scholarly journals Contacts in context: large-scale setting-specific social mixing matrices from the BBC Pandemic project

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petra Klepac ◽  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Andrew JK Conlan ◽  
Stephen Kissler ◽  
Maria L Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
And Control

AbstractSocial mixing patterns are crucial in driving transmission of infectious diseases and informing public health interventions to contain their spread. Age-specific social mixing is often inferred from surveys of self-recorded contacts which by design often have a very limited number of participants. In addition, such surveys are rare, so public health interventions are often evaluated by considering only one such study. Here we report detailed population contact patterns for United Kingdom based self-reported contact data from over 36,000 volunteers that participated in the massive citizen science project BBC Pandemic. The amount of data collected allows us generate fine-scale age-specific population contact matrices by context (home, work, school, other) and type (conversational or physical) of contact that took place. These matrices are highly relevant for informing prevention and control of new outbreaks, and evaluating strategies that reduce the amount of mixing in the population (such as school closures, social distancing, or working from home). In addition, they finally provide the possibility to use multiple sources of social mixing data to evaluate the uncertainty that stems from social mixing when designing public health interventions.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Control: Can Germany Learn From China?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olaf Müller ◽  
Guangyu Lu ◽  
Albrecht Jahn ◽  
Oliver Razum
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
Psychosocial Costs ◽  
Similar Stage

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak started in China in December 2019 and has developed into a pandemic. Using mandatory large-scale public health interventions including a lockdown with locally varying intensity and duration, China has been successful in controlling the epidemic at an early stage. The epicentre of the pandemic has since shifted to Europe and The Americas. In certain cities and regions, health systems became overwhelmed by high numbers of cases and deaths, whereas other regions continue to experience low incidence rates. Still, lockdowns were usually implemented country-wide, albeit with differing intensities between countries. Compared to its neighbours, Germany has managed to keep the epidemic relatively well under control, in spite of a lockdown that was only partial. In analogy to many countries at a similar stage, Germany is now under increasing pressure to further relax lockdown measures to limit economic and psychosocial costs. However, if this is done too rapidly, Germany risks facing tens of thousands more severe cases of COVID-19 and deaths in the coming months. Hence, it could again follow China’s example and relax measures according to local incidence, based on intensive testing.

scholarly journals Tensions between research and public health: modelling the risks and benefits of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine field trials versus human infection challenge studies.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George S Heriot ◽  
Euzebiusz Jamrozik ◽  
Michael J Selgelid
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Post Trial

Background: Human infection challenge studies (HICS) with SARS-CoV-2 are under consideration as a way of accelerating vaccine development. We evaluate potential vaccine research strategies under a range of epidemic conditions determined, in part, by the intensity of public health interventions. Methods: We constructed a compartmental epidemiological model incorporating public health interventions, vaccine efficacy trials and a post-trial population vaccination campaign. The model was used to estimate the duration and benefits of large-scale field trials in comparison with HICS accompanied by an expanded safety trial, and to assess the marginal risk faced by HICS participants. Results: Field trials may demonstrate vaccine efficacy more rapidly than a HICS strategy under epidemic conditions consistent with moderate mitigation policies. A HICS strategy is the only feasible option for testing vaccine efficacy under epidemic suppression, and maximises the benefits of post-trial vaccination. Less successful or absent mitigation results in minimal or no benefit from post-trial vaccination, irrespective of trial design. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 HICS are the optimal method of vaccine testing for populations maintained under epidemic suppression, where vaccination offers the greatest benefits to the local population.

scholarly journals A Net Benefit Approach for the Optimal Allocation of a COVID-19 Vaccine

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin Kirwin ◽  
Ellen Rafferty ◽  
Kate Harback ◽  
Jeff Round ◽  
Christopher McCabe
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Monetary Benefit ◽  
Net Monetary Benefit ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a severe, novel virus that has spread globally. The implementation of a combination of public health interventions is required to reduce viral spread and avoid overwhelming acute care systems. Once available, an effective vaccination will further mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, decision makers will initially need to prioritise access to limited vaccine stockpiles as these will be insufficient to vaccine the whole population.The aim of this study is to identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies defined by age and risk target groups, coverage, effectiveness, and cost of vaccine, within a dynamic context where other public health responses and population behaviour change. In this study we use an epidemiological model of COVID-19 that has been enhanced to produce expected costs and Quality Adjusted Life Year results as well as total cases, hospitalisations, deaths, and net monetary benefit. We use the model to simulate hypothetical scenarios where vaccine is allocated beginning on October 15, 2020 with vaccine assumptions ranging from moderately optimistic to ‘worst-case scenario’. Net monetary benefit is used as the objective for optimisation.In a scenario with a sterilizing vaccine that is 80% effective, a stockpile sufficient for 40% population coverage, and prioritisation of those over the age of 60 at high risk of poor outcomes, active cases are reduced by 29.2% and net monetary benefit increased by $297 million dollars, relative to an identical scenario with no vaccine. The relative impact of prioritisation strategies varies greatly depending on concurrent public health interventions, for example, polices such as school closures and senior contact reductions have similar impacts on incremental net monetary benefit when there is no prioritisation given to any age or risk group (147 vs. 120 million, respectively), but when older and high risk groups are given priority, the benefit of school closures is much larger than reducing contacts for seniors (iNB 122 vs. 79 million, respectively). Results demonstrated that rank ordering of different prioritisation options varied greatly by prioritisation criteria, with different vaccine effectiveness and coverage, and by concurrently implemented policies.The results of this paper have three key policy implications: (i) that optimal vaccine allocation will depend on the public health policies, and human behaviours in place at the time of allocation; (ii) the outcomes of vaccine allocation policies can be greatly supported with interventions targeting contact reduction in critical sub-populations; and (iii) the identification of the optimal strategy depends on which outcomes are prioritised.

scholarly journals Dynamic Public Health Interventions Consistent With the Development of COVID-19 Epidemic: The Targeted Prevention and Control Guidelines in Mainland, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinlei Miao ◽  
Zhiyuan Wu ◽  
Chen Qiao ◽  
Mengmeng Liu ◽  
Zhiwei Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Dynamic Characteristics ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Preventive Strategy ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Three Phases

Abstract Background: This study aims to describe the dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmission and the public health interventions in three phases in mainland, China.Methods: The number of daily reported new confirmed cases, severe cases and asymptomatic infected cases from Jan 10 to Jul 10 was analyzed. We calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt) to reflect the dynamic characteristics of epidemic transmission and intervention effect. According to the overall guidelines for prevention and control, we divided the past six months into three phases and summarized the features of main public health interventions in each phase.Results: The daily confirmed cases and severe cases of COVID-19 mainly concentrated in the first phase and the maximum Rt reached 10.75 (95%CI: 10.26-11.24). With the society-wide efforts and joint prevention and control strategy, Rt began to decline below 1.0 from Feb 19. In the second phase, the occurrence of imported infected cases caused small fluctuations. The preventive strategy, preventing both imported cases and local spread of epidemic, was mainly taken. In the third phase, the government adopted policies to prevent imported cases and domestic re-infections, responding to the regular epidemic prevention demands. Conclusion: Social isolation, wearing masks, digital management based on community and area hierarchical control were effective public health interventions in consistent with the development of COVID-19 epidemic. The targeted dynamic interventions in different phases could provide reference for other countries and regions to deal with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Reflections from COVID-19 Pandemic: Contact Diary for Assessing Social Contact Patterns in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 340-341
Author(s):  
Niraj Shrestha ◽  
Achyut Raj Pandey ◽  
Mirak Raj Angdembe
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Contact Pattern ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Contact Patterns

Management of COVID-19 in Nepal will certainly benefit from the experiences of other countries. However, they are less likely to be suitable for Nepal both in terms of context and resource availability. Social contact pattern studies have shown that understanding the nature of human-to-human contacts can help describe the dynamics of infectious disease transmission. The findings of such studies will help the country prepare itself for future outbreaks, inform mathematically modelling and public health interventions that match domestic capabilities. Methods such as self-reported contact diary can be used to conduct such studies following a feasibility study. Keywords: Contact diary;COVID-19; disease transmission; social contact pattern.

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