scholarly journals Expertly validated models suggest responses to climate change are related to species traits: a phylogenetically-controlled analysis of the Order Lagomorpha

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Leach ◽  
Ruth Kelly ◽  
Alison Cameron ◽  
W.Ian Montgomery ◽  
Neil Reid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Expert Evaluation ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Current Climate

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian Order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current distribution models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ through our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). We then used phylogenetically-controlled regressions to test whether species traits were correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change will impact more than two-thirds of the Lagomorpha, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Including Variability across Climate Change Projections in Assessing Impacts on Water Resources in an Intensively Managed Landscape

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Bangshuai Han ◽  
Shawn G. Benner ◽  
Alejandro N. Flores
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Coupled Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Irrigation Amount ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Intensively Managed

：In intensively managed watersheds, water scarcity is a product of interactions between complex biophysical processes and human activities. Understanding how intensively managed watersheds respond to climate change requires modeling these coupled processes. One challenge in assessing the response of these watersheds to climate change lies in adequately capturing the trends and variability of future climates. Here we combine a stochastic weather generator together with future projections of climate change to efficiently create a large ensemble of daily weather for three climate scenarios, reflecting recent past and two future climate scenarios. With a previously developed model that captures rainfall-runoff processes and the redistribution of water according to declared water rights, we use these large ensembles to evaluate how future climate change may impact satisfied and unsatisfied irrigation throughout the study area, the Treasure Valley in Southwest Idaho, USA. The numerical experiments quantify the changing rate of allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amount and reveal that the projected temperature increase more significantly influences allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amounts than precipitation changes. The scenarios identify spatially distinct regions in the study area that are at greater risk of the occurrence of unsatisfied irrigation. This study demonstrates how combining stochastic weather generators and future climate projections can support efforts to assess future risks of negative water resource outcomes. It also allows identification of regions in the study area that may be less suitable for irrigated agriculture in future decades, potentially benefiting planners and managers.

scholarly journals A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 999-1012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
Empirical Relationships ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Emergent Constraints

Abstract. One of the approaches to constrain uncertainty in climate models is the identification of emergent constraints. These are physically explainable empirical relationships between a particular simulated characteristic of the current climate and future climate change from an ensemble of climate models, which can be exploited using current observations. In this paper, we develop a theory to understand the appearance of such emergent constraints. Based on this theory, we also propose a classification for emergent constraints, and applications are shown for several idealized climate models.

scholarly journals A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
Empirical Relationships ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Emergent Constraints

Abstract. One of the approaches to constrain uncertainty in climate models is the identification of emergent constraints. These are physically explainable empirical relationships between a particular simulated characteristic of the current climate versus future climate change from an ensemble of climate models, which can be exploited using current observations. In this paper, we develop a theory to understand the appearance of such emergent constraints. Based on this theory, we also propose a classification for emergent constraints and applications are shown for several idealized climate models.

scholarly journals Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teng Long ◽  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Nicholas Pilfold ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Tingfa Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Range

Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D. involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

scholarly journals Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Jesse A. Tabor ◽  
Jonathan B. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Invasive Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai’i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species.

scholarly journals A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1584-1594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Babcock Hollowed ◽  
Nicholas A. Bond ◽  
Thomas K. Wilderbuer ◽  
William T. Stockhausen ◽  
Z. Teresa A'mar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Fish And Shellfish ◽  
The Bering Sea

AbstractHollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., and Schirripa, M. J. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584–1594. A framework is outlined for a unified approach to forecasting the implications of climate change on production of marine fish. The framework involves five steps: (i) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success, growth, and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations, (ii) assessment of the feasibility of downscaling implications of climate scenarios derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for regional ecosystems to select and estimate relevant environmental variables, (iii) evaluation of climate model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of study, (iv) extraction of environmental variables from climate scenarios and incorporation into projection models for fish and shellfish, and (v) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production under a changing ecosystem. This framework was applied to forecast summer sea surface temperature in the Bering Sea from 2001 to 2050. The mean summer surface temperature was predicted to increase by 2°C by 2050. The forecasting framework was also used to estimate the effects of climate change on production of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) through projected changes in cross-shelf transport of larvae in the Bering Sea. Results suggest that climate change will lead to a modest increase in the production of strong year classes of northern rock sole.

scholarly journals Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2825
Author(s):  
Xupu Li ◽  
Liwei Zhang ◽  
Patrick J. O’Connor ◽  
Junping Yan ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Related Services ◽  
Hanjiang River

Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

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