scholarly journals Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza under vaccination scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel A. Acuña-Zegarra ◽  
Mayra Núñez-López ◽  
Andreu Comas-García ◽  
Mario Santana-Cibrian ◽  
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Effective Coverage ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
The One ◽  
Transmission Factors

AbstractThe interaction and possibly interference between viruses infecting a common host population is the problem addressed in this work. We model two viral diseases both of the SIRS type that have similar mechanism of transmission and for which a vaccine exists. The vaccine is characterized by its coverage, induced temporal immunity and efficacy. The population dynamics of both diseases considers infected individuals of each disease and hosts that are susceptible to one but have recovered from the other. We do not incorporate coinfection. We postulate two main transmission factors affecting the effective contact rates: i) that the virus with higher reproduction number can superinfect the one with lower reproduction number and ii) that there is some protection induced by vaccination against the weaker virus that reduces the probability of infection by the stronger virus. Our results indicate that coexistence of the viruses is possible in the long term. The time-dependent effective contact rate may induce either alternating outbreaks of each disease or synchronous outbreaks. We also found the existence of bi-stability triggered by a backward bifurcation, conducive to scenarios where, at the population level, vaccine application may promote persistence of both diseases provided the effective coverage and vaccine efficacy are low.

Effects of goldfish (Carassius auratus) population size and body condition on the transmission of Gyrodactylus kobayashii (Monogenea)

Parasitology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 144 (9) ◽  
pp. 1221-1228 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHUN ZHOU ◽  
HONG ZOU ◽  
SHAN G. WU ◽  
GUI T. WANG ◽  
DAVID J. MARCOGLIESE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Body Condition ◽  
Host Density ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Laboratory Model ◽  
Constant Density ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Population Sizes

SUMMARYField surveys indicate that host population size, rather than density, is the most important determinant of monogenean infection dynamics. To verify this prediction, epidemic parameters were monitored for 70 days at five host population sizes held at constant density using a goldfish – Gyrodactylus kobayashii laboratory model. During the first 20 days, the rate of increase of prevalence and mean abundance was faster in small host populations. Total mean prevalence and total mean abundance throughout the experiment were not significantly affected by host population sizes. Higher transmission rates were detected in larger host populations. However, there were no significant differences in effective contact rates among the five host populations on each sampling day during the first 20 days, implying that contact rates may be saturated at a sufficiently high host density. These results demonstrate that the epidemic occurs more quickly in smaller host populations at the beginning of the experiment. However, the epidemic is independent of the host population size due to the similar effective contact rates in the five population sizes. Significant negative influence of the initial body condition (Kn) of uninfected goldfish on total mean abundance of parasites suggests that susceptibility of hosts is also a determinant of parasite transmission.

scholarly journals Variance and invariance of neuronal long-term representations

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1715) ◽  
pp. 20160161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Clopath ◽  
Tobias Bonhoeffer ◽  
Mark Hübener ◽  
Tobias Rose
Keyword(s):  
Sensory Input ◽  
Cell Activity ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Cell Types ◽  
Sensory Experience ◽  
Homeostatic Plasticity ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Brain Extracts ◽  
The One

The brain extracts behaviourally relevant sensory input to produce appropriate motor output. On the one hand, our constantly changing environment requires this transformation to be plastic. On the other hand, plasticity is thought to be balanced by mechanisms ensuring constancy of neuronal representations in order to achieve stable behavioural performance. Yet, prominent changes in synaptic strength and connectivity also occur during normal sensory experience, indicating a certain degree of constitutive plasticity. This raises the question of how stable neuronal representations are on the population level and also on the single neuron level. Here, we review recent data from longitudinal electrophysiological and optical recordings of single-cell activity that assess the long-term stability of neuronal stimulus selectivities under conditions of constant sensory experience, during learning, and after reversible modification of sensory input. The emerging picture is that neuronal representations are stabilized by behavioural relevance and that the degree of long-term tuning stability and perturbation resistance directly relates to the functional role of the respective neurons, cell types and circuits. Using a ‘toy’ model, we show that stable baseline representations and precise recovery from perturbations in visual cortex could arise from a ‘backbone’ of strong recurrent connectivity between similarly tuned cells together with a small number of ‘anchor’ neurons exempt from plastic changes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Integrating Hebbian and homeostatic plasticity’.

THE COMPUTATION OF REPRODUCTION NUMBERS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT-HOST-ENVIRONMENT CHOLERA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (02) ◽  
pp. 183-231
Author(s):  
ANTONELLA LUPICA ◽  
ABBA B. GUMEL ◽  
ANNUNZIATA PALUMBO
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Host Environment ◽  
Oral Rehydration ◽  
Human Host ◽  
Disease Elimination ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Type Reproduction Number

This study presents a new model for the environment-host-environment transmission dynamics of V. cholerae in a community with an interconnected aquatic pond–river water network. For the case when the human host is the sole target of anti-cholera control and the volume of water in the pond is maximum, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of this result is that cholera can be eliminated from the community if the control strategies implemented can bring (and maintain) [Formula: see text] to a value less than unity. Four scenarios, that represent different interpretations of the role of the V. cholerea pathogen within the environment, were studied. The corresponding basic reproduction numbers were shown to exhibit the same threshold property with respect to the value unity (i.e., if one is less (equal, greater) than unity, then the three others are also less (equal, greater) than unity. Further, it was shown that for the case where anti-cholera control is focused on the human host population, the associated type reproduction number of the model (corresponding to each of the four transmission scenarios considered) is unique. The implication of this result is that the estimate of the effort needed for disease elimination (i.e., the required herd immunity threshold) is unique, regardless of which of the four transmission scenarios is considered. However, when any of the other two bacterial population types in the aquatic environment (i.e., bacterial in the pond or river) is the focus of the control efforts, this study shows that the associated type reproduction number is not unique. Extensive numerical simulations of the model, using a realistic set of parameters from the published literature, show that the community-wide implementation of a strategy that focus on improved water quality, sanitation, and hygiene (known as WASH-only strategy), using the current estimated coverage of 50% and efficacy of 60%, is unable to lead to the elimination of the disease. Such elimination is attainable if the coverage and efficacy are increased (e.g., to 80% and 90%, respectively). Further, elimination can be achieved using a strategy that focuses on oral rehydration therapy and the use of antibiotics to treat the infected humans (i.e., treatment-only strategy) for moderate effectiveness and coverage levels. The combined hybrid WASH-treatment strategy provides far better population-level impact vis a vis disease elimination. This study ranks the three interventions in the following order of population-level effectiveness: combined WASH-treatment, followed by treatment-only and then WASH-only strategy.

scholarly journals Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza

eLife ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishanu Chattopadhyay ◽  
Emre Kiciman ◽  
Joshua W Elliott ◽  
Jeffrey L Shaman ◽  
Andrey Rzhetsky
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Antigenic Drift ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population’s socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus’ antigenic drift over time; (4) the host population’€™s land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.

scholarly journals Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Kochańczyk ◽  
Frederic Grabowski ◽  
Tomasz Lipniacki
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Exponential Phase ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Therapeutic Interventions ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Early Exponential Phase ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Multiplication Coefficient

We constructed a simple Susceptible–Infected–Infectious–Excluded model of the spread of COVID-19. The model is parametrised only by the average incubation period, τ, and two rate parameters: contact rate, rC, and exclusion rate, rE. The rates can be manipulated by non-therapeutic interventions and determine the basic reproduction number, R = rC/rE, and, together with τ, the daily multiplication coefficient at the early exponential phase, β. Initial β determines the reduction of rC required to contain epidemic spread. In the long-term, we consider a scenario based on typical social behaviours, in which rC first decreases in response to a surge of daily new cases, forcing people to self-isolate, and then slowly increases when people gradually accept higher risk. Consequently, initial abrupt epidemic spread is followed by a plateau and slow regression. This scenario, although economically and socially devastating, will grant time to develop, produce, and distribute a vaccine, or at least limit daily cases to a manageable number.

Radioimmunotherapy for treatment of acute myeloid leukaemia and myelodysplastic syndrome

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (03) ◽  
pp. 107-117
Author(s):  
R. G. Meyer ◽  
W. Herr ◽  
A. Helisch ◽  
P. Bartenstein ◽  
I. Buchmann
Keyword(s):  
Acute Myeloid Leukaemia ◽  
Myeloid Leukaemia ◽  
Primary Tumour ◽  
The Other ◽  
Haematopoietic Stem Cell ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Primary Reduction ◽  
The One ◽  
Acute Myeloid

SummaryThe prognosis of patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) has improved considerably by introduction of aggressive consolidation chemotherapy and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (SCT). Nevertheless, only 20-30% of patients with AML achieve long-term diseasefree survival after SCT. The most common cause of treatment failure is relapse. Additionally, mortality rates are significantly increased by therapy-related causes such as toxicity of chemotherapy and complications of SCT. Including radioimmunotherapies in the treatment of AML and myelodyplastic syndrome (MDS) allows for the achievement of a pronounced antileukaemic effect for the reduction of relapse rates on the one hand. On the other hand, no increase of acute toxicity and later complications should be induced. These effects are important for the primary reduction of tumour cells as well as for the myeloablative conditioning before SCT.This paper provides a systematic and critical review of the currently used radionuclides and immunoconjugates for the treatment of AML and MDS and summarizes the literature on primary tumour cell reductive radioimmunotherapies on the one hand and conditioning radioimmunotherapies before SCT on the other hand.

Hidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Capital Management ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The One

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

Interrelationships between municipal spatial policy strategy and airport operation and development. Lodz Airport case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Nikorowicz-Zatorska
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Spatial Management ◽  
The One ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract The present paper focuses on spatial management regulations in order to carry out investment in the field of airport facilities. The construction, upgrades, and maintenance of airports falls within the area of responsibility of local authorities. This task poses a great challenge in terms of organisation and finances. On the one hand, an active airport is a municipal landmark and drives local economic, social and cultural development, and on the other, the scale of investment often exceeds the capabilities of local authorities. The immediate environment of the airport determines its final use and prosperity. The objective of the paper is to review legislation that affects airports and the surrounding communities. The process of urban planning in Lodz and surrounding areas will be presented as a background to the problem of land use management in the vicinity of the airport. This paper seeks to address the following questions: if and how airports have affected urban planning in Lodz, does the land use around the airport prevent the development of Lodz Airport, and how has the situation changed over the time? It can be assumed that as a result of lack of experience, land resources and size of investments on one hand and legislative dissonance and peculiar practices on the other, aviation infrastructure in Lodz is designed to meet temporary needs and is characterised by achieving short-term goals. Cyclical problems are solved in an intermittent manner and involve all the municipal resources, so there’s little left to secure long-term investments.

Aspects of the Evolution of the Romanian Tourists’ Preferences Concerning the Domestic Tourist Destinations

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Aniela Bălăcescu ◽  
Radu Șerban Zaharia
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
On Line ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract Tourist services represent a category of services in which the inseparability of production and consumption, the inability to be storable, the immateriality, and last but not least non-durability, induces in tourism management a number of peculiarities and difficulties. Under these circumstances the development of medium-term strategies involves long-term studies regarding on the one hand the developments and characteristics of the demand, and on the other hand the tourist potential analysis at regional and local level. Although in the past 20 years there has been tremendous growth of on-line booking made by household users, the tour operators agencies as well as those with sales activity continue to offer the specific services for a large number of tourists, that number, in the case of domestic tourism, increased by 1.6 times in case of the tour operators and by 4.44 times in case of the agencies with sales activity. At the same time, there have been changes in the preferences of tourists regarding their holiday destinations in Romania. Started on these considerations, paper based on a logistic model, examines the evolution of the probabilities and scores corresponding to the way the Romanian tourists spend their holidays on the types of tourism agencies, actions and tourist areas in Romania.

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