scholarly journals Modelling COVID-19 contagion: risk assessment and targeted mitigation policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rama Cont ◽  
Artur Kotlicki ◽  
Renyuan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Local Monitoring ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Epidemic Model ◽  
Contagion Risk ◽  
Vulnerable Subpopulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mitigation Policies

We use a spatial epidemic model with demographic and geographical heterogeneity to study the regional dynamics of COVID-19 across 133 regions in England. Our model emphasizes the role of variability of regional outcomes and heterogeneity across age groups and geographical locations, and provides a framework for assessing the impact of policies targeted towards subpopulations or regions. We define a concept of efficiency for comparative analysis of epidemic control policies and show targeted mitigation policies based on local monitoring to be more efficient than country-level or non-targeted measures. In particular, our results emphasize the importance of shielding vulnerable subpopulations and show that targeted policies based on local monitoring can considerably lower fatality forecasts and, in many cases, prevent the emergence of second waves which may occur under centralized policies.

scholarly journals Modelling COVID-19 contagion: Risk assessment and targeted mitigation policies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rama Cont ◽  
RenYuan Xu ◽  
Artur Kotlicki
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Local Monitoring ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Epidemic Model ◽  
Contagion Risk ◽  
Vulnerable Subpopulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mitigation Policies

We use a spatial epidemic model with demographic and geographic heterogeneity to study the regional dynamics of COVID-19 across 133 regions in England. Our model emphasises the role of variability of regional outcomes and heterogeneity across age groups and geographic locations, and provides a framework for assessing the impact of policies targeted towards sub-populations or regions. We define a concept of efficiency for comparative analysis of epidemic control policies and show targeted mitigation policies based on local monitoring to be more efficient than country-level or non-targeted measures. In particular, our results emphasise the importance of shielding vulnerable subpopulations and show that targeted policies based on local monitoring can considerably lower fatality forecasts and, in many cases, prevent the emergence of second waves which may occur under centralised policies.

The Health of Refugees

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Refugee Health ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
Ethical Challenges ◽  
Displaced Populations ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
The Media ◽  
Multidisciplinary Perspective ◽  
The Impact

There have been significant changes in the numbers, patterns, and circumstances of refugees and in the political landscape to support humanitarianism since the publication of the first edition of this collection. Like the first edition, this volume provides a multidisciplinary perspective on refugee health, tracing the health repercussions on individuals and populations from the drivers of forced mass movements of populations from situations of conflict and other disasters through to the process of resettlement in countries other than their countries of origin. Drawing on the expertise of academics, practitioners, and UN frontline experts, the collection covers three main aspects of refugee health: the concepts, definitions, and context from a human rights, humanitarianism, and social determinants of health perspective; the intersection of vulnerabilities across age groups and settings; and the ethical challenges for practitioners and researchers working with forcibly displaced populations seeking to resettle. The collection concludes with an analysis of the role of the media in shaping our perceptions of refugees and the impact on policy and access to care.

Financial Access of Latin America and Caribbean Firms: What Are the Roles of Institutional, Financial, and Economic Development?

2021 ◽  
pp. 097265272110153
Author(s):  
Lan Khanh Chu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Latin America And Caribbean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role

This article examines the impact of institutional, financial, and economic development on firms’ access to finance in Latin America and Caribbean region. Based on firm- and country-level data from the World Bank databases, we employ an ordered logit model to understand the direct and moderating role of institutional, financial, and economic development in determining firms’ financial obstacles. The results show that older, larger, facing less competition and regulation burden, foreign owned, and affiliated firms report lower obstacles to finance. Second, better macro-fundamentals help to lessen the level of obstacles substantially. Third, the role of institutions in promoting firms’ inclusive finance is quite different to the role of financial development and economic growth. JEL classification: E02; G10; O16; P48

scholarly journals Impact of non-menthol flavours in e-cigarettes on perceptions and use: an updated systematic review

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. e031598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Meernik ◽  
Hannah M Baker ◽  
Sarah D Kowitt ◽  
Leah M Ranney ◽  
Adam O Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Longitudinal Research ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Product Appeal ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesGiven the exponential increase in the use of e-cigarettes among younger age groups and in the growth in research on e-cigarette flavours, we conducted a systematic review examining the impact of non-menthol flavoured e-cigarettes on e-cigarette perceptions and use among youth and adults.DesignPubMed, Embase, PyscINFO and CINAHL were systematically searched for studies published and indexed through March 2018.Eligibility criteriaQuantitative observational and experimental studies that assessed the effect of non-menthol flavours in e-cigarettes on perceptions and use behaviours were included. Specific outcome measures assessed are appeal, reasons for use, risk perceptions, susceptibility, intention to try, initiation, preference, current use, quit intentions and cessation.Data extraction and synthesisThree authors independently extracted data related to the impact of flavours in tobacco products. Data from a previous review were then combined with those from the updated review for final analysis. Results were then grouped and analysed by outcome measure.ResultsThe review included 51 articles for synthesis, including 17 published up to 2016 and an additional 34 published between 2016 and 2018. Results indicate that non-menthol flavours in e-cigarettes decrease harm perceptions (five studies) and increase willingness to try and initiation of e-cigarettes (six studies). Among adults, e-cigarette flavours increase product appeal (seven studies) and are a primary reason many adults use the product (five studies). The role of flavoured e-cigarettes on smoking cessation remains unclear (six studies).ConclusionThis review provides summary data on the role of non-menthol flavours in e-cigarette perceptions and use. Consistent evidence shows that flavours attract both youth and adults to use e-cigarettes. Given the clear findings that such flavours increase product appeal, willingness to try and initiation among youth, banning non-menthol flavours in e-cigarettes may reduce youth e-cigarette use. Longitudinal research is needed to examine any role flavours may play in quit behaviours among adults.

scholarly journals TET2 mutations as a part of DNA dioxygenase deficiency in myelodysplastic syndromes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmelo Gurnari ◽  
Simona Pagliuca ◽  
Yihong Guan ◽  
Vera Adema ◽  
Courtney E Hershberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myelodysplastic Syndromes ◽  
Prognostic Significance ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Dna Demethylation ◽  
Compensatory Mechanisms ◽  
Poor Outcomes ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

Decrease in DNA dioxygease activity generated by TET2 gene family is crucial in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). The general down-regulation of 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5-hmC) argues for a role of DNA demethylation in MDS beyond TET2 mutations, which albeit frequent, do not convey any prognostic significance. We investigated TETs expression to identify factors which can modulate the impact of mutations and thus 5-hmC levels on clinical phenotypes and prognosis of MDS patients. DNA/RNA-sequencing and 5-hmC data were collected from 1,665 patients with MDS and 91 controls. Irrespective of mutations, a significant fraction of MDS patients exhibited lower TET2 expression, while 5-hmC levels were not uniformly decreased. In searching for factors explaining compensatory mechanisms, we discovered that TET3 was up-regulated in MDS and inversely correlated with TET2 expression in wild-type cases. While TET2 was reduced across all age-groups, TET3 levels were increased in a likely feedback mechanism induced by TET2 dysfunction. This inverse relationship of TET2 and TET3 expression also corresponded to the expression of L-2-hydroxyglutarate dehydrogenase, involved in agonist/antagonist substrate metabolism. Importantly, elevated TET3 levels influenced the clinical phenotype of TET2-deficiency whereby the lack of compensation by TET3 (low TET3 expression) was associated with poor outcomes of TET2 mutant carriers.

scholarly journals Risk factors for respiratory Aspergillus fumigatus in German Cystic Fibrosis patients and impact on lung function

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uta Düesberg ◽  
Julia Wosniok ◽  
Lutz Naehrlich ◽  
Patience Eschenhagen ◽  
Carsten Schwarz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cystic Fibrosis ◽  
Lung Function ◽  
Aspergillus Fumigatus ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Lower Lung ◽  
Lung Infections ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Airway inflammation and chronic lung infections in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients are mostly caused by bacteria, e.g. Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA). The role of fungi in the CF lung is still not well elucidated, but evidence for a harmful and complex role is getting stronger. The most common filamentous fungus in CF is Aspergillus fumigatus (AF). Age and continuous antibiotic treatment have been discussed as risk factors for AF colonisation but did not differentiate between transient and persistent AF colonisation. Also, the impact of co-colonisation of PA and AF on lung function is still under investigation. Data from patients with CF registered in the German Cystic Fibrosis Registry database in 2016 and 2017 were retrospectively analysed, involving descriptive and multivariate analysis to assess risk factors for transient or persistent AF colonisation. Age represented an independent risk factor for persistent AF colonisation. Prevalence was low in children less than ten years, highest in the middle age and getting lower in higher age (≥ 50 years). Continuous antibiotic lung treatment was significantly associated with AF prevalence in all age groups. CF patients with chronic PA infection had a lower lung function (FEV1%predicted), which was not influenced by an additional AF colonisation. AF colonisation without chronic PA infection, however, was significantly associated with a lower function, too. Older age up to 49 years and continuous antibiotic use were found to be the main risk factors for AF permanent colonisation. AF might be associated with decrease of lung function if not disguised by chronic PA infection.

scholarly journals The Effect of Fixed-Term Employment on Well-Being: Disentangling the Micro-Mechanisms and the Moderating Role of Social Cohesion

2020 ◽  
Vol 152 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-115
Author(s):  
Sonja Scheuring
Keyword(s):  
Social Cohesion ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Deprivation Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper examines the impact of fixed-term employment on well-being from a cross-national comparative perspective by testing (1) the effect heterogeneity across European countries, (2) to which extent Jahoda’s Latent Deprivation Model provides a sufficient micro-level explanation for the underlying mechanisms and (3) whether the macro-level factor of social cohesion weakens the micro-level impacts. We investigate the effects in both an upwards (permanent employment) and a downwards (unemployment) comparative control group design. Due to the mediating role of social contacts on the micro-level, we assume social cohesion on the country-level to moderate the main effects: A high degree of societal affiliation should substitute the function of social contacts in the work environment of individuals. Using microdata from the European Social Survey (ESS) 2012 for 23 countries and applying multilevel estimation procedures, we find that there is a remarkable variation in the effects across countries. Even though in each country fixed-term employees have a lower subjective well-being compared to permanent ones, the point estimates vary from .17 to 1.19 units. When comparing fixed-term employees to unemployed individuals, the coefficients even range from − .27 to 1.25 units. More specifically, a negative effect indicates that having a fixed-term contract is worse than unemployment in some countries. Moreover, pooled linear regression models reveal that Jahoda’s Latent Deprivation Model explains about three-quarters of the micro-level effect sizes for both directions. Eventually, social cohesion on the country-level diminishes the individual-level well-being differences between fixed-term employees and permanent individuals but not between fixed-term employees and the unemployed.

scholarly journals Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús A. Moreno López ◽  
Beatriz Arregui-Garcĺa ◽  
Piotr Bentkowski ◽  
Livio Bioglio ◽  
Francesco Pinotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
Low Coverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Information

The efficacy of digital contact tracing against COVID-19 epidemic is debated: smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, non-uniform across age groups, with low coverage among elderly, the most vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact-survey and epidemiological information to describe the risk factors for exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R=2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence of ~36%. With R=1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.

scholarly journals Relationship between Citizens’ Health Engagement and Intention to Take the COVID-19 Vaccine in Italy: A Mediation Analysis

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guendalina Graffigna ◽  
Lorenzo Palamenghi ◽  
Stefania Boccia ◽  
Serena Barello
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
General Attitude ◽  
Actual Effectiveness ◽  
To Come ◽  
Educational Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

The actual effectiveness of the still-to-come vaccination against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 might be challenged by vaccine hesitancy, a rather common and known phenomenon whose psychological predictors are, nevertheless, still largely debated. Our study aims at understanding how adult citizens’ health engagement, perceived COVID-19 susceptibility and severity, and general vaccine-related attitudes affect the willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19. To that end, on a sample of Italian citizens, we implemented a path model to test the impact of health engagement on the willingness to vaccinate against SARS-CoV-2, and whether this relationship is direct or mediated by the general attitude towards vaccines and the risk perception. Moreover, we tested the configural and weak invariance of the model across gender and three age groups. Results show that health engagement is positively related to the intention to vaccinate and that this relationship is partially mediated by the general attitude towards vaccines. The model appears invariant across genders and partially invariant across age groups, showing some differences in the role of perceived susceptibility. These findings vouch for the implementation of educational campaigns aimed at sustaining future vaccination programs that also include health engagement promotion.

scholarly journals On the Role of Different Age Groups and Pertussis Vaccines During the 2012 Outbreak in Wisconsin

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Goldstein ◽  
Colin J Worby ◽  
Marc Lipsitch
Keyword(s):  
Protective Effect ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Status ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Status Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background There is limited information on the roles of different age groups in propagating pertussis outbreaks, and on the impact of vaccination on pertussis transmission in the community. Methods The relative roles of different age groups in propagating the 2012 pertussis outbreak in Wisconsin were evaluated using the relative risk (RR) statistic that measures the change in the group’s proportion among all detected cases before vs after the epidemic peak. The impact of vaccination in different age groups against infection (that is potentially different from the protective effect against detectable disease) was evaluated using the odds ratios (ORs), within each age group, for being vaccinated vs undervaccinated before vs after the outbreak’s peak. Results The RR statistic suggests that children aged 13–14 years played the largest relative role during the outbreak’s ascent (with estimates consistent across the 3 regions in Wisconsin that were studied), followed by children aged 7–8, 9–10, and 11–12 years. Young children and older teenagers and adults played more limited relative roles during the outbreak. Results of the vaccination status analysis for the fifth dose of DTaP (for children aged 7–8 years: OR, 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23–0.86; for children aged 9–10 years: OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27–0.95); and for Tdap for children aged 13–14 years (OR, 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16–0.89) are consistent with protective effect against infection. Conclusions While our epidemiological findings for the fifth dose of DTaP and for Tdap are consistent with protective effect against infection, further studies, including those estimating vaccine effectiveness against infection/transmission to others particularly for pertussis vaccines for adolescents, are needed to evaluate the impact of vaccination on the spread of pertussis in the community.

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