that epidemic suppression can only be achieved by targeting isolation of young and middle age groups with high efficiency. All other strategies tested result in a flatter epidemic curve, with outcomes in (e.g. mortality and health system over-capacity) dependent of the age groups targeted and the isolation efficiency. Targeting only the elderly can decrease the expected mortality burden, but in proportions lower than more integrative strategies involving several age groups. While not aiming to provide quantitative forecasts, our study shows the benefits and constraints of different partial lockdown strategies, which could help guide decision-making.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4444
Author(s):  
Ding Wang ◽  
Kaan Ozbay ◽  
Zilin Bian

In many large-scale evacuations, public agencies often have limited resources to evacuate all citizens, especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly and disabled people, and the demand for additional transportation means for evacuation can be high. The recent development of ride-sourcing companies can be leveraged in evacuations as an additional and important resource in future evacuation planning. In contrast to public transit, the availability of ride-sourcing drivers is highly dependent on the price, since surge pricing will occur when the demand is high and the supply is low. The key challenge is thus to find the balance between evacuation demand and driver supply. Based on the two-sided market theory, we propose mathematical modeling and analysis strategies that can help balance demand and supply through a pricing mechanism designed for ride-sourcing services in evacuation. A subsidy is considered in the model such that lower-income and vulnerable individuals could benefit from ride-sourcing services. A hypothetical hurricane evacuation scenario in New York City in the case study showed the feasibility of the proposed method and the applicability of subsidies for ride-sourcing services in evacuation. The methodology and results given in this research can provide useful insights for modeling on-demand ride-sourcing for future evacuation planning.


Simulacra ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-55
Author(s):  
Dwi Agustina

This study aims to determine the spiritual empowerment in Sepuh Payaman Cottage, Magelang. Spiritual empowerment is an effort to reduce the anxiety of the elderly about death. In old age humans are often associated with death that is getting closer. Preparing elderly mental health in the face of death is a basic requirement for the community in addition to physical and social health. In this study used a qualitative method approve case study, with the process of collecting data using interviews and observations. In order to analyze the data we used the disengagement theory of social gerontology. The findings in this study that spiritual empowerment was carried out within 24 hours and framed through ritual and social worship. The teaching pattern is emphasized in lecture-listening and learning by doing. The motivation of the elderly and family support is a driving factor for the elderly, while the decline in physical function is a limiting factor. In the pattern of spiritual empowerment, implications are found including, 1) Obtaining inner peace; 2) Getting closer to God; 3) Increasing the faith of the elderly; 4) Able to read Al-Qur’an; 5) Growing humanity; and 6) Establishment of new relations. The findings of this study can be used as an alternative and answer to reduce the level of anxiety in the elderly related to death.


2020 ◽  
pp. 003022282097627
Author(s):  
Sixtus Dane A. Ramos

Death is an important reality that the elderly face. In preparation for death, old people engage in reminiscence. However, the presence of addiction in the elderly may influence this process. The current study examined the life of Burt, a sixty-five year old man with substance use disorder, his reflections on death, and the different types of reminiscence he uses. Using a case study, six themes were uncovered. Burt’s reflections on death revealed his awareness of his death, how he plans to spend his dying days, and his idea of a symbolic death by losing his loved ones. Burt engages in reminiscence patterns that are composed of identity recollections, life milestones, and painful experiences. These themes were examined in order to understand how an elderly person with addiction prepares for his own death. Research limitations, recommendations, and implications in clinical practice and human development research are also discussed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Miriam R. Aczel ◽  
Karen E. Makuch

This case study analyzes the potential impacts of weakening the National Park Service’s (NPS) “9B Regulations” enacted in 1978, which established a federal regulatory framework governing hydrocarbon rights and extraction to protect natural resources within the parks. We focus on potential risks to national parklands resulting from Executive Orders 13771—Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs [1]—and 13783—Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth [2]—and subsequent recent revisions and further deregulation. To establish context, we briefly overview the history of the United States NPS and other relevant federal agencies’ roles and responsibilities in protecting federal lands that have been set aside due to their value as areas of natural beauty or historical or cultural significance [3]. We present a case study of Theodore Roosevelt National Park (TRNP) situated within the Bakken Shale Formation—a lucrative region of oil and gas deposits—to examine potential impacts if areas of TRNP, particularly areas designated as “wilderness,” are opened to resource extraction, or if the development in other areas of the Bakken near or adjacent to the park’s boundaries expands [4]. We have chosen TRNP because of its biodiversity and rich environmental resources and location in the hydrocarbon-rich Bakken Shale. We discuss where federal agencies’ responsibility for the protection of these lands for future generations and their responsibility for oversight of mineral and petroleum resources development by private contractors have the potential for conflict.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-172
Author(s):  
Yun-Jin Shim ◽  
Yong-Su Park ◽  
Rae-Ha Jang ◽  
Young-Jun Yoon ◽  
Sun- Ryoung Kim ◽  
...  

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