scholarly journals Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 276 (1661) ◽  
pp. 1415-1420 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J Anderson ◽  
H.R Akçakaya ◽  
M.B Araújo ◽  
D.A Fordham ◽  
E Martinez-Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Relative Sensitivity ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Metapopulation Dynamics ◽  
Range Limit ◽  
Range Margin ◽  
Dispersive Estimate ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Conservation Concern

We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower , rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.

scholarly journals A signature of dynamic biogeography: enclaves indicate past species replacement

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1868) ◽  
pp. 20172014 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Wielstra ◽  
T. Burke ◽  
R. K. Butlin ◽  
J. W. Arntzen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Turnover ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
The Other ◽  
Species Replacement ◽  
Distribution Dynamics ◽  
Characteristic Distribution ◽  
The Past ◽  
Invading Species ◽  
Conservation Concern

Understanding how species have replaced each other in the past is important to predicting future species turnover. While past species replacement is difficult to detect after the fact, the process may be inferred from present-day distribution patterns. Species with abutting ranges sometimes show a characteristic distribution pattern, where a section of one species range is enveloped by that of the other. Such an enclave could indicate past species replacement: when a species is partly supplanted by a competitor, but a population endures locally while the invading species moves around and past it, an enclave forms. If the two species hybridize and backcross, the receding species is predicted to leave genetic traces within the expanding one under a scenario of species replacement. By screening dozens of genes in hybridizing crested newts, we uncover genetic remnants of the ancestral species, now inhabiting an enclave, in the range of the surrounding invading species. This independent genetic evidence supports the past distribution dynamics we predicted from the enclave. We suggest that enclaves provide a valuable tool in understanding historical species replacement, which is important because a major conservation concern arising from anthropogenic climate change is increased species replacement in the future.

scholarly journals Early mortality and freshwater forage fish recruitment: nonnative alewife and native rainbow smelt interactions in Lake Champlain

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 806-814
Author(s):  
Paul W. Simonin ◽  
Lars G. Rudstam ◽  
Patrick J. Sullivan ◽  
Donna L. Parrish ◽  
Bernard Pientka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Fish Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Lake Champlain ◽  
Species Introduction ◽  
Rainbow Smelt ◽  
Fish Recruitment

We studied the consequences of a nonnative species introduction and changes in temperature on early mortality and recruitment of native rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and nonnative alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in Lake Champlain using a simulation model. Distribution patterns of adults and young-of-the-year (YOY) fish were predicted using a model based on observed distribution of different age groups as a function of temperature and light profiles simulated on a daily basis. Mortality rates averaged over the growing season were calculated as a function of fish densities and overlap between adults and YOY. Survival of YOY rainbow smelt and alewife depended on which predator was most abundant. Rainbow smelt YOY mortality rates are highest when rainbow smelt adults are abundant, and alewife YOY mortality rates are highest when alewife adults are abundant, potentially allowing coexistence. August and September mortality rates were higher in the climate change scenario because of increased overlap of adults and YOY of both species. These results indicate that accounting for spatiotemporal fish distribution patterns can be important when forecasting the interacting effects of climate change and aquatic invasive species on fish recruitment.

Predicting future distribution patterns of Jatropha gossypiifolia L. in South Africa in response to climate change

2022 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 417-425
Author(s):  
Moleseng Claude Moshobane ◽  
Bester Tawona Mudereri ◽  
Mukundi Mukundamago ◽  
Tavengwa Chitata
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Jatropha Gossypiifolia

scholarly journals Potential impacts of climate change on Mongolia’s plant protection status quo

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (02) ◽  
pp. 26-32
Author(s):  
Batkhuyag B ◽  
Batnaran Kh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Plant Protection ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Agricultural Pests ◽  
Migratory Locust ◽  
Colorado Beetle ◽  
Wide Range

Mongolia’s 2030 Sustainable Development Vision set a goal to be a self-sufficient in grain, potatoes and vegetables by 2030. However, Mongolia’s pastoral animal husbandry and rain-fed agriculture are extremely sensitive to climate change. The Asian migratory locust is considered as the most harmful grasshopper in the world. Until 1970th, these locust’s distribution areas in Mongolia were confined to oasis of Gobi deserts. A study on Asian migratory locust in Russia predicts distribution and formation of new permanent habitats of the locust in Chita oblast, Krasnoyarsk territory and Republic of Tyva. The Colorado beetle is one of the world’s most infamous invasive species due to its rapid adaptation to a wide range of ecological conditions and ability to disperse long distances. The climate modeling of Colorado beetle showed that with current trend, the beetle will expand its distribution into the most eastern and north-eastern regions of the Russian Federation. In China, the Colorado beetle was first detected in Xinjiang in 1993 and subsequently spread eastward. In China the Colorado beetle is currently expanding its areas at rate of 25 kms year (12-45 kms/year). Both species’ distribution patterns in neighboring countries show eventual establishment of permanent habitats around Mongolia. Their invasion to Mongolia will threaten country’s food security due to direct destruction of cereal and potato crops, and increased application of highly toxic pesticides. In light of these threats, Mongolia should start taking serious preventive measures by increasing surveillance and dedicated risk assessment studies for potential agricultural pests and diseases.

scholarly journals Editorial – Contentious Mobilities/Canadian Mobilities

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 257-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Sodero ◽  
Nicholas Scott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Canadian Journal ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Life And Death

This special issue of Canadian Journal of Sociology on ‘Contentious Mobilities’ showcases Canadian scholarship that investigates mobilities in the context of unequal power relations. Mobilities become contentious when they confront the systematic exclusion of others, advance unconventional mobile practices and defy or destabilize existing power relations. Increasingly, mobilities are contentious in relation to rapidly changing economies, societies and environments. This special issue stages an overdue encounter between the mobilities paradigm and research on sociopolitical contention. Simultaneously, this special issue addresses an empirical gap, featuring Canada as a prolific and influential site for leading-edge research. Five key themes emerge amongst the diverse papers in this issue: life and death, employment-related mobility, intersectionality/in(visibility), governance, and automobility. Further, we identify five potential topics for Canadian mobilities, including climate change, disaster, technology and travel, the good city and methods.

Uncertainties in coupled species distribution-metapopulation dynamics models for risk assessments under climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 541-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilona R. Naujokaitis-Lewis ◽  
Janelle M. R. Curtis ◽  
Lutz Tischendorf ◽  
Debbie Badzinski ◽  
Kathryn Lindsay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Metapopulation Dynamics ◽  
Dynamics Models

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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