scholarly journals Impact of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant on the population: A mathematical modeling approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva-Micó
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Scientific Support ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Several SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged around the world and the appearance of other variants depends on many factors. These new variants might have different characteristics that can affect the transmissibility and death rate. The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020 and in some countries the vaccines will not soon be widely available. In this article, we study the impact of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We study different scenarios regarding the transmissibility in order to provide a scientific support for public health policies and bring awareness of potential future situations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct a compartmental mathematical model based on differential equations to study these different scenarios. In this way, we are able to understand how a new, more infectious strain of the virus can impact the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study several metrics related to the possible outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of a higher transmissibility of a new SARS-CoV-2 strain on these metrics. We found that, even if the new variant has the same death rate, its high transmissibility can increase the number of infected people, those hospitalized, and deaths. The simulation results show that health institutions need to focus on increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions and the pace of vaccine inoculation since a new variant with higher transmissibility as, for example, VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7, may cause more devastating outcomes in the population.

scholarly journals Impact of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant on the Population: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Rafael J. Villanueva-Micó
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Scientific Support ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Several SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged around the world, and the appearance of other variants depends on many factors. These new variants might have different characteristics that can affect the transmissibility and death rate. The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020 and in some countries the vaccines will not soon be widely available. For this article, we studied the impact of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We studied different scenarios regarding the transmissibility in order to provide a scientific support for public health policies and bring awareness of potential future situations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We constructed a compartmental mathematical model based on differential equations to study these different scenarios. In this way, we are able to understand how a new, more infectious strain of the virus can impact the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. We studied several metrics related to the possible outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of a higher transmissibility of a new SARS-CoV-2 strain on these metrics. We found that, even if the new variant has the same death rate, its high transmissibility can increase the number of infected people, those hospitalized, and deaths. The simulation results show that health institutions need to focus on increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions and the pace of vaccine inoculation since a new variant with higher transmissibility, such as, for example, VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7, may cause more devastating outcomes in the population.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
Musa Rabiu ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude D. Kong
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Final Epidemic Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Size Relation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAdherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that direct transmission has more effect on the reproduction number and final epidemic size, relative to indirect transmission. In addition, we showed that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.

scholarly journals Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej ◽  
Marc Dhenain
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTEstimating the number of people affected by COVID-19 is crucial in deciding which public health policies to follow. The authorities in different countries carry out mortality counts. We propose that the mortality reported in each country can be used to create an index of the number of actual cases at a given time. The specificity of whether or not deaths are rapid or not by COVID-19 also affects the number of actual cases. The number of days between the declaration of illness and death varies between 12 and 18 days. For a delay of 18 days, and using an estimated mortality rate of 2%, the number of cases in April 2020 in Tunisia would be 5 580 people. The pessimistic scenario predicts 22 320 infected people, and the most optimistic predicts 744 (which is the number of reported cases on April 12, 2020). Modeling the occurrence of COVID-19 cases is critical to assess the impact of policies to prevent the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 8905-8932
Author(s):  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
◽  
Musa Rabiu ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude D. Kong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Final Epidemic Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Size Relation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

<abstract><p>Adherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Influence of Masks Protecting against SARS-CoV-2 on Thermal Comfort

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3315
Author(s):  
Ewa Zender-Świercz ◽  
Marek Telejko ◽  
Beata Galiszewska
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Public Spaces ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Thermal Manikin ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Protective Shield ◽  
Full Face ◽  
The Impact

Due to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, most countries have tightened their public health policies. One way to limit the spread of the virus is to make mouth and nose cover compulsory in public spaces. The article presents the impact of wearing masks on the perception of thermal comfort. The following masks were analysed: FFP2, cotton, medical, PM2.5, half-face protective shield plastic and full-face protective shield plastic. The research was carried out for two scenarios of an ambient temperature: −20 and 30 °C. A thermal manikin was used for the tests. In the case of when a temperature equals 20 °C, the dry masks increase comfort, both general and local, while wet masks reduce comfort. On the other hand, at 30 °C, only wet masks do not increase discomfort. In addition, moist masks require less heat flux to achieve a certain skin temperature. However, it should be remembered that it is not advisable to wet the masks from the health point of view.

scholarly journals Public Health Policies in the Akyem Abuakwa of Ghana (1850-1957)

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-157
Author(s):  
Samuel Adu Gyamfi ◽  
Phinehas Asiamah ◽  
Benjamin Dompreh Darkwa ◽  
Lucky Tomdi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Historical Study ◽  
Colonial Era ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Health History ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
The People ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Akyem Abuakwa is one of the largest states of the Akan ethnic group in Ghana. Notwithstanding its size and important contribution to Ghana’s development, historians have paid little attention in doing academic research on the health history of the people. Using a qualitative method of research, this paper does a historical study on public health policies in Akyem Abuakwa from the 1850s to 1957. We utilised documentary and non-documentary sources to discuss the various public health policies implemented in Akyem Abuakwa from the pre-colonial era to the colonial era. We examined the impact of the policies on the people of Akyem Abuakwa and the various challenges faced by the British colonial administration in their quest to implement public health policies.

scholarly journals Teledescante nº1: polyphony in time of plague

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Maurício De Bonis ◽  
Fábio Scucuglia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Guiding Principle ◽  
Music Making ◽  
The Impact

This report contemplates an instrumental composition as a project for audiovisual production in social isolation, during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the problematization of the impact of the pandemic in music making, solutions were sought that were not only viable as an artistic result but that could also be projected in a purposeful and prospective way in times of humanitarian crisis, of dismal symmetry between capitalist neoliberalism and programmed neglect in public health policies. After a description of the research on the use of art in past pandemics as a guiding principle in the choice of materials, the audiovisual production is detailed. The piece was written in April 2020 as a result of the analysis of a Renaissance motet, which, in turn, was conceived as a tribute to a composer who had perished from the plague and as a palliative against the disease.

scholarly journals From Chronic Disease to Food Poverty: Evidence from Pakistan

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abid A. Burki ◽  
Mushtaq A. Khan ◽  
Sobia Malik
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Disease ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
High Poverty ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Regression Framework ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
Linear Probability ◽  
The Impact

While poverty and its causes have long been studied by economists, the link between chronic disease and food poverty has been a neglected area of research. This article investigates the impact of chronic disease on food poverty by using two rounds of panel data of Pakistan and linear probability regression framework. Chronic disease is defined to include diabetes, arthritis, heart disease, AIDS, cancer and asthma. The regression results show that on average the effect of chronic disease on food poverty is statistically equal to zero, but this effect significantly varies by income groups categorised by three non-income based classifications. We note that the incidence of chronic disease is significantly higher among non-poor when permanent income of the household is incorporated into the model, most notably among individuals coming from low- and middle-income backgrounds. Thus public health policies that seek awareness, prevention and treatment of chronic diseases have the potential to alleviate poverty in a high poverty environment.

scholarly journals Using Implementation Science to Inform and Evaluate Health Policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 50-50
Author(s):  
Julie Bobitt ◽  
Beth Prusaczyk
Keyword(s):  
Implementation Science ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Policy Diffusion ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Dissemination And Implementation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Public health policies can be a tool for the promotion and protection of older adult’s well-being but how can we ensure that policies will be effective and applied as intended? This presentation will discuss how implementation science can be used to both inform and evaluate health policies. Scientific evidence developed by applying dissemination and implementation frameworks can be used to inform policy makers as they develop legislation. When used to evaluate policy, D&I frameworks can be applied to examine policy diffusion, how a state, community, or individual organization chooses to carry out the policy, and the impact that policy has on the intended population. D&I frameworks are an effective way to measure the difference between policy intent and what actually happens when a policy is implemented. Examples of how D&I frameworks have been used to inform and evaluate policy will be shared.

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