Comparative analyses of all FDA EUA-approved rapid antigen tests and RT-PCR for COVID-19 quarantine and surveillance-based isolation
AbstractRapid antigen (RA) tests are being increasingly employed to detect COVID-19 infections in quarantine and surveillance. We conducted a comparative analysis of quarantine durations, testing frequencies, and false-positive rates for all of the 18 RA tests with emergency use authorization (EUA) from the FDA, and an RT-PCR test. For each test, we employed a mathematical model of imminent infections to calculate the effective reproductive number in the context of the test used for quarantine or serial testing. We informed the model with data on test specificity, temporal diagnostic sensitivity, and COVID-19 infectiousness. Our results demonstrate that the relative effectiveness of RA and RT-PCR tests in reducing post-quarantine transmission depends on the quarantine duration and the turnaround time of testing results. For quarantines shorter than five days, RA test on entry to and on exit from quarantine reduced onward transmission more than a single RT-PCR test conducted upon exit. Conducting surveillance via serial RT-PCR testing with a 24-h turnaround time, the minimum testing frequency paired with isolation of positives that is required to suppress the effective reproduction number (RE) below one was found to be every six days. RA tests reduce RE below one when conducted at a minimum frequency that ranges from every six days to every eight days. Our analysis also highlights that the risk of onward transmission during serial testing increases with the delay in obtaining the results. These RA test-specific results are an important component of the tool set for policy decision-making, and demonstrate that judicious selection of an appropriate RA test can supply a viable alternative to RT-PCR in efforts to control the spread of disease.