scholarly journals Estimating the state of the Covid-19 epidemic in France using a non-Markovian model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphaël Forien ◽  
Guodong Pang ◽  
Étienne Pardoux
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
The State ◽  
Markovian Model ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Ode Model ◽  
Ode Models ◽  
Hospital Deaths ◽  
Paris Region ◽  
Theoretical Results

AbstractIn this paper, we use a deterministic non-Markovian epidemic model to estimate the state of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. This model allows us to consider realistic distributions for the exposed and infectious periods in a SEIR model, contrary to standard ODE models which only consider exponentially distributed exposed and infectious periods. We present theoretical results linking the (unobserved) parameters of the model to various quantities which are more easily measured during the early stages of an epidemic. We also stress the main quantitative differences between the non-Markovian and the Markovian (ODE) model. We then apply these results to estimate the state of the Covid-19 epidemic in France by analyzing three regions: the Paris region, the northeast regions and the rest of the country, based on current knowledge on the infection fatality ratio and the exposed and infectious periods distributions for Covid-19. Our analysis is based on the hospital data published daily by Santé Publique France (daily hospital admissions, intensive care unit admissions and hospital deaths).

scholarly journals Estimating the state of the COVID-19 epidemic in France using a model with memory

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphaël Forien ◽  
Guodong Pang ◽  
Étienne Pardoux
Keyword(s):  
Law Of Large Numbers ◽  
The State ◽  
Susceptible Individual ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Hospital Deaths ◽  
Available Information ◽  
With Memory ◽  
Theoretical Results

In this paper, we use a deterministic epidemic model with memory to estimate the state of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, from early March until mid-December 2020. Our model is in the SEIR class, which means that when a susceptible individual (S) becomes infected, he/she is first exposed (E), i.e. not yet contagious. Then he/she becomes infectious (I) for a certain length of time, during which he/she may infect susceptible individuals around him/her, and finally becomes removed (R), that is, either immune or dead. The specificity of our model is that it assumes a very general probability distribution for the pair of exposed and infectious periods. The law of large numbers limit of such a model is a model with memory (the future evolution of the model depends not only upon its present state, but also upon its past). We present theoretical results linking the (unobserved) parameters of the model to various quantities which are more easily measured during the early stages of an epidemic. We then apply these results to estimate the state of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, using available information on the infection fatality ratio and on the distribution of the exposed and infectious periods. Using the hospital data published daily by Santé Publique France, we gather some information on the delay between infection and hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and hospital deaths, and on the proportion of people who have been infected up to the end of 2020.

scholarly journals Proteomic and Genomic Studies on Lizard Venoms in the Last Decade

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. PRI.S3693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Fai Kwok ◽  
Craig Ivanyi ◽  
Andrew Morris ◽  
Chris Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Potential Benefit ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
The State ◽  
Bioactive Molecules ◽  
Genomic Research ◽  
Active Compounds ◽  
Current Review ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
Genomic Studies

Traditionally man has looked to nature to provide cures for diseases. This approach still exists today in the form of ‘bio-prospecting’ for therapeutically-active compounds in venoms. For example, the venoms of many reptiles offer a spectacular laboratory of bioactive molecules, including peptides and proteins. In the last 10–15 years, there have been a number of major proteomic and genomic research breakthroughs on lizard venoms. In this current review, the key findings from these proteomic and genomic studies will be critically discussed and suggestions will be offered for future focused investigations. It is our intention that this article will not only provide a comprehensive picture of the state of current knowledge of the components of lizard venoms, but also engender awareness in readers of the need to protect and conserve such uniquely precious natural resources for several reasons, including the potential benefit of humankind.

scholarly journals Thracian

2020 ◽  
pp. 787-817
Author(s):  
Wojciech Sowa
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
The State ◽  
Roman Period ◽  
Entire Period ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
History Of ◽  
South Eastern Europe

Thracian belongs to the group of languages spoken over the entire period of Antiquity in the areas of south-eastern Europe (mostly the Balkans) and which, like other vernaculars spoken in this and neighbouring areas, had died out by the end of the Roman period leaving but scanty evidence. This chapter provides an introduction into the state of our current knowledge about the Thracian language and epigraphy and the perspectives of research of this language. Since our comprehension and understanding of grammatical system of Thracian is limited, the current knowledge of the language makes any translation of attested inscriptions impossible. It is however expected that the progress in studying development and history of the Greek script may provide us with new and relevant data for interpretation of Thracian.

scholarly journals Treatment outcomes in a rural HIV clinic in South Africa: Implications for health care

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olufemi B. Omole ◽  
Mary-Anne M.L. Semenya
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Outcomes ◽  
Antiretroviral Treatment ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Opportunistic Infections ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Cd4 Count ◽  
Viral Rebound ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Adherence Support ◽  
Patient Retention

Objective: To assess the treatment outcomes of an HIV clinic in rural Limpopo province, South Africa.Methods: A retrospective cohort study involving medical records review of HIV-positive patients initiated on antiretroviral treatment (ART) was conducted from December 2007 to November 2008 at Letaba Hospital. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, CD4 counts, viral loads (VLs), opportunistic infections, adverse effects of treatment, hospital admissions, and patient retention at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months on ART were collected. Analysis included descriptive statistics, chi-square and t-tests.Results: Of 124 patient records sampled, the majority of patients were female (69%), single (49%), unemployed (56%), living at least 10 km from the hospital (52.4%), and were on treatment at 36 months (69%). Approximately 84% of patients achieved viral suppression (VLs < 400 copies/mL) by 6 months of ART and the mean CD4 count increased from 128 at baseline to 470 cells/mm3 at 24 months. There was a mean weight gain of 5.9 kg over the 36 months and the proportion of patients with opportunistic infections decreased from 54.8% (n = 68) at baseline to 15.3% (n = 19) at 36 months. Although the largest improvements in CD4, VLs, and weights were recorded in the first 6 months of ART, viral rebound became evident thereafter. Of all variables, only age < 50 years and being pregnant were significantly associated with higher VLs (p = 0.03).Conclusion: Good treatment outcomes are achievable in a rural South African ART clinic. However, early viral rebound and higher VLs in pregnancy highlight the need for enhanced treatment adherence support, especially for pregnant women to reduce the risk of mother to child transmission.Keywords: CD4 count; viral load; rura;, treatment outcomes; antiretroviral treatment; patient retention

scholarly journals The relationship between the sovereignty of member states and the supernationality of international organizations

2020 ◽  
pp. 349-353
Author(s):  
Olga Shpakovych ◽  
Sofia Penkovska
Keyword(s):  
International Organizations ◽  
The State ◽  
International Organization ◽  
State Sovereignty ◽  
Member States ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
The Eu

The article presents the result of theoretical and practical study of the relationship between state sovereignty and supranationalityof international organizations. In particular, it is determined that the phenomenon of supranationality of international organizations isderived from state sovereignty and acts as its external law. It has been shown that, in view of this, supranationality is limited becauseit arises through the exercise of sovereignty by states, and, accordingly, is limited by the amount of state sovereignty exercised by states.The relevant mechanism has also been studied on the example of the functioning of the European Union.Regarding the theoretical results, the following should be noted. First, it was proved that despite the different approaches of scho -lars to the understanding of supranationality, definitions of this concept and the separation of its features (properties), in each case,supranationality is a direct realization of state sovereignty. At the same time, the realization of state sovereignty in relation to such pro -perties of international organizations as supranational is primary, and supranationality in this case is derivative. In addition, the phenomenonof supranationality of international organizations due to the fact that it is derived is limited, because supranationality arisesthrough the exercise of sovereignty by states, and, accordingly, is limited by the amount of state sovereignty exercised by states. Thatis why when analyzing the relationship between the supranationality of international organizations and state sovereignty, one cannotconsider the priority of one of the two, because supranationality is in essence a manifestation of state sovereignty.Regarding the practical results, the author considers it appropriate to emphasize that both the regional international organization –the EU was studied, and, at the same time, it was proved that all theoretical provisions were reflected in practice, in particular, envisagedfunctions, goals and the tasks of the studied international organizations are limited in scope by the manifestation of sovereignty shownby states, similar to the regulations issued by organizations. Another indication that the state can exercise its sovereignty in any case isthat there is an effective and transparent procedure for leaving these organizations

scholarly journals Prevalence, repairs and complications of hypospadias: an Australian population-based study

2015 ◽  
Vol 100 (11) ◽  
pp. 1038-1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Schneuer ◽  
Andrew J A Holland ◽  
Gavin Pereira ◽  
Carol Bower ◽  
Natasha Nassar
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Procedures ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Primary Repair ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Late Complications ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Australian Population ◽  
Post Surgery ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Increased Risk

ObjectiveTo investigate hypospadias’ prevalence and trends, rate of surgical repairs and post-repair complications in an Australian population.MethodsHypospadias cases were identified from all live-born infants in New South Wales, Australia, during the period 2001–2010, using routinely collected birth and hospital data. Prevalence, trends, surgical procedures or repairs, hospital admissions and complications following surgery were evaluated. Risk factors for reoperation and complications were assessed using multivariate logistic regression.ResultsThere were 3186 boys with hypospadias in 2001–2010. Overall prevalence was 35.1 per 10 000 live births and remained constant during the study period. Proportions of anterior, middle, proximal and unspecified hypospadias were 41.3%, 26.2%, 5.8% and 26.6%, respectively. Surgical procedures were performed in 1945 boys (61%), with 1718 primary repairs. The overall post-surgery complication rate involving fistulas or strictures was 13%, but higher (33%) for proximal cases. Complications occurred after 1 year post-repair in 52.3% of cases and up to 5 years. Boys with proximal or middle hypospadias were at increased risk of reoperation or complications, but age at primary repair did not affect the outcome.ConclusionOne in 285 infants were affected with hypospadias, 60% required surgical repair or correction and one in eight experienced complications. The frequency of late complications would suggest that clinical review should be maintained for >1 year post-repair.

scholarly journals Benchmark problems for dynamic modeling of intracellular processes

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (17) ◽  
pp. 3073-3082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helge Hass ◽  
Carolin Loos ◽  
Elba Raimúndez-Álvarez ◽  
Jens Timmer ◽  
Jan Hasenauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Supplementary Information ◽  
Benchmark Problems ◽  
Ode Model ◽  
Cellular Processes ◽  
Ode Models ◽  
Estimated Parameters ◽  
Readable Form ◽  
Machine Readable ◽  
Molecular Compounds

Abstract Motivation Dynamic models are used in systems biology to study and understand cellular processes like gene regulation or signal transduction. Frequently, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are used to model the time and dose dependency of the abundances of molecular compounds as well as interactions and translocations. A multitude of computational approaches, e.g. for parameter estimation or uncertainty analysis have been developed within recent years. However, many of these approaches lack proper testing in application settings because a comprehensive set of benchmark problems is yet missing. Results We present a collection of 20 benchmark problems in order to evaluate new and existing methodologies, where an ODE model with corresponding experimental data is referred to as problem. In addition to the equations of the dynamical system, the benchmark collection provides observation functions as well as assumptions about measurement noise distributions and parameters. The presented benchmark models comprise problems of different size, complexity and numerical demands. Important characteristics of the models and methodological requirements are summarized, estimated parameters are provided, and some example studies were performed for illustrating the capabilities of the presented benchmark collection. Availability and implementation The models are provided in several standardized formats, including an easy-to-use human readable form and machine-readable SBML files. The data is provided as Excel sheets. All files are available at https://github.com/Benchmarking-Initiative/Benchmark-Models, including step-by-step explanations and MATLAB code to process and simulate the models. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

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