scholarly journals Eco-evolutionary feedbacks, adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1610) ◽  
pp. 20120081 ◽  
Author(s):  
Regis Ferriere ◽  
Stéphane Legendre
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Adaptive Dynamics ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Adaptive Process ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
The Face ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Evolutionary Suicide ◽  
Dynamics Models

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps.

Population viability analysis on a native Danish cattle breed

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 105-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten Hertz ◽  
Iben Ravnborg Jensen ◽  
Laura Østergaard Jensen ◽  
Iben Vejrum Nielsen ◽  
Jacob Winde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bos Taurus ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Cattle Breed ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Probability Of Survival ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Breeding Pool

SummaryMany domestic breeds face challenges concerning genetic variability, because of their small population sizes along with a high risk of inbreeding. Therefore, it is important to obtain knowledge on their extinction risk, along with the possible benefits of certain breeding strategies. Since many domestic breeds face the same problems, results from such studies can be applied across breeds and species. Here a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was implemented to simulate the future probability of extinction for a population of the endangered Danish Jutland cattle (Bos taurus), based on the software Vortex. A PVA evaluates the extinction risk of a population by including threats and demographic values. According to the results from the PVA the population will go extinct after 122 years with the current management. Four scenarios were created to investigate which changes in the breeding scheme would have the largest effect on the survival probabilities, including Scenario 1: More females in the breeding pool, scenario 2: More males in the breeding pool, scenario 3: Increased carrying capacity, and scenario 4: Supplementing males to the population through artificial insemination using semen from bulls used in the populations in past generations. All scenarios showed a positive effect on the population's probability of survival, and with a combination of the different scenarios, the population size seems to be stabilized.

scholarly journals Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1793) ◽  
pp. 20141574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Amano ◽  
Brody Sandel ◽  
Heidi Eager ◽  
Edouard Bulteau ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Socioeconomic Drivers ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
The Tropics

Many of the world's languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk—represented by small range and speaker population sizes and rapid declines in the number of speakers—and identify the underlying environmental and socioeconomic drivers. We show that both small range and speaker population sizes are associated with rapid declines in speaker numbers, causing 25% of existing languages to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines. However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth.

scholarly journals The mathematics of extinction across scales: from populations to the biosphere

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Carlson ◽  
Kevin Burgio ◽  
Tad Dallas ◽  
Wayne Getz
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Occupancy Models ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Sixth Mass Extinction ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
Species Area ◽  
Using Data

The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species area relationship. We also consider two major extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment, and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide a new example using data on Spix's macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii), the "rarest bird in the world," to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.

scholarly journals The mathematics of extinction across scales: from populations to the biosphere

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Carlson ◽  
Kevin Burgio ◽  
Tad Dallas ◽  
Wayne Getz
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Occupancy Models ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Sixth Mass Extinction ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
Species Area ◽  
Using Data

The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species area relationship. We also consider two major extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment, and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide an example using data on Spix's macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii), the "rarest bird in the world," to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.

scholarly journals Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaye ◽  
Matt A Bahm ◽  
Andrea S Thorpe ◽  
Erin C Gray ◽  
Ian Pfingsten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Population Extinction ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Potential Signal

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, climate change, small population sizes, and long gaps between surveys may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size was negatively associated with extinction, while elevation and time between observations interacted such that low elevation populations were most vulnerable to extinction, but only over larger time spans. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 31%-56% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high climate vulnerability.

scholarly journals The Last Two Remaining Populations of the Critically Endangered Estuarine Pipefish Are Inbred and Not Genetically Distinct

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven-Erick Weiss ◽  
Arsalan Emami-Khoyi ◽  
Horst Kaiser ◽  
Paul D. Cowley ◽  
Nicola C. James ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Genome Wide Data ◽  
Significant Genetic Structure ◽  
Population Sizes

The critically endangered estuarine pipefish, Syngnathus watermeyeri, is one of Africa’s rarest fish species and currently faces a significant risk of extinction. A combination of anthropogenic and natural factors threaten submerged macrophyte beds in the two South African estuaries (Bushmans and Kariega) in which the species’ only two known remaining populations reside. Here, we genotyped 34 pipefish from both populations using genome-wide data to determine whether the two estuaries harbour distinct genetic diversity, such that translocating individuals between them might improve the genetic health of both. Our results show that both populations are highly inbred, and no statistically significant genetic structure was found between them. Moreover, individuals both within and between estuaries were very closely related to each other. These results indicate that the remaining populations of the estuarine pipefish suffer from the adverse genetic effects of small population sizes. Even though recent surveys have estimated population sizes in the order of thousands of individuals, these may fluctuate considerably. Although the translocation of genetically similar individuals between habitats will not increase local genetic diversity, the creation of additional populations across the species’ historical range may be a suitable conservation strategy to prevent further loss of genetic diversity, and to minimise the overall extinction risk posed by environmental stochasticity.

Conservation translocation – an increasingly viable option for managing threatened plant species

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (7) ◽  
pp. 501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi C. Zimmer ◽  
Tony D. Auld ◽  
Peter Cuneo ◽  
Catherine A. Offord ◽  
Lucy E. Commander
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Threatened Plants ◽  
Threatened Plant ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Threatened Plant Species ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Extinction Risk Assessment

Translocation is the establishment and augmentation of plant populations using ex situ material, and can reduce extinction risk. Historically, translocation has been considered to be high cost and high risk, but today, translocation is increasingly recognised as a necessary option for managing many threatened plant species. To examine the viability of translocation as a management action, we analysed the frequency of it being a recommended management action, its estimated cost over time, and its perceived likelihood of success as compared with other management actions. We did this using the 368 threatened plant species in the New South Wales state register of threatened species management strategies (the Saving our Species (SOS) database). Translocation was recommended as a management action for 30% of threatened plants (112 species), mostly in response to demographic threats (i.e. threats affecting species with small population sizes/restricted distributions, for example, environmental and demographic stochasticity or low genetic diversity). The estimated cost of translocation per species was similar to other common management actions. However, expert elicitation data (in the SoS database) indicated that translocation was less certain of a beneficial outcome, compared with almost all other management actions. Based on these findings, we create a decision framework, which uses the principles of extinction risk assessment to assist conservation managers in determining when translocation is most likely to be beneficial. We suggest that the use of translocation to mitigate the risk of extinction associated with small population sizes/restricted ranges is supported by the principles of extinction risk assessment. With a growing knowledge base, and costs comparable to other management actions, translocation is becoming an increasingly viable option for the conservation management of threatened plants, provided best practice guidelines are followed.

scholarly journals Fragmentation helps evolutionary rescue in highly connected habitats

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Tomasini ◽  
Stephan Peischl
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Gene Flow ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Adaptive Introgression ◽  
Spatially Structured Populations ◽  
Species Survival ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
The Face ◽  
Population Sizes

AbstractGenetic variation and population sizes are critical factors for successful adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Gene flow between sub-populations is a potent mechanism to provide such variation and can hence facilitate adaption, for instance by increasing genetic variation or via adaptive introgression. On the other hand, if gene flow between different habitats is too strong, locally beneficial alleles may not be able to establish permanently. In the context of evolutionary rescue, intermediate levels of gene flow are therefore often optimal for maximizing a species chance for survival in meta-populations without spatial structure. To which extent and under which conditions gene flow facilitates or hinders evolutionary rescue in spatially structured populations remains unresolved. We address this question and show that detrimental effects of gene flow can become negligible in spatially structured populations subject to a gradual deterioration of environmental conditions. If the number of sub-populations is sufficiently large, we find a positive relationship between the amount of gene flow and the survival chance of the population. A counter-intuitive conclusion is that increased fragmentation can facilitate species survival in the face of severe environmental change if migration is common but limited to neighboring sub-populations.

scholarly journals The mathematics of extinction across scales: from populations to the biosphere

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Carlson ◽  
Kevin Burgio ◽  
Tad Dallas ◽  
Wayne Getz
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Occupancy Models ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Sixth Mass Extinction ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
Species Area ◽  
Using Data

The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species area relationship. We also consider two major extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment, and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide an example using data on Spix's macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii), the "rarest bird in the world," to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.

Estimating the exposure of carnivorous plants to rapid climatic change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Aaron M. Ellison
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Dispersal Limitation ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Carnivorous Plant ◽  
Carnivorous Plants ◽  
Habitat Specialization ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climatic change likely will exacerbate current threats to carnivorous plants. However, estimating the severity of climatic change is challenged by the unique ecology of carnivorous plants, including habitat specialization, dispersal limitation, small ranges, and small population sizes. We discuss and apply methods for modeling species distributions to overcome these challenges and quantify the vulnerability of carnivorous plants to rapid climatic change. Results suggest that climatic change will reduce habitat suitability for most carnivorous plants. Models also project increases in habitat suitability for many species, but the extent to which these increases may offset habitat losses will depend on whether individuals can disperse to and establish in newly suitable habitats outside of their current distribution. Reducing existing stressors and protecting habitats where numerous carnivorous plant species occur may ameliorate impacts of climatic change on this unique group of plants.

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