scholarly journals Performance of prediction models for short term outcome in COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a retrospective study

Author(s):  
Paul M.E.L. van Dam ◽  
Noortje Zelis ◽  
Sander M.J. van Kuijk ◽  
Aimée E.M.J.H. Linkens ◽  
Renée R.A.G. Bruggemann ◽  
...  

AbstractIntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a high burden on the healthcare system and demands information on the outcome early after admission to the emergency department (ED). Previously developed prediction models may assist in triaging patients when allocating healthcare resources. We aimed to assess the value of several prediction models when applied to COVID-19 patients in the ED.MethodsAll consecutive COVID-19 patients who visited the ED of a combined secondary/tertiary care center were included. Prediction models were selected based on their feasibility. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, secondary outcomes were 14-day mortality, and a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and admission to the medium care unit (MCU) or the intensive care unit (ICU). The discriminatory performance of the prediction models was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsA total of 403 ED patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. Within 30 days, 95 patients died (23.6%), 14-day mortality was 19.1%. Forty-eight patients (11.9%) were admitted to the MCU, 66 patients (16.4%) to the ICU and 152 patients (37.7%) met the composite endpoint. Eleven models were included: RISE UP score, 4C mortality score, CURB-65, MEWS, REMS, abbMEDS, SOFA, APACHE II, CALL score, ACP index and Host risk factor score. The RISE UP score and 4C mortality score showed a very good discriminatory performance for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83 and 0.84 respectively, 95% CI 0.79-0.88 for both), for 14-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79-0.88, for both) and for the composite outcome (AUC 0.79 and 0.77 respectively, 95% CI 0.75-0.84). The discriminatory performance of the RISE UP score and 4C mortality score was significantly higher compared to that of the other models.ConclusionThe RISE UP score and 4C mortality score have good discriminatory performance in predicting adverse outcome in ED patients with COVID-19. These prediction models can be used to recognize patients at high risk for short-term poor outcome and may assist in guiding clinical decision-making and allocating healthcare resources.

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. e50-e51
Author(s):  
Abhitesh Singh ◽  
Anshul Jain ◽  
Dillip Muduly ◽  
Mahesh Sultania ◽  
Jyoti Ranjan Swain ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Bjorklund ◽  
Emily A. Eismann ◽  
Roger Cornwall

ABSTRACT Background The importance of continuity of care in training is widely recognized; however, a broad-spectrum assessment across all specialties has not been performed. Objective We assessed the continuity of care provided by trainees, following patient consultations in the emergency department (ED) across all specialties at a large pediatric tertiary care center. Methods Medical records were reviewed to identify patients seen in consultation by a resident or fellow trainee in the ED over a 1-year period, and to determine if the patient followed up with the same trainee for the same condition during the next 6 months. Results Resident and fellow trainees from 33 specialties participated in 3400 ED consultations. Approximately 50% (1718 of 3400) of the patients seen in consultation by a trainee in the ED followed up with the same specialty within 6 months, but only 4.1% (70 of 1718) followed up with the same trainee for the same condition. Trainee continuity of care ranged from 0% to 21% among specialties, where specialties with resident clinics (14.4%) have a greater continuity of care than specialties without resident clinics (2.7%, P < .001). Continuity of care did not differ between fellows (4.2%) and residents (4.0%, P = .87), but did differ between postgraduate years for residents (P < .001). Conclusions Trainee continuity of care for ED consultations was low across all specialties and levels of training. If continuity of care is important for patient well-being and trainee education, efforts to improve continuity for trainees must be undertaken.


2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (22) ◽  
pp. 1853-1861
Author(s):  
Nicole M Acquisto ◽  
Rachel F Schult ◽  
Sandra Sarnoski-Roberts ◽  
Jaclyn Wilmarth ◽  
Courtney M C Jones ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose Results of a study to determine the effect of a pharmacist-led opioid task force on emergency department (ED) opioid use and discharge prescriptions are presented. Methods An observational evaluation was conducted at a large tertiary care center (ED volume of 115,000 visits per year) to evaluate selected opioid use outcomes before and after implementation of an ED opioid reduction program by interdisciplinary task force of pharmacists, physicians, and nurses. Volumes of ED opioid orders and discharge prescriptions were evaluated over the entire 25-month study period and during designated 1-month preimplementation and postimplementation periods (January 2017 and January 2018). Opioid order trends were evaluated using linear regression analysis and further investigated with an interrupted time series analysis to determine the immediate and sustained effects of the program. Results From January 2017 to January 2018, ED opioid orders were reduced by 63.5% and discharge prescriptions by 55.8% from preimplementation levels: from 246.8 to 90.1 orders and from 85.3 to 37.7 prescriptions per 1,000 patient visits, respectively. Over the entire study period, there were significant decreases in both opioid orders (β, –78.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], –88.0 to –68.9; R2, 0.93; p < 0.0001) and ED discharge prescriptions (β, –24.4; 95% CI, –27.9 to –20.9; R2, 0.90; p < 0.001). The efforts of the task force had an immediate effect on opioid prescribing practices; results for effect sustainability were mixed. Conclusion A clinical pharmacist–led opioid reduction program in the ED was demonstrated to have positive results, with a more than 50% reduction in both ED opioid orders and discharge prescriptions.


CJEM ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (S1) ◽  
pp. S31-S32
Author(s):  
J. McCallum ◽  
R. Yip ◽  
S. Dhanani ◽  
I. Stiell

Introduction: A significant gap exists between the number of people waiting for an organ and donors. There are currently 1,628 people awaiting organ donation in Ontario alone. In 2018 to date, 310 donors have donated 858 organs. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there were missed donors in the Emergency Department (ED) and by what percent those missed donors would increase organ donation overall. Methods: This was a health records and organ donation database review of all patients who died in the ED at a large academic tertiary care center with 2 campuses and 160,000 visits per year. Patients were included from November 1, 2014 – October 31, 2017. We collected data on demographics, cause of death, and suitability for organ donation. Data was cross-referenced between hospital records and the provincial organ procurement organization called Trillium Gift of Life Network (TGLN) to determine whether patients were appropriately referred for consideration of donation in a timely manner. Potential missed donors were manually screened for suitability according to TGLN criteria. We calculated simple descriptive statistics for demographic data and the primary outcome. The primary outcome was percentage of potential organ donors missed in the Emergency Department (ED). Results: There were 606 deaths in the ED from November 1, 2014 – October 31, 2017. Patients were an average of 71 years old, 353 (58%) were male, and 75 (12%) died of a traumatic cause. TGLN was not contacted in 12 (2%) of cases. During this period there were two donors from the ED and 92 from the ICU. There were ten missed potential donors. They were an average of 67 years, 7 (70%) were male, and 2 (20%) died of a traumatic cause. In all ten cases, patients had withdrawal of life sustaining measures for medical futility prior to TGLN being contacted for consideration of donation. There could have been an addition seven liver, six pancreatic islet, four small bowel, and seven kidney donors. The ten missed ED donors could have increased total donors by 11%. Conclusion: The ED is a significant source of missed organ donors. In all cases of missed organ donation, patients had withdrawal of life sustaining measures prior to TGLN being called. In the future, it is essential that all patients have an organ procurement organization such as TGLN called prior to withdrawal of life sustaining measures to ensure that no opportunity for consideration of organ donation is missed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 128 (8) ◽  
pp. 736-741
Author(s):  
C. Burton Wood ◽  
Brendan P. O’Connell ◽  
Anne C. Lowery ◽  
Marc L. Bennett ◽  
George B. Wanna

Objectives: To analyze hearing outcomes following Type 3 tympanoplasty with stapes columella grafting after canal wall down mastoidectomy and determine disease recurrence rates in patients undergoing this procedure. Methods: This retrospective cohort analysis examines patients undergoing Type 3 tympanoplasty with stapes columella grafting following canal wall down mastoidectomy for cholesteatoma at a tertiary care center from 2005 to 2015. Patient charts were reviewed for demographic data, diagnosis, and operative details. Patients were included in statistical analysis if they were found to have undergone the aforementioned procedure. Evaluation of hearing improvement was made by comparing preoperative air-bone gap (ABG) and ABG at follow-up at 6 months and 1 year postoperatively. Results: Nineteen patients met criteria for this study. Erosion of the otic capsule, posterior fossa plate, or tegmen was noted in 37% of cases, highlighting disease severity. Eighteen (95%) had undergone prior otologic surgery. Mean time to short-term follow-up was 6 ± 3 months. The average short-term ABG was 26 ± 11 dB HL; 26% achieved an ABG <20 dB, and 58% achieved an ABG <30 dB. Fifteen had follow-up at least 1 year postoperatively (mean = 33 ± 16 months). At longer-term follow-up, mean ABG was 25 ± 10 dB HL; 33% achieved an ABG <20 dB, while 66% achieved an ABG <30 dB. Hearing remained stable over time ( P = .52). At date of last clinical follow-up, only 1 (5%) patient had undergone revision for recurrent disease. Conclusion: In some patients undergoing canal wall down mastoidectomy for advanced or recurrent cholesteatoma, Type 3 tympanoplasty with stapes columella grafting yields marginal hearing benefit. This type of reconstruction is a viable option in this challenging patient cohort, particularly as it is associated with low rates of revision surgery.


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