Shielding individuals at high risk of COVID-19: a micro-simulation study

Background One of the proposed interventions for mitigating COVID-19 epidemics, particularly in low-income and crisis-affected settings, is to physically isolate individuals known to be at high risk of severe disease and death due to age or co-morbidities. This intervention, known as 'shielding', could be implemented in various ways. If shielded people are grouped together in residences and isolation is imperfect, any introduction of infections within the shielding group could cause substantial mortality and thus negate the intervention's benefits. We explored the effectiveness of shielding under various modalities of implementation and considered mitigation measures to reduce its possible harms. Methods We used an individual-based mathematical model to simulate the evolution of a COVID-19 epidemic in a population of which a fraction above a given age cut-off are relocated to shielding residences, in which they have variable levels of contacts with their original household, the outside world and fellow shielding residents. We set our simulation with the context of an internally displaced persons' camp in Somaliland, for which we had recently collected data on household demographics and social mixing patterns. We compared an unmitigated epidemic with a shielding intervention accompanied by various measures to reduce the risk of virus introduction and spread within the shielding residences. We did sensitivity analyses to explore parameters such as residence size, reduction in contacts, basic reproduction number, and prior immunity in the population. Results Shielded residences are likely to be breached with infection during the outbreak. Nonetheless, shielding can be effective in preventing COVID-19 infections in the shielded population. The effectiveness of shielding is mostly affected by the size of the shielded residence, and by the degree by which contacts between shielded and unshielded individuals are reduced. Reductions in contacts between shielded individuals could further increase the effectiveness of shielding, but is only effective in larger shielded residences. Large shielded residences increase the risk of infection, unless very large reductions in contacts can be achieved. In epidemics with a lower reproduction number, the effectiveness of shielding could be negative effectiveness. Discussion Shielding could be an effective method to protect the most at-risk individuals. It should be considered where other measures cannot easily be implemented, but with attention to the epidemiological situation. Shielding should only be implemented through small to medium-sized shielding residences, with appropriate mitigation measures such as reduced contact intensity between shielded individuals and self-isolation of cases to prevent subsequent spread.

Social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact in urban Blantyre, Malawi.

Introduction: Understanding human mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread through close contact is vital for modelling transmission dynamics and optimisation of disease control strategies. Mixing patterns in low-income countries like Malawi are not well understood. Methodology: We conducted a social mixing survey in urban Blantyre, Malawi between April and July 2021 (between the 2nd and 3rd wave of COVID-19 infections). Participants living in densely-populated neighbourhoods were randomly sampled and, if they consented, reported their physical and non-physical contacts within and outside homes lasting at least 5 minutes during the previous day. Age-specific mixing rates were calculated, and a negative binomial mixed effects model was used to estimate determinants of contact behaviour. Results: Of 1,201 individuals enrolled, 702 (58.5%) were female, the median age was 15 years (interquartile range [IQR] 5-32) and 127 (10.6%) were HIV-positive. On average, participants reported 10.3 contacts per day (range: 1-25). Mixing patterns were highly age-assortative, particularly those within the community and with skin-to-skin contact. Adults aged 20-49y reported the most contacts (median:11, IQR: 8-15) of all age groups; 38% (95%CI: 16-63) more than infants (median: 8, IQR: 5-10), who had the least contacts. Household contact frequency increased by 3% (95%CI 2-5) per additional household member. Unemployed participants had 15% (95%CI: 9-21) fewer contacts than other adults. Among long range (>30 meters away from home) contacts, secondary school children had the largest median contact distance from home (257m, IQR 78-761). HIV-positive status in adults >18 years-old was not associated with increased contact patterns (1%, 95%CI -9-12). During this period of relatively low COVID-19 incidence in Malawi, 301 (25.1%) individuals stated that they had limited their contact with others due to COVID-19 precautions; however, their reported contacts were not fewer (8%, 95%CI 1-13). Conclusion: In urban Malawi, contact rates, are high and age-assortative, with little behavioural change due to either HIV-status or COVID-19 circulation. This highlights the limits of contact-restriction-based mitigation strategies in such settings and the need for pandemic preparedness to better understand how contact reductions can be enabled and motivated. Keywords: Social contacts, Transmission, Mixing data, Infectious disease, Malawi, Africa

Predicting regional COVID-19 hospital admissions in Sweden using mobility data

The transmission of COVID-19 is dependent on social mixing, the basic rate of which varies with sociodemographic, cultural, and geographic factors. Alterations in social mixing and subsequent changes in transmission dynamics eventually affect hospital admissions. We employ these observations to model and predict regional hospital admissions in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use an SEIR-model for each region in Sweden in which the social mixing is assumed to depend on mobility data from public transport utilisation and locations for mobile phone usage. The results show that the model could capture the timing of the first and beginning of the second wave of the pandemic 3 weeks in advance without any additional assumptions about seasonality. Further, we show that for two major regions of Sweden, models with public transport data outperform models using mobile phone usage. We conclude that a model based on routinely collected mobility data makes it possible to predict future hospital admissions for COVID-19 3 weeks in advance.

Theory-Based Roadmap for Assessing Sustainability in the Collaborative Economy

This study aims to investigate the current state of sustainability for the collaborative economy (CE). By utilizing the triple bottom line as a founding conceptual framework, the study summarizes and discusses the sustainability of the CE from three dimensions: environment, economy, and society. The study further proposes some targeted measures and suggestions to measure the level of sustainability of the CE and CE platforms. The result shows that the CE has partially fulfilled some of its initial promises pertaining to sustainability, such as creating new job opportunities, economic growth, the efficient use of space and physical resources, as well as social mixing. However, the current sustainability benefits remain much smaller than some claim and hope for. Therefore, governments, platforms, and the public should work together to solve current challenges pertaining to the CE to tap its sustainability potential.

Association between tuberculosis in men and social network structure in Kampala, Uganda

Background Globally, tuberculosis disease (TB) is more common among males than females. Recent research proposes that differences in social mixing by sex could alter infection patterns in TB. We examine evidence for two mechanisms by which social-mixing could increase men’s contact rates with TB cases. First, men could be positioned in social networks such that they contact more people or social groups. Second, preferential mixing by sex could prime men to have more exposure to TB cases. Methods We compared the networks of male and female TB cases and healthy matched controls living in Kampala, Uganda. Specifically, we estimated their positions in social networks (network distance to TB cases, degree, betweenness, and closeness) and assortativity patterns (mixing with adult men, women, and children inside and outside the household). Results The observed network consisted of 11,840 individuals. There were few differences in estimates of node position by sex. We found distinct mixing patterns by sex and TB disease status including that TB cases have proportionally more adult male contacts and fewer contacts with children. Conclusions This analysis used a network approach to study how social mixing patterns are associated with TB disease. Understanding these mechanisms may have implications for designing targeted intervention strategies in high-burden populations.

COVID-19 attack ratio among children critically depends on the time to removal and activity levels

The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on modified age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0-11 years) in Ontario, Canada when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to achieve herd immunity among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity with additional physical distancing measures (hence effective herd immunity). We describe the relationship between this attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate, while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We further illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the Canadian population. The clinical attack ratio, the number of symptomatic infections over the total population can be informed from the attack ratio, and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of higher vaccine coverage in the vaccine eligible population, reduced social mixing among children, and rapid testing and isolation.

Social contacts and other risk factors for respiratory infections among internally displaced people in Somaliland

Background Populations affected by humanitarian crises experience high burdens of acute respiratory infections (ARI), potentially driven by risk factors for severe disease such as poor nutrition and underlying conditions, and risk factors that may increase transmission such as overcrowding and the possibility of high social mixing. However, little is known about social mixing patterns in these populations. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional social contact survey among internally displaced people (IDP) living in Digaale, a permanent IDP camp in Somaliland. We included questions on household demographics, shelter quality, crowding, travel frequency, health status, and recent diagnosis of pneumonia, and assessed anthropometric status in children. We calculated age-standardised social contact matrices to assess population mixing, and conducted regression analysis on risk factors for recent self-reported pneumonia. Results We found crowded households with high proportions of recent self-reported pneumonia (46% in children). 20% of children younger than five are stunted, and crude death rates are high in all age groups. ARI risk factors are common, but we did not find any significant associations with self-reported pneumonia. Participants reported around 10 direct contacts per day. Social contact patterns are assortative by age, and physical contact rates are very high (78%). Conclusions ARI risk factors are very common in this population, while the large degree of contacts that involve physical touch could further increase transmission. Such IDP settings potentially present a perfect storm of risk factors for ARIs and their transmission, and innovative approaches to address such risks are urgently needed.