Impact of COVID-19 Attributable Deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Sweden and Germany

AbstractIn a short span of four months, the COVID-19 pandemic has added over 0.4 million deaths worldwide, which are untimely, premature and unwarranted. The USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden are four worst affected countries, accounting to over 40% of COVID-19 deaths globally. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of COVID-19 attributable deaths on longevity, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and disability adjusted life years (DALY) in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Data from United Nation Population Projection, Statista and centre for disease control and prevention were used in the analyses. Life expectancy, YPLL and DALY were estimated under four scenarios; no COVID-19 deaths, actual number of COVID-19 death as of 22nd May, 2020 and anticipating COVID-19 death share of 6% and 10% respectively. The COVID-19 attributable deaths have lowered the life expectancy by 0.4 years each in USA and Sweden, 0.5 years in Italy and 0.1 years in Germany. The loss of YPLL was 1.5, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.5 million in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden respectively. The DALY (per 1000 population) due to COVID-19 was 4 in USA, 6 in Italy, 1 each in Germany and Sweden. Compression in life expectancy and increase in YPLL and DALY may intensify further if death continues to soar. COVID-19 has a marked impact on mortality. Reduction in longevity premature mortality and loss of DALY is higher among elderly.

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Estimation of economic burden of COVID-19 using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Productivity Losses in Kerala state, India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118146/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

Narassima MS ◽

Jaideep C Menon ◽

Guru Rajesh Jammy

Keyword(s):

Global Economy ◽

Age Groups ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Males And Females ◽

Kerala State ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the global economy and stressed the health care systems worldwide. Measuring the burden of disease on health and economy is essential for system preparedness by way of allocation of funds and human resources.Methods: The present study estimates Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL) and Cost of Productivity Lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism, secondary to COVID-19 in Kerala state, India. The impact of disease on various age-gender cohorts has been analyzed. Sensitivity Analysis has been conducted by adjusting six variables with a total of 21 scenarios. Results: Severity of infection and mortality were higher among older sub-group of patients, and male were more susceptible than female in most of the age groups. DALY for the baseline scenario was 15,924.24 and 8,669.32 for males and females respectively. The CPL due to premature mortality was 26,80,36,179 and 42,510,946 for males and females respectively. Conclusion: People aged more than 50 were disproportionately affected by the disease, with presence of comorbidities further raising vulnerability.

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Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-06026-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Guru Vasishtha ◽

Sanjay K. Mohanty ◽

Udaya S. Mishra ◽

Manisha Dubey ◽

Umakanta Sahoo

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

The State ◽

Multiple Sources ◽

Life Expectancy At Birth ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Working Age ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world’s population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India’s population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India. Method Using data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19. Result COVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20–64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand. Conclusion COVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.

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Estimation of the economic burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and productivity losses in Kerala, India: a model-based analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049619 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. e049619

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

M S Narassima ◽

Jaideep Menon ◽

Jammy Guru Rajesh ◽

Amitava Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Economic Burden ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Model Based ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact ◽

Model Based Analysis

ObjectivesFrom the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, clinical practice and research globally have centred on the prevention of transmission and treatment of the disease. The pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy and stressed healthcare systems worldwide. The present study estimates disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) and cost of productivity lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism secondary to COVID-19 in the state of Kerala, India.SettingDetails on sociodemographics, incidence, death, quarantine, recovery time, etc were derived from public sources and the Collective for Open Data Distribution-Keralam. The working proportion for 5-year age–gender cohorts and the corresponding life expectancy were obtained from the 2011 Census of India.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe impact of the disease was computed through model-based analysis on various age–gender cohorts. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by adjusting six variables across 21 scenarios. We present two estimates, one until 15 November 2020 and later updated to 10 June 2021.ResultsSeverity of infection and mortality were higher among the older cohorts, with men being more susceptible than women in most subgroups. DALYs for males and females were 15 954.5 and 8638.4 until 15 November 2020, and 83 853.0 and 56 628.3 until 10 June 2021. The corresponding YPPLL were 1323.57 and 612.31 until 15 November 2020, and 6993.04 and 3811.57 until 10 June 2021, and the CPL (premature mortality) were 263 780 579.94 and 41 836 001.82 until 15 November 2020, and 1 419 557 903.76 and 278 275 495.29 until 10 June 2021.ConclusionsMost of the COVID-19 burden was contributed by years of life lost. Losses due to YPPLL were reduced as the impact of COVID-19 infection was lesser among the productive cohorts. The CPL values for individuals aged 40–49 years old were the highest. These estimates provide the data necessary for policymakers to work on reducing the economic burden of COVID-19 in Kerala.

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Estimation of economic burden of COVID-19 using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Productivity Losses in Kerala state, India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118146/v3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

Narassima MS ◽

Jaideep C Menon ◽

Guru Rajesh Jammy ◽

Amitava Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Economic Burden ◽

Age Groups ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Male And Female ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Kerala State ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, clinical practice and research, globally, have centered on prevention of transmission and treatment of the disease. The pandemic has had a huge impact on the global economy and stressed the health care systems worldwide.Methods: The present study estimates Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL) and Cost of Productivity Lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism, secondary to COVID-19 in Kerala state, India. Details on sociodemography, incidence, death, quarantine, per capita income etc were dervived from various public sources. 5-year age-gender population, working population in each age-gender cohort and corresponding life expectancies were obtained from Census of India 2011. Data on incidence and recovery time were dervied from CODD-K. Details of deaths were extracted from government sources and CODD-K. The impact of disease on various age-gender cohorts has been analyzed. Sensitivity Analysis has been conducted by adjusting six variables with a total of 21 scenarios.Results: Severity of infection and mortality were higher among older sub-group of patients, and male were more susceptible than female in most of the age groups. DALYs for the baseline scenario was 15,924.24 and 8,669.32 for male and female respectively. Total YPPLL for male and female cohorts were estimated to be 1323.57 and 612.31 respectively. People of 40-49 years age constituted 51.34% and 41.76% of the total CPL values (for premature mortality) of males and females respectively.Conclusion: Most of the disease burden from COVID-19 was contributed by YLL. Losses due to YPPLL was reduced as the impact of COVID-19 infection was relatively lesser among the productive age groups. CPL values for people aged from 40-49 years were the highest. These estimates put emphasis that the decision-makers should focus and make efforts on reducing the economic burden for the longer impact of COVID-19 in Kerala state.

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Estimation of the economic burden of COVID-19 using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Productivity Losses in Kerala, India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118146/v4 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

Narassima MS ◽

Jaideep C Menon ◽

Guru Rajesh Jammy ◽

Amitava Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Economic Burden ◽

Health Care Systems ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Care Systems ◽

Males And Females ◽

The Impact

Abstract Objectives: From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, clinical practice and research, globally, have centered on the prevention of transmission and treatment of the disease. The pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy and stressed the health care systems worldwide. The present study estimates Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL), and Cost of Productivity Lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism, secondary to COVID-19 in Kerala state, India. Setting: Details on sociodemography, incidence, death, quarantine, recovery time, etc were derived from public sources and CODD-K for Kerala. The working proportion for 5-year age-gender cohorts and corresponding life expectancy were obtained from the Census of India 2011. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The impact of disease on various age-gender cohorts have been analyzed. Sensitivity Analysis has been conducted by adjusting six variables across 21 scenarios. In addition, the estimates have been updated till June 10, 2021. Results: Severity of infection and mortality were higher among the older cohorts, with males being more susceptible than females in most sub-groups. The DALYs for males and females were 15954.5 and 8638.4 till November 15, 2020, and 83853.0 and 56628.3 till June 10, 2021. The corresponding YPPLL were 1323.57 and 612.31 till November 15, 2020, and 6993.04 and 3811.57 till June 10, 2021. CPL (premature mortality) for males and females were 263780579.94 and 41836001.82 till November 15, 2020, and 1419557903.76 and 278275495.29 till June 10, 2021. Conclusions: Most of the COVID-19 disease burden was contributed by YLL. Losses due to YPPLL were reduced as the impact of COVID-19 infection was relatively lesser among productive cohorts. CPL values for 40-49 year-olds were the highest. . These estimates provide the figures and data necessary to policymakers to work on, in order to reduce the economic burden of COVID-19 in Kerala.

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Estimation of the economic burden of COVID-19 using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Productivity Losses in Kerala, India: A model based analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118146/v5 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

M.S. Narassima ◽

Jaideep C Menon ◽

Guru Rajesh Jammy ◽

Amitava Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Economic Burden ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Model Based ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Kerala State ◽

The Impact ◽

Model Based Analysis

Abstract Objectives: From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, clinical practice and research, globally, have centered on the prevention of transmission and treatment of the disease. The pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy and stressed the healthcare systems worldwide. The present study estimates Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL), and Cost of Productivity Lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism, secondary to COVID-19 in Kerala state, India. Setting: Details on sociodemography, incidence, death, quarantine, recovery time, etc were derived from public sources and CODD-K for Kerala. The working proportion for 5-year age-gender cohorts and corresponding life expectancy were obtained from the Census of India 2011. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The impact of disease was computed through model based analysis on various age-gender cohorts. Sensitivity Analysis has been conducted by adjusting six variables across 21 scenarios. We present two estimates, one till November 15, 2020, and later updated till June 10, 2021. Results: Severity of infection and mortality were higher among the older cohorts, with males being more susceptible than females in most sub-groups. The DALYs for males and females were 15954.5 and 8638.4 till November 15, 2020, and 83853.0 and 56628.3 till June 10, 2021. The corresponding YPPLL were 1323.57 and 612.31 till November 15, 2020, and 6993.04 and 3811.57 till June 10, 2021 and CPL (premature mortality) were 263780579.94 and 41836001.82 till November 15, 2020, and 1419557903.76 and 278275495.29 till June 10, 2021. Conclusions: Most of the COVID-19 disease burden was contributed by YLL. Losses due to YPPLL were reduced as the impact of COVID-19 infection was lesser among productive cohorts. CPL values for 40-49 year-olds were the highest. These estimates provide the data necessary for policymakers to work on, to reduce the economic burden of COVID-19 in Kerala.Article summaryStrengths and limitations of this study- The first study to characterize the economic burden caused by COVID-19 in Kerala state using DALYs, YPPLL, and CPL- Use of public sourced data for analysis and presentation of results- Exclusion of incidence of case post August 20, 2020, due to unavailability of data could lead to an underestimation of DALYs- Psychological impacts of the mitigation strategies (e.g., lockdown, travel restrictions, etc.) that could increase mortality were not included in the scope- Unpaid work and presenteeism data, and data on post-recovery illness and long-term effects of COVID-19 have not been considered.

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Estimation of economic burden of COVID-19 using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Productivity Losses in Kerala state, India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118146/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

Narassima MS ◽

Jaideep C Menon ◽

Guru Rajesh Jammy

Keyword(s):

Global Economy ◽

Age Groups ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Males And Females ◽

Kerala State ◽

The Impact

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Sex-Dependent End-of-Life Mental and Vascular Scenarios for Compensatory Mechanisms in Mice with Normal and AD-Neurodegenerative Aging

Biomedicines ◽

10.3390/biomedicines9020111 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 111

Author(s):

Aida Muntsant ◽

Francesc Jiménez-Altayó ◽

Lidia Puertas-Umbert ◽

Elena Jiménez-Xarrie ◽

Elisabet Vila ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

End Of Life ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Pharmacological Interventions ◽

Compensatory Mechanisms ◽

Healthy Life ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Bidirectional Interactions

Life expectancy decreases with aging, with cardiovascular, mental health, and neurodegenerative disorders strongly contributing to the total disability-adjusted life years. Interestingly, the morbidity/mortality paradox points to females having a worse healthy life expectancy. Since bidirectional interactions between cardiovascular and Alzheimer’s diseases (AD) have been reported, the study of this emerging field is promising. In the present work, we further explored the cardiovascular–brain interactions in mice survivors of two cohorts of non-transgenic and 3xTg-AD mice, including both sexes, to investigate the frailty/survival through their life span. Survival, monitored from birth, showed exceptionally worse mortality rates in females than males, independently of the genotype. This mortality selection provided a “survivors” cohort that could unveil brain–cardiovascular interaction mechanisms relevant for normal and neurodegenerative aging processes restricted to long-lived animals. The results show sex-dependent distinct physical (worse in 3xTg-AD males), neuropsychiatric-like and cognitive phenotypes (worse in 3xTg-AD females), and hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis activation (higher in females), with higher cerebral blood flow and improved cardiovascular phenotype in 3xTg-AD female mice survivors. The present study provides an experimental scenario to study the suggested potential compensatory hemodynamic mechanisms in end-of-life dementia, which is sex-dependent and can be a target for pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions.

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Assessing antiretroviral therapy success in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality trends in Brazil, 1990–2017: an interrupted time series study

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1177/0956462420952989 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 095646242095298

Author(s):

Augusto Cesar Lara de Sousa ◽

Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio ◽

José Victor Afonso Coutinho ◽

Raphael Mendonça Guimarães

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Antiretroviral Therapy ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact ◽

Hiv Aids

To describe the trends of HIV/AIDS metrics related to the burden of disease for Brazil between 1990 and 2017 we conducted a timeseries analysis for HIV/AIDS indicators by extracting data from the Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated traditional prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, the number of years lost by HIV-related deaths (YLL) and disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). We estimated time series models and assessed the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the same indicators. In the set of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), the highest weight of its magnitude was due to YLL. There was a decline, especially after 1996, of DALY, mortality and YLL for HIV/AIDS. However, YLD, incidence, and prevalence increased over the same period. Also, the analysis of interrupted time series showed that the introduction of HAART into health policy had a significant impact on indicators, especially for DALY and YLL. We need to assess the quality of life of people living with HIV, especially among older adults. In addition, we need to focus on primary prevention, emphasizing methods to avoid infection and public policies should reflect this.

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