A simulation-based procedure to estimate base rates from Covid-19 antibody test results I: Deterministic test reliabilities

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.1101/2020.04.28.20075036 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Reinoud Joosten ◽

Abhishta Abhishta

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Antibody Test ◽

List Type ◽

Test Results ◽

Jel Codes ◽

Care Workers ◽

Simulation Based ◽

Mc Simulation ◽

Point Estimators ◽

Aggregate Population

AbstractWe design a procedure (the complete Python code may be obtained athttps://github.com/abhishta91/antibody_montecarlo) using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to establish the point estimators described below and confidence intervals for the base rate of occurence of an attribute (e.g., antibodies against Covid-19) in an aggregate population (e.g., medical care workers) based on a test. The requirements for the procedure are the test’s sample size (N) and total number of positives (X), and the data on test’s reliability.The modus is the prior which generates the largest frequency of observations in the MC simulation with precisely the number of test positives (maximum-likelihood estimator). The median is the upper bound of the set of priors accounting for half of the total relevant observations in the MC simulation with numbers of positives identical to the test’s number of positives.Our rather preliminary findings areThe median and the confidence intervals suffice universally.The estimator may be outside of the two-sided 95% confidence interval.Conditions such that the modus, the median and another promising estimator which takes the reliability of the test into account, are quite close.Conditions such that the modus and the latter estimator must be regarded as logically inconsistent.Conditions inducing rankings among various estimators relevant for issues concerning over-or underestimation.JEL-codes: C11, C13, C63

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Inquiry Learning

Zeitschrift für Pädagogische Psychologie ◽

10.1024/1010-0652.23.2.117 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 117-127 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Astrid Wichmann ◽

Detlev Leutner

Keyword(s):

Scientific Reasoning ◽

Inquiry Learning ◽

Instructional Support ◽

Test Results ◽

Knowledge Test ◽

Simulation Based ◽

Scientific Experiments ◽

Specific Support ◽

Science Classes

Seventy-nine students from three science classes conducted simulation-based scientific experiments. They received one of three kinds of instructional support in order to encourage scientific reasoning during inquiry learning: (1) basic inquiry support, (2) advanced inquiry support including explanation prompts, or (3) advanced inquiry support including explanation prompts and regulation prompts. Knowledge test as well as application test results show that students with regulation prompts significantly outperformed students with explanation prompts (knowledge: d = 0.65; application: d = 0.80) and students with basic inquiry support only (knowledge: d = 0.57; application: d = 0.83). The results are in line with a theoretical focus on inquiry learning according to which students need specific support with respect to the regulation of scientific reasoning when developing explanations during experimentation activities.

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How to interpret borderline HCV antibody test results? A comparative study investigating four different anti-HCV assays

Zeitschrift für Gastroenterologie ◽

10.1055/s-0032-1332156 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 51 (01) ◽

Author(s):

B Maasoumy ◽

B Bremer ◽

R Raupach ◽

P Lehmann ◽

MP Manns ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Comparative Study ◽

Antibody Test ◽

Test Results ◽

Hcv Antibody

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Rapid point-of-care (POC) testing for Hepatitis C antibodies in a very high prevalence setting: persons injecting drugs in Tallinn, Estonia

Harm Reduction Journal ◽

10.1186/s12954-021-00485-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Anneli Uusküla ◽

Ave Talu ◽

Jürgen Rannap ◽

David M. Barnes ◽

Don Des Jarlais

Keyword(s):

Hepatitis C ◽

Point Of Care ◽

Antibody Test ◽

Hcv Rna ◽

Test Results ◽

Blood Draw ◽

Persons Who Inject Drugs ◽

Oral Swab ◽

High Prevalence ◽

Hcv Antibody

Abstract Background Between December 2018 and January of 2019, we evaluated the accuracy of the point-of-care Hepatitis C (HCV) antibody test (POC; OraQuick HCV) used at a community-based needle and syringe exchange program serving persons who inject drugs in Tallinn, Estonia. Methods We compared the results of screening for HCV antibodies by OraQuick (oral swab) and enzyme immunoassay (EIA; blood draw) and assessed test results implications in a high prevalence setting. Findings Of the 100 participants, 88 (88%) had reactive POC test results, and 93 were HCV antibody positive on EIA testing. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) for the POC assay with EIA as the relevant reference test were as follows: 94.6% (95% CI 90.0–99.2%), 100% and 58.3% (95% CI 30.4–86.2%). Of the 12 testing, HCV-negative with the POC only 7 (58.3%) were true negatives. Conclusions Oral swab rapid testing HCV screening in this nonclinical setting was sensitive and specific but had unacceptably low NPV. In high prevalence settings, POC tests with high sensitivity and that directly measure HCV RNA may be warranted.

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A Nationwide Survey of COVID-19 Testing in LGBTQ+ Populations in the United States

Public Health Reports ◽

10.1177/00333549211018190 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 003335492110181

Author(s):

Richard J. Martino ◽

Kristen D. Krause ◽

Marybec Griffin ◽

Caleb LoSchiavo ◽

Camilla Comer-Carruthers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Gay Men ◽

Antibody Test ◽

Nationwide Survey ◽

The United States ◽

Sociodemographic Characteristics ◽

Full Time ◽

Test Results ◽

Antibody Testing ◽

And Gender

Objectives Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer and questioning (LGBTQ+) people and populations face myriad health disparities that are likely to be evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objectives of our study were to describe patterns of COVID-19 testing among LGBTQ+ people and to differentiate rates of COVID-19 testing and test results by sociodemographic characteristics. Methods Participants residing in the United States and US territories (N = 1090) aged ≥18 completed an internet-based survey from May through July 2020 that assessed COVID-19 testing and test results and sociodemographic characteristics, including sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI). We analyzed data on receipt and results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 and symptoms of COVID-19 in relation to sociodemographic characteristics. Results Of the 1090 participants, 182 (16.7%) received a PCR test; of these, 16 (8.8%) had a positive test result. Of the 124 (11.4%) who received an antibody test, 45 (36.3%) had antibodies. Rates of PCR testing were higher among participants who were non–US-born (25.4%) versus US-born (16.3%) and employed full-time or part-time (18.5%) versus unemployed (10.8%). Antibody testing rates were higher among gay cisgender men (17.2%) versus other SOGI groups, non–US-born (25.4%) versus US-born participants, employed (12.6%) versus unemployed participants, and participants residing in the Northeast (20.0%) versus other regions. Among SOGI groups with sufficient cell sizes (n > 10), positive PCR results were highest among cisgender gay men (16.1%). Conclusions The differential patterns of testing and positivity, particularly among gay men in our sample, confirm the need to create COVID-19 public health messaging and programming that attend to the LGBTQ+ population.

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A simple rule for interpreting COVID-19 antibody test results, by seroprevalence and vaccination status

Journal of Microbiology Immunology and Infection ◽

10.1016/j.jmii.2021.02.008 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yi-Hsuan Chen ◽

Chi-Tai Fang

Keyword(s):

Antibody Test ◽

Vaccination Status ◽

Simple Rule ◽

Test Results

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Parametric Bootstrap Methods for Estimating Model Parameters of Non-homogeneous Gamma Process

International Journal of Mathematical Engineering and Management Sciences ◽

10.33889/ijmems.2018.3.2-013 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 167-176 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yasuhiro Saito ◽

Tadashi Dohi

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Bootstrap Method ◽

Parametric Bootstrap ◽

Gamma Process ◽

Estimation Accuracy ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Trend Function ◽

Bootstrap Methods ◽

Parametric Bootstrapping ◽

Simulation Based

Non-Homogeneous Gamma Process (NHGP) is characterized by an arbitrary trend function and a gamma renewal distribution. In this paper, we estimate the confidence intervals of model parameters of NHGP via two parametric bootstrap methods: simulation-based approach and re-sampling-based approach. For each bootstrap method, we apply three methods to construct the confidence intervals. Through simulation experiments, we investigate each parametric bootstrapping and each construction method of confidence intervals in terms of the estimation accuracy. Finally, we find the best combination to estimate the model parameters in trend function and gamma renewal distribution in NHGP.

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A paired comparison of tuberculin skin test results in health care workers using 5 TU and 10 TU tuberculin

Thorax ◽

10.1136/thorax.55.8.693 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 55 (8) ◽

pp. 693-695 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

R. L Stuart

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Tuberculin Skin Test ◽

Skin Test ◽

Health Care Workers ◽

Paired Comparison ◽

Test Results ◽

Care Workers

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JUVENILE LYMPHOCYTIC THYROIDITIS

PEDIATRICS ◽

10.1542/peds.30.6.917 ◽

1962 ◽

Vol 30 (6) ◽

pp. 917-926

Author(s):

Krishna M. Saxena ◽

John D. Crawford

Keyword(s):

Antibody Test ◽

Lymphocytic Infiltration ◽

Thyroid Stimulating Hormone ◽

Test Results ◽

Lymphocytic Thyroiditis ◽

Results Of Treatment ◽

Two Factors ◽

The Moment ◽

Tsh Stimulation ◽

Stimulation Of

Lymphocytic thyroiditis was the most common cause of nontoxic goiters in childhood, comprising about 40% of these and 20% of all goiters seen in our pediatric endocrine clinic. The diagnosis should be considered whenever a nontoxic goiter does not diminish significantly in size within about two weeks in response to thyroid-stimulating-hormone (TSH) suppressive doses of USP thyroid. Observations on 32 children with lymphocytic thyroiditis have been recorded. The diagnosis was proven histologically in 23. In nine patients the diagnosis was presumptive. The condition occurred mostly in preadolescent girls as a slowly developing firm, diffuse, and smooth or nubbly goiter with or without symptoms of anxiety, nervousness and pressure in the neck. The majority of patients were euthyroid when first encountered, though examples both of mild hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were also seen. A high protein-bound iodine value, a large discrepancy between protein-bound iodine and butanol-extractable iodine, and positive tanned erythrocyte antibody test results provided the best diagnostic criteria apart from biopsy. The pathological picture is one of hyperplasia with lymphocytic infiltration and atrophy of thyroid follicles and epithelium. Treatment consisted in giving TSH suppressive doses of thyroid for a prolonged period. The results of treatment were not entirely satisfactory. Genetic predisposition, probably manifested in an abnormal cellular hypersensitivity, and excessive TSH stimulation of the thyroid seem for the moment the two factors in pathogenesis best supported by laboratory evidence.

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Effect of Implementing Simulation Education on Health Care Worker Comfort With Nasopharyngeal Swabbing for COVID-19

Otolaryngology ◽

10.1177/0194599820933168 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 163 (2) ◽

pp. 271-274 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Michelle E. Mark ◽

Phillip LoSavio ◽

Inna Husain ◽

Peter Papagiannopoulos ◽

Pete S. Batra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Health Care Workers ◽

Simulation Training ◽

False Negative ◽

Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽

Level Of Evidence ◽

Improve Health Care ◽

Care Workers ◽

Simulation Based ◽

Improve Health

Objective To determine if rapid implementation of simulation training for the nasopharyngeal swab procedure can increase provider confidence regarding procedure competency. Methods A simulation training exercise was designed as a departmental initiative to improve competency performing nasopharyngeal swabs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sixty-one health care workers attended teaching sessions led by the Department of Otorhinolaryngology on proper nasopharyngeal swab technique. After a brief lecture, participants practiced their swab technique using a high-fidelity airway simulation model. Pre- and postintervention self-evaluations were measured via standardized clinical competency questionnaires on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from “No knowledge, unable to perform” up to “Highly knowledgeable and confident, independent.” Results Forty-six participants in this study submitted pre- and postintervention self-assessments. Postintervention scores improved on average 1.41 points (95% CI, 1.10-1.73) out of 5 from a mean score of 3.13 to 4.54 ( P < .0001). This reflects a large effect size with a Glass’s delta value of 1.3. Discussion Lecture coupled with simulation-based teaching can significantly improve health care workers’ confidence in performing nasopharyngeal swabs. Proper training for frontline workers performing swabs for COVID-19 is essential to improving testing accuracy and can be achieved in a simple and timely manner. Implications for Practice To meet the testing needs of the growing pandemic, many health care workers who are unfamiliar with nasopharyngeal swabs have been asked to perform this test. Simulation-based teaching sessions may improve health care workers’ confidence and help prevent false-negative results. This intervention is easily reproducible in any setting where frequent nasopharyngeal swab testing occurs. Level of Evidence/Study Design Prospective cohort study.

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