scholarly journals Total NT-proBNP, a novel biomarker in atrial fibrillation. A mechanistic analysis of the GISSI-AF trial

Author(s):  
Lidia Staszewsky ◽  
Jennifer Meessen ◽  
Deborah Novelli ◽  
Ulla Wienhues-Thelen ◽  
Marcello Disertori ◽  
...  

AbstractObjective(1) to test the association with prevalent and incident atrial fibrillation (AF), and prognosis of total N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (total NT-proBNP) and of a panel of biomarkers; (2) to assess iwhether the extent of glycosylation affects the relation of NT-proBNP with AF.MethodsIn a sub-study of the GISSI-AF trial on 382 patients in sinus rhythm with a history of AF, echocardiographic variables and eight circulating biomarkers were serially assayed over one year. The relations between circulating baseline biomarkers and AF and the risk of CV events, were assessed by Cox-analysis models adjusting the first by clinical variables, the second by clinical variables and the echocardiographic left-atrial-minimum-volume-index (LAVImin).ResultsOver a median follow-up of 365 days, 203/382 patients (53.1%) had at least one recurrence of AF and 16.3% were hospitalized for cardiovascular (CV) reasons. Total NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP, angiopoietin 2 (Ang2), myosin binding protein (MyBPC3) and bone morphogenic protein-10 (BMP-10) were strongly associated to ongoing AF. Natriuretic peptides and MyBPC3 predicted recurrent AF but this lost significance after adjustment for LAVImin. NT-proBNP and Ang2 predicted CV hospitalization even after adjustment for LAVImin, HR95%CI: 2.20 [1.02-4.80] and 5.26 [1.16-23.79].ConclusionsThe association of AF recurrence with the novel biomarker total NT-proBNP, is similar to that of NT-proBNP, suggesting no influence of glycosylation. Ang2, MyBPC3 and BMP10 were strongly associated with AF, indicating a possible role of extracellular matrix and myocardial injury. Abstract-words=233Key messagesWhat is already known on this subject?It is still complicated to predict the recurrence of AF in patients in sinus rhythm with a recent history of AF. Though several biomarkers have been associated with AF, few of them have proved to be independent predictors for recurrent AF or cardiovascular (CV) events. Their predictive sensitivity and specificity is modest at best. Previous studies showed that NT-proBNP was possibly the strongest predictor of recurrent AF and CV hospitalization. Natriuretic peptides circulate to a large extent as glycosylated molecules and a novel assay is now available to measure the glycosylated and non-glycosylated NT-proBNP in plasma, the total NT-proBNP. The extent of glycosylation varies in different diseases.What might this study add?No studies have assessed (a) the extent of NT-proBNP glycosylation in AF, or (b) the association and predictive value in patients with AF of total NT-proBNP. A multimarker approach, ratter than one based on a single biomarker, might predict AF better.The relation with AF of the novel biomarker, total NT-proBNP, is as strong as that of NT-proBNP, suggesting no-influence of glycosylation.Two biomarkers, MyBPC3, secreted few minutes after myocardial injury and Ang-2, involved in inflammation and coagulation, were strongly associated to AF.How might this impact on clinical practice?The identification of novel circulating biomarkers could have a direct impact on clinical practice when predicting the occurrence of AF, but unfortunately current data do not allow predictions based on biomarkers.The associations of different biomarkers with ongoing AF may cast light on the mechanisms of triggering and maintenance of AF.Strengths and limitations of this studyThe data came from to a multicenter randomized clinical trial with available concomitant serial echocardiographic and circulating biomarkers recorded and evaluated centrally, hence with minimal bias; AF recurrence during a 12-month follow up was checked weekly by trans-telephonic electrocardiographic monitoring, and with 12-lead ECG every six months.A comparative analysis of total NT-proBNP with other novel biomarkers and echocardiographic variables has never been done so far. The possible added value of total NT-proBNP to the benchmark biomarker NT-proBNP was assessed on the basis of different dimensions of performance, as recently proposed for new biomarkers. The main limitations are (1) the relatively small numbers of patients with AF during follow-up visits, (2) the very low prevalence of patients with other cardiac diseases such as coronary artery disease and heart failure, and (3) consequently, the low incidence of clinical events in one-year follow-up.

Author(s):  
Shinwan Kany ◽  
Johannes Brachmann ◽  
Thorsten Lewalter ◽  
Ibrahim Akin ◽  
Horst Sievert ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Non-paroxysmal (NPAF) forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been reported to be associated with an increased risk for systemic embolism or death. Methods Comparison of procedural details and long-term outcomes in patients (pts) with paroxysmal AF (PAF) against controls with NPAF in the prospective, multicentre observational registry of patients undergoing LAAC (LAARGE). Results A total of 638 pts (PAF 274 pts, NPAF 364 pts) were enrolled. In both groups, a history of PVI was rare (4.0% vs 1.6%, p = 0.066). The total CHA2DS2-VASc score was lower in the PAF group (4.4 ± 1.5 vs 4.6 ± 1.5, p = 0.033), while HAS-BLED score (3.8 ± 1.1 vs 3.9 ± 1.1, p = 0.40) was comparable. The rate of successful implantation was equally high (97.4% vs 97.8%, p = 0.77). In the three-month echo follow-up, LA thrombi (2.1% vs 7.3%, p = 0.12) and peridevice leak > 5 mm (0.0% vs 7.1%, p = 0.53) were numerically higher in the NPAF group. Overall, in-hospital complications occurred in 15.0% of the PAF cohort and 10.7% of the NPAF cohort (p = 0.12). In the one-year follow-up, unadjusted mortality (8.4% vs 14.0%, p = 0.039) and combined outcome of death, stroke and systemic embolism (8.8% vs 15.1%, p = 0.022) were significantly higher in the NPAF cohort. After adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc and previous bleeding, NPAF was associated with increased death/stroke/systemic embolism (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.02–2.72, p = 0.041). Conclusion Atrial fibrillation type did not impair periprocedural safety or in-hospital MACE patients undergoing LAAC. However, after one year, NPAF was associated with higher mortality. Graphic abstract


EP Europace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Kany ◽  
J Brachmann ◽  
T Lewalter ◽  
I Akin ◽  
H Sievert ◽  
...  

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Stiftung für Herzinfarkforschung Background  Non-paroxysmal (NPAF) forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been reported to be associated with an increased risk for systemic embolism or death compared with paroxysmal AF (PAF). This study investigates the procedural safety and long-term outcomes of left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) in patients with different forms of AF. Methods  Comparison of procedural details and long-term outcomes in patients (pts) with PAF against controls with NPAF in the prospective, multicentre observational registry of patients undergoing LAAC in Germany (LAARGE).  Results  A total of 638 pts (PAF 274 pts, NPAF 364 pts) were enrolled. NPAF consisted of 31.6% patients with persistent AF and 68.4% with longstanding persistent AF or permanent AF. In both groups, a history of PVI was rare (4.0% vs 1.6%, p = 0.066). The PAF group had significantly less history of heart failure (19.0% vs 33.0%, p < 0.001) while the current median LVEF was similar (60% vs 60%, p = 0.26). The total CHA2DS2-VASc score was lower in the PAF group (4.4 ± 1.5 vs 4.6 ± 1.5, p = 0.033), but no difference in the HAS-BLED score (3.8 ± 1.1 vs 3.9 ± 1.1, p = 0.40) was observed. The rate of successful implantation was equally high (97.4% vs 97.8%, p = 0.77) in both groups. In the three-month echo follow-up, device-related thrombi (2.1% vs 7.3%, p = 0.12) and peridevice leak >5 mm (0.0% vs 7.1%, p= 0.53) were numerically higher in the NPAF group. Overall, in-hospital complications occurred in 15.0% of the PAF cohort and 10.7% of the NPAF cohort (p = 0.12). In the one-year follow-up, unadjusted mortality (8.4% vs 14.0%, p = 0.039) and combined outcome of death, stroke and systemic embolism (8.8% vs 15.1%, p = 0.022) were significantly higher in the NPAF cohort. After adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc and previous bleeding, NPAF was associated with increased death/stroke/systemic embolism (HR 1.67, 95%-CI: 1.02-2.72). Conclusion  Atrial fibrillation type did not impair periprocedural safety or in-hospital MACE of patients undergoing LAAC. However, after one year, NPAF was associated with higher mortality and combined outcome of death, stroke and systemic embolism.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Tanaka ◽  
KOICHI INOUE ◽  
Atsushi Kobori ◽  
Kazuaki Kaitani ◽  
Takeshi Morimoto ◽  
...  

Background: Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) of AF is effective for maintaining sinus rhythm though its impact on heart failure still remains controversial. Purpose: We sought to elucidate whether AF recurrence following RFCA was associated with subsequent HF hospitalizations. Methods: We conducted a large-scale, prospective, multicenter, observational study. A total of 4931 consecutive patients who underwent an initial RFCA for AF with longer than 1-year of follow-up in 26 centers were enrolled (average age, 64±10 years; non-paroxysmal AF, 35.7%). The median follow-up duration was 2.9 years. The primary endpoint was an HF hospitalization more than 1-year after the index RFCA. We compared the patients without AF recurrences (group A) to those with AF recurrences within 1-year post RFCA (group B). Results: The 1-year cumulative incidence of AF recurrences after a single procedure was 30.7% (group A=3418, group B=1513 patients). Group B had a lower body mass index (group A vs. group B,24.1±3.6 vs. 23.8±3.4 kg/m 2 , p=0.014), longer history of AF (1.9 vs. 3.1 years, p<0.0001), higher prevalence of non-paroxysmal AF (32.1% vs. 33.9%, p<0.0001), and valvular heart disease (5.9% vs. 7.8%, p=0.013). They also had a lower ejection fraction (63.7±9.4% vs. 62.8±9.6%, p=0.0043) and larger left atrial dimeter (39.7±6.6 vs. 40.6±7.0 mm, p<0.0001) on echocardiography. Hospitalizations for HF were observed in 57 patients (1.14%) more than 1-year after the RFCA and were significantly higher in group B than group A (group A vs. group B, 0.91% vs 1.72%, log-rank p=0.019). Conclusions: Among AF patients receiving RFCA, those with AF recurrences were at a greater risk of subsequent heart failure hospitalizations than those without AF recurrences. Recognition that AF recurrence following RFCA is a risk factor for a subsequent HF-related hospitalization is appropriate in clinical practice.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Annunziata ◽  
F Notaristefano ◽  
L Spighi ◽  
S Piraccini ◽  
G Giuffre' ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Left atrial strain (LAs) shows correlation with atrial fibrosis and is a predictor of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after transcatheter ablation. Little is known about LAs evolution after ablation. Purpose We sought to evaluate the atrial function with echocardiographic strain before and 6 months after AF ablation. Methods 65 consecutive patients undergoing radiofrequency or cryoballoon ablation for atrial fibrillation at our centre were enrolled. They underwent a transthoracic echocardiography before the procedure and at 6 months follow-up. 5 patients were excluded because of low quality images. Global left atrial strain during the reservoir phase (LASr) was calculated as a mean of the values obtained in 4 and 2 chamber apical view; the ventricular end-diastole was set as reference to allow the calculation both in patients in AF and sinus rhythm during the echocardiography. Recurrence was defined as any atrial arrhythmia episode lasting more than 30 seconds recorded on an EKG strip after the 3 months blanking period; all patients underwent a 24 hours EKG Holter after the blanking period to detect asymptomatic recurrence. Quality of life was assessed before the procedure and at follow-up with the EQ-5D-3L model. Results At 6 months 14 patients (13%) had AF recurrence. Patients with recurrence (AF-R) had similar baseline characteristics compared to those without recurrence (AF-NR) but the former had a longer history of AF (39±53 vs 85±94 months, p=0,018). LASr, LA volume and left ventricle ejection fraction (EF) were similar at baseline between groups. At follow-up LASr was significantly impaired in the AF-R group compared to AF-NR (14±6% vs 26±10% respectively, p&lt;0,0001) whereas LA volume, LV end systolic volume and EF remained similar. Compared to baseline LASr worsened in patients experiencing AF recurrence (22±11% vs 14±6%, p=0.016) and this finding was consistent also in patients in sinus rhythm during both examinations (29±8 vs 17±7, p=0,005). Compared to baseline LASr (22±10% vs 26±10%, p=0.024), LV end-systolic volume (29±15 ml vs 22±6 ml, p=0,006) and EF (51±9% vs 58±18%, p=0,038) improved in the AF-NR group but the effect was driven mainly by patients restoring sinus rhythm. Both groups showed a significant improvement of the quality of life (55±23 vs 85±13, p&lt;0,0001 AF-NR; 63±17 vs 80±12, p=0,012 AF-R). Conclusions Atrial fibrillation recurrence after transcatheter ablation is associated with significant left atrial strain worsening which indicates disease progression and may predispose to further long-term recurrences whereas a successful ablation has a protective effect on atrial function. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


EP Europace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Papakonstantinou ◽  
E Simantirakis ◽  
E Kanoupakis ◽  
F Parthenakis ◽  
P Vardas

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements The study was supported by Medtronic Inc Background The natural history of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) after the first clinical AF episode is not well known. AF burden is of clinical significance as it may have clinical implications concerning the long-term management of the arrhythmia and the decision-making on AF patients.  Purpose To observe the natural history of AF in patients after their first clinical paroxysmal AF episode.  Methods Thirty consecutive patients (age 66.9 ± 10 years; 14 men) received an implantable loop recorder (ILR) after their first symptomatic paroxysmal AF episode. We recorded the AF recurrences and burden (clinical and subclinical AF) during a follow-up period of three years. We excluded patients with persistent or permanent AF and patients with an episode of AF attributed to reversible or transient causes.  Results Eight patients (26.6%) did not present any AF recurrence during the first year of the follow-up period. Five patients (16.6%) did not also suffer any AF episode during the second year, while in three patients (10%) no AF episode was recorded during the three-year follow-up period. In 16 patients (53.3%) the AF burden was increased during the second year of follow-up period while in 9 patients (30%) the AF burden was decreased. During the third year of follow-up period the AF burden was increased in 19 patients (63.3%), decreased in 7 patients (23.3%) and remained almost the same in 4 patients (13.3%). Five patients (16.6%) presented at least one episode of persistent AF during the follow-up period. Seven patients (23.3%) suffered only from symptomatic AF episodes, while in nine patients (30%) only asymptomatic AF episodes were recorded. Eleven patients (36.7%) had both types of AF episodes (symptomatic and asymptomatic).  Conclusions The AF recurrence and burden increased in most AF patients during the three-year follow-up period. However, some patients did not suffer any AF recurrence or they presented a decrease in AF burden. Paroxysmal AF clinical profile differs among the AF patients significantly and this indicates that an individualized approach via long-term rhythm monitoring may be of clinical significance, at least in some newly diagnosed AF patients.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D Ziegler ◽  
Efstratios I Charitos

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence or spontaneous conversion to sinus rhythm (SR) are regarded as random events. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that the probability of spontaneous conversion to SR decreases as more time is spent in AF. We attempt to quantify this phenomenon and investigate factors that can affect this probability. Methods: Cardiac rhythm histories of 1195 patients (age 73.0 ± 10.1, follow-up: 349 ± 40 days; 14533 AF episodes) with implantable devices were reconstructed and analyzed. No patients received cardioversion, AF ablation, or any obvious AF therapies during follow-up. Patients with no AF recurrence or continuous AF during follow up were excluded. Hierarchical regression methods were employed to investigate the time course of the probability of rhythm change and factors that influence it. Results: Probabilities of spontaneous conversion from AF to SR (solid blue line) and recurrence of AF in patients with SR (solid red line) are shown in the Figure. For patients in AF , spontaneous conversion probability significantly decreases with time spent in AF and plateaus after ~7 days (dotted blue line). Similarly for patients in SR, increasing time in SR reduces the probability of developing AF (solid red line) and plateaus after ~7 days (dotted red line). Patient age (p<0.001), LVEF (p<0.05) and presence of coronary artery disease (p<0.01) significantly influence the spontaneous conversion probabilities independent from AF burden. Conclusions: Spontaneous SR conversion or AF recurrence diminishes with increasing time spent in AF or SR, respectively, and are influenced by several patient-related factors. These findings suggest that patients should be closely monitored after AF recurrence or SR conversion.


Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 4454-4454
Author(s):  
Alicia Inés Enrico ◽  
Georgina Bendek ◽  
Maria Virginia Prates ◽  
Virginia Guerrero ◽  
Juan Jose Napal ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 4454 Introduction: CML represents 15% all of oncohematologic diseases in adults. IM changed the history of the disease. At one year of treatment, the emblematic IRIS study showed Major Cytogenetic Responses (MCyR) of approximately 87% and Complete Cytogenetic Responses (CCyR) of around 76%, with PFS to accelerated phase or blast crisis of 97.7% and 91.5%, respectively. Objective: To assess treatment characteristics and responses in a group of patients treated with IM in clinical practice. Materials and Method: 113 medical records of patients with CML diagnosed between 1998–2011 from two institutions in the Argentine Republic were retrospectively analyzed. Result: Mean population age was 46 years old (r 18–73) 65 male, 48 female. 97% in chronic phase, the rest in accelerated phase. 31% presented comorbidities at diagnosis. Cytogenetic abnormalities at diagnosis, in addition to the classic t(9:22), included: trisomy 8 and double Philadelphia chromosome in 4 tests. Only 7 patients had qualitative BCR/ABL determined at diagnosis. 25% had received interferon, patients received IM 400 mg and only 2% received 300 or 600 mg doses. 2.6% of patients did not achieve CHR. Cytogenetic responses assessed at any time of treatment were: Major: 12%, Minor 20%, Complete 51%, None 3%, 14% were not assessed. With a mean follow-up time of 46 months, the overall survival was 75%. 10% of patients progressed to BC/AP, 11 % of patients died due to disease-related causes or comorbidities. Conclusions: With a mean follow-up time of 46 months for chronic phase CML, treatment with IM achieved complete cytogenetic responses in 51% of patients, and progression occurred in 10% of patients. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2020 ◽  
pp. 48-53
Author(s):  
Praveen Shukla ◽  
Awadhesh Kumar Sharma ◽  
Biswajit Majumder ◽  
Pritam Kumar Chatterjee ◽  
Vinay Krishna ◽  
...  

Objectives – Non- valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is the most commonly occurring arrhythmia worldwide .Ranolazine is an emerging drug with a ray of hope in the management of NVAF. This is the first large observational study with longer follow up of one year. Methods - It is a hospital based observational prospective study. A total of 100 patients was recruited for the study .The primary objective was to determine the efficacy of ranolazine in converting NVAF to sinus rhythm & the secondary objective was to study epidemiological aspects of NVAF. Results –After 1 month of follow up conversion to normal sinus rhythm was 12% in group A & 6% in group B (6%), it was not significant statistically (Z=1.48p=0.13). After 6 months, conversion to normal sinus rhythm was increased from 12% to 18% in group A which was preserved at 12 months of follow up and statistically significant and higher than that of group B (6.0%) (Z=2.61p=0.009). In predisposing risk factors & other co-morbidities HTN was present in 61%, obesity together with overweight in 37%, smoking in 44%, history of moderate amount of alcohol intake in 35%, history of CVA/TIA in 13%, DM in 11%, CKD in 4%, CAD in 30%, COPD in 20% and congestive heart failure in 15% of the patients. Conclusion- Ranolazine is an effective option when used for rhythm control strategy in NVAF. HTN is the predominant predisposing risk factor.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Goss ◽  
K Rybak ◽  
M Seige ◽  
W Haerer ◽  
B Schuetz ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction The risk of neurovascular and cardiovascular morbidity is substantially increased by undetected atrial fibrillation (AF). Therefore, early detection of AF is crucial to initiate appropriate therapy in persons at risk and may improve outcome. An implantable loop recorder (ILR) can monitor the heart rhythm for up to three years, modern devices provide dedicated algorithms to detect AF. Hypothesis We aimed to investigate the AF detection rate by the use of an ILR in patients after a recent cerebrovascular event (TIA n=137 or stroke n=363) presenting in sinus rhythm and no history of AF in the ambulatory setting by office based cardiologists. Purpose Observational study in patients with no prior diagnosis of AF, who had (presumably thromboembolic) transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke within 12 months and were implanted an ILR in the last 6 months. Follow-up visits every 3 months for 1 year overall. Results In 34 outpatient cardiology centers in Germany, a total of 500 patients were documented (mean age 63.1±12.7 years, 35.4% >70 years; 60.8% males). The qualifying event - diagnosed by neurologists - was a TIA in 137 (27.4%) and a stroke in 363 (72.6%) with typical thromboembolic pattern in NMR imaging (29.2% TIA/45.2% stroke, p<0.001), in CT imaging (7.3% TIA/7.7% stroke, n.s.), in both (6.6% TIA/19.6% stroke, p<0.001). During follow-up, AF was newly detected by the device in TIA patients in 29.9% and in stroke patients in 25.6% (n.s.). The mean screening period until detection of AF with the Reveal LinQ device was 170±134 days in TIA, 145±128 in stroke respectively (n.s.). 95.7% had paroxysmal and 4.3% persistent AF in stroke, TIA patients had 100% paroxysmal AF (n.s.), median duration was 5.0 min in TIA and 5.2 min in stroke, respectively (n.s.). Most AF patients were asymptomatic (68.3% TIA/ 83.9% stroke, p<0.03). The mean CHA2DS2Vasc score in patients with AF was 4.0 and 4.1 in those with TIA and stroke (n.s.), for patients in sinus rhythm 3.7 and 3.9, respectively (n.s.). Arterial hypertension was present in 71.5% with TIA/76.0% with stroke (n.s.), diabetes mellitus in 15.3% with TIA/25.1% with stroke (p<0.05), coronary artery disease in 12.4% with TIA/14.6% with stroke (n.s.), vascular disease in 3.6% with TIA/5.0% with stroke (n.s.). Conclusions In patients in sinus rhythm and no history of AF after a TIA or stroke, during 1-year follow-up AF could be newly detected in a quarter of patients by means of systematic continuous screening with an implantable ECG device. As AF diagnosis usually leads to immediate secondary prevention with long-term anticoagulation, such screening is useful not only in stroke but also in TIA patients and may substantially reduce the risk of recurrent stroke and cardiovascular morbidity. Acknowledgement/Funding SPIDER-AF registry was performed by BNK Service GmbH, Munich (Germany) and supported by Bayer Vital GmbH and Medtronic GmbH in equal parts


2013 ◽  
Vol 109 (02) ◽  
pp. 328-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron Pisters ◽  
Robby Nieuwlaat ◽  
Deirdre Lane ◽  
Harry Crijns ◽  
Gregory Lip

SummaryVitamin K antagonists (e.g. warfarin) are commonly underutilised, due to limitations such as the need for monitoring, in high-risk atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. We therefore aimed to model the potential impact on clinical outcomes in patients with AF with the use of the novel oral anticoagulant (OAC) drugs, apixaban and dabigatran. We identified all high-risk (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2) patients with non-valvular AF and known one-year follow-up from the EuroHeart Survey on AF (EHS-AF). We modelled the expected numbers of clinical events on the novel OACs using published hazard ratios from their respective phase 3 clinical trials and calculated the numbers needed to treat and the mathematical net clinical benefit. Our analysis included 3,400 patients [39% females; mean (SD) age 67 (12) years; CHA2DS2-VASc score 3.0 (1.8)] of which 330 were excluded from the modelling analysis due to concomitant use of OAC and antiplatelet drugs. During one-year follow- up, 108 (3.2%) patients experienced thromboembolism, 51 (1.5%) major bleeds and 146 (4.3%) died. Compared to current treatments (i.e. warfarin, aspirin or nothing) the use of apixaban in highrisk patients would have potentially prevented an additional 17 deaths, 27 strokes and eight major bleeds within this cohort. With use of dabigatran 150 mg BID, 34 strokes could have been prevented and for dabigatran110 mg BID, 16 strokes and six major bleeds would be avoided. Extrapolation of the data from the EHS-AF to the whole of Europe would translate into the prevention of an additional 64,573 major cardiovascular events and deaths each year among patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2, by the use of apixaban, 43,235 with the use of dabigatran 150 mg bid and 27,272 with the use of dabigatran 110 mg bid. In conclusion, based on this modelling exercise, the utilisation of apixaban and dabigatran for thromboprophylaxis could provide a profound annual mathematical net clinical benefit on stroke and major bleeds, in European AF patients.Note: The editorial process for this paper was fully handled by Prof. C. Weber, Editor in Chief.


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