scholarly journals Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
Musa Rabiu ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude D. Kong
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Final Epidemic Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Size Relation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAdherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that direct transmission has more effect on the reproduction number and final epidemic size, relative to indirect transmission. In addition, we showed that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 8905-8932
Author(s):  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
◽  
Musa Rabiu ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude D. Kong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Final Epidemic Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Size Relation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

<abstract><p>Adherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of public response on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249456
Author(s):  
Brydon Eastman ◽  
Cameron Meaney ◽  
Michelle Przedborski ◽  
Mohammad Kohandel
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Variable Transmission ◽  
The Impact

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and has since spread quickly around the world. To date, the virus has infected tens of millions of people worldwide, compelling governments to implement strict policies to counteract community spread. Federal, provincial, and municipal governments have employed various public health policies, including social distancing, mandatory mask wearing, and the closure of schools and businesses. However, the implementation of these policies can be difficult and costly, making it imperative that both policy makers and the citizenry understand their potential benefits and the risks of non-compliance. In this work, a mathematical model is developed to study the impact of social behaviour on the course of the pandemic in the province of Ontario. The approach is based upon a standard SEIRD model with a variable transmission rate that depends on the behaviour of the population. The model parameters, which characterize the disease dynamics, are estimated from Ontario COVID-19 epidemiological data using machine learning techniques. A key result of the model, following from the variable transmission rate, is the prediction of the occurrence of a second wave using the most current infection data and disease-specific traits. The qualitative behaviour of different future transmission-reduction strategies is examined, and the time-varying reproduction number is analyzed using existing epidemiological data and future projections. Importantly, the effective reproduction number, and thus the course of the pandemic, is found to be sensitive to the adherence to public health policies, illustrating the need for vigilance as the economy continues to reopen.

scholarly journals Public Health Policies in the Akyem Abuakwa of Ghana (1850-1957)

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-157
Author(s):  
Samuel Adu Gyamfi ◽  
Phinehas Asiamah ◽  
Benjamin Dompreh Darkwa ◽  
Lucky Tomdi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Historical Study ◽  
Colonial Era ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Health History ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
The People ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Akyem Abuakwa is one of the largest states of the Akan ethnic group in Ghana. Notwithstanding its size and important contribution to Ghana’s development, historians have paid little attention in doing academic research on the health history of the people. Using a qualitative method of research, this paper does a historical study on public health policies in Akyem Abuakwa from the 1850s to 1957. We utilised documentary and non-documentary sources to discuss the various public health policies implemented in Akyem Abuakwa from the pre-colonial era to the colonial era. We examined the impact of the policies on the people of Akyem Abuakwa and the various challenges faced by the British colonial administration in their quest to implement public health policies.

scholarly journals Teledescante nº1: polyphony in time of plague

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Maurício De Bonis ◽  
Fábio Scucuglia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Guiding Principle ◽  
Music Making ◽  
The Impact

This report contemplates an instrumental composition as a project for audiovisual production in social isolation, during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the problematization of the impact of the pandemic in music making, solutions were sought that were not only viable as an artistic result but that could also be projected in a purposeful and prospective way in times of humanitarian crisis, of dismal symmetry between capitalist neoliberalism and programmed neglect in public health policies. After a description of the research on the use of art in past pandemics as a guiding principle in the choice of materials, the audiovisual production is detailed. The piece was written in April 2020 as a result of the analysis of a Renaissance motet, which, in turn, was conceived as a tribute to a composer who had perished from the plague and as a palliative against the disease.

scholarly journals Impact of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant on the population: A mathematical modeling approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva-Micó
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Scientific Support ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Several SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged around the world and the appearance of other variants depends on many factors. These new variants might have different characteristics that can affect the transmissibility and death rate. The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020 and in some countries the vaccines will not soon be widely available. In this article, we study the impact of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We study different scenarios regarding the transmissibility in order to provide a scientific support for public health policies and bring awareness of potential future situations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct a compartmental mathematical model based on differential equations to study these different scenarios. In this way, we are able to understand how a new, more infectious strain of the virus can impact the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study several metrics related to the possible outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of a higher transmissibility of a new SARS-CoV-2 strain on these metrics. We found that, even if the new variant has the same death rate, its high transmissibility can increase the number of infected people, those hospitalized, and deaths. The simulation results show that health institutions need to focus on increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions and the pace of vaccine inoculation since a new variant with higher transmissibility as, for example, VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7, may cause more devastating outcomes in the population.

scholarly journals Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej ◽  
Marc Dhenain
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTEstimating the number of people affected by COVID-19 is crucial in deciding which public health policies to follow. The authorities in different countries carry out mortality counts. We propose that the mortality reported in each country can be used to create an index of the number of actual cases at a given time. The specificity of whether or not deaths are rapid or not by COVID-19 also affects the number of actual cases. The number of days between the declaration of illness and death varies between 12 and 18 days. For a delay of 18 days, and using an estimated mortality rate of 2%, the number of cases in April 2020 in Tunisia would be 5 580 people. The pessimistic scenario predicts 22 320 infected people, and the most optimistic predicts 744 (which is the number of reported cases on April 12, 2020). Modeling the occurrence of COVID-19 cases is critical to assess the impact of policies to prevent the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Cohort profile: Actionable Register of Geneva Outpatients with SARS-CoV-2 (ARGOS)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Genecand ◽  
Flora Koegler ◽  
Dan Lebowitz ◽  
Denis Mongin ◽  
Simon Regard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Valuable Resource ◽  
Disease Evolution ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The Actionable Register of Geneva Outpatients with SARS-CoV-2 (ARGOS) is an ongoing prospective cohort created by the Geneva Directorate of Health (GDH). It consists of an operational database compiling all SARS-CoV-2 test results conducted in the Geneva area since late February 2020. While the disease evolution of patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 are now relatively numerous, the same cannot be said for outpatients. This article aims at presenting a comprehensive outpatient cohort in light of the varying public health measures in Geneva, Switzerland, since March 2020. Participants As of July 28, 2020, the database included 58 226 patients, among which 6848 had at least one positive test result for SARS-CoV-2. Among all positive patients, 66.8% were contacted once, and 21% of participants had 3 or more follow-up calls. Participation rate is 96.9%. Data collection is ongoing. Findings to date ARGOS data illustrates the magnitude of COVID-19 pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland, and details a variety of population factors and outcomes. The content of the cohort includes demographic data, comorbidities and risk factors for poor clinical outcome, COVID-19 symptoms, environmental and socio-economic factors, contact tracing data, hospitalizations and deaths. Future plans: The data of this large real-world registry provides a valuable resource for various types of research, such as epidemiological research or policy assessment as it illustrates the impact of public health policies and overall disease burden of COVID-19. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY - ARGOS main strength consists of its large number of cases, representative of all diagnosed cases on a regional level with the primary aim of assessing all cases. - ARGOS involves every tested individual and is not limited to hospitalized patients, thus providing a valuable resource to assess the impact of public health policies and overall disease burden of COVID-19 in a geographically defined population. - To mitigate confounding effects and improve data analysis and interpretation, we present the data according to four policy periods. - This cohort is multicentric as it includes all tests performed in Geneva's hospitals (both public and private), private practices and medical centers. - Due to operational needs, symptoms and comorbidities are self-reported, which may lead to measurement error or misclassification.

scholarly journals The auxílio emergencial and stringent social distancing policies in Brazil: the impact on mobility and non-work travel outside the home

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-135
Author(s):  
Lorena G. Barberia ◽  
Kelly Senters Piazza
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Collaborative Research ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Research Initiative ◽  
Aid Programs ◽  
City State ◽  
The Impact

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to increase physical distancing have been instrumental in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Governments have enacted stringent public health policies that impose limits on mobility outside the household. However, for containment policies to be effective, there is a growing understanding that emergency aid programs must be designed to ensure that the most vulnerable receive financial and in-kind aid resources to support their ability to “stay at home.” In this study, we use survey data from an Oxford  USP-FGV collaborative research initiative to empirically assess the effectiveness of these two policies in reducing mobility with an eye to those at-risk or living in conditions of poverty in eight Brazilian capitals. We learn that, in general, neither stringent public health policies and receipt nor promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial were effective in limiting mobility outside of the home. We do, however, find limited evidence that receipt or promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial marginally limited non-work trips outside of the home, especially in city/state combinations with stringent public health policies. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.

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