scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential and Policy Changes in South Carolina, February 2020 - January 2021

Author(s):  
Margaret R. Davies ◽  
Xinyi Hua ◽  
Terrence D. Jacobs ◽  
Gabi I. Wiggill ◽  
Po-Ying Lai ◽  
...  

Introduction: We aimed to examine how public health policies influenced the dynamics of COVID-19 time-varying reproductive number (Rt) in South Carolina from February 26, 2020 to January 1, 2021. Methods: COVID-19 case series (March 6, 2020 - January 10, 2021) were shifted by 9 days to approximate the infection date. We analyzed the effects of state and county policies on Rt using EpiEstim. We performed linear regression to evaluate if per-capita cumulative case count varies across counties with different population size. Results: Rt shifted from 2-3 in March to <1 during April and May. Rt rose over the summer and stayed between 1.4 and 0.7. The introduction of statewide mask mandates was associated with a decline in Rt (-15.3%; 95% CrI, -13.6%, -16.8%), and school re-opening, an increase by 12.3% (95% CrI, 10.1%, 14.4%). Less densely populated counties had higher attack rate (p<0.0001). Conclusion: The Rt dynamics over time indicated that public health interventions substantially slowed COVID-19 transmission in South Carolina, while their relaxation may have promoted further transmission. Policies encouraging people to stay home, such as closing non-essential businesses, were associated with Rt reduction, while policies that encouraged more movement, such as re-opening schools, were associated with Rt increase.

BMC Medicine ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng Jiang ◽  
Michael Livingston ◽  
Robin Room ◽  
Yong Gan ◽  
Dallas English ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Although long-term alcohol and tobacco use have widely been recognised as important risk factors for cancer, the impacts of alcohol and tobacco health policies on cancer mortality have not been examined in previous studies. This study aims to estimate the association of key alcohol and tobacco policy or events in Australia with changes in overall and five specific types of cancer mortality between the 1950s and 2013. Methods Annual population-based time-series data between 1911 and 2013 on per capita alcohol and tobacco consumption and head and neck (lip, oral cavity, pharynx, larynx and oesophagus), lung, breast, colorectum and anus, liver and total cancer mortality data from the 1950s to 2013 were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Cancer Council Victoria, the WHO Cancer Mortality Database and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. The policies with significant relations to changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption were identified in an initial model. Intervention dummies with estimated lags were then developed based on these key alcohol and tobacco policies and events and inserted into time-series models to estimate the relation of the particular policy changes with cancer mortality. Results Liquor licence liberalisation in the 1960s was significantly associated with increases in the level of population drinking and thereafter of male cancer mortality. The introduction of random breath testing programs in Australia after 1976 was associated with a reduction in population drinking and thereafter in cancer mortality for both men and women. Meanwhile, the release of UK and US public health reports on tobacco in 1962 and 1964 and the ban on cigarette ads on TV and radio in 1976 were found to have been associated with a reduction in Australian tobacco consumption and thereafter a reduction in mortality from all cancer types except liver cancer. Policy changes on alcohol and tobacco during the 1960s–1980s were associated with greater changes for men than for women, particularly for head and neck, lung and colorectum cancer sites. Conclusion This study provides evidence that some changes to public health policies in Australia in the twentieth century were related to the changes in the population consumption of alcohol and tobacco, and in subsequent mortality from various cancers over the following 20 years.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Komaroff ◽  
A A Belhouchet

Abstract Background Was the world prepared to face the pandemic with a standard strategy? Objectives To evaluate the association between public health interventions against the COVID-19 outbreak and the outcome. Methods The observational study included data on incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases (outcome) and public health non-pharmaceutical interventions (exposure) from five countries: France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and the USA, December 31, 2019 through April 12, 2020. The public health measures were grouped into five categories: lockdown, movement restrictions, public health measures, social (including social distancing) and economic measures, and use of facial mask. The multiple linear regressions were utilized to test the hypothesis that implementation of some public health measures was associated with the change in the incident number of COVID-19 cases, 2-sided, α = 0.05. Results The incidence of COVID-19 would be significantly greater without lockdown (1.89 times, p-value &lt;.0001), public health and economic measures (25.17, p-value &lt;.0001), and using masks (11.93, p-value=0.002), assuming that all other public health policies are the same. The effectiveness increases with earlier time of implementation. Among considered countries, South Korea was the most efficacious, where all measures were statistically significantly efficacious (p-value &lt;0.05). Conclusions The findings demonstrate an association between public health measures and the outcome. The experience from South Korea should be studied further as the most effective non-pharmacological approach to fight the disease. This paper is the first step to develop the standardized approach utilizing the public health interventions to be applied effectively to the globe population. Key messages the most effective measures to control the COVID-19, and future outbreaks. The effect of particular measure varied by country and time of implementation.


Author(s):  
Ruth R. Faden ◽  
Sirine Shebaya

Public health policies sometimes make demands on individuals who do not stand to benefit from the policies, and they sometimes interfere with liberty even when they do benefit the individuals in question. In such instances, a moral justification for a public health intervention is required. This chapter sets forth five justifications for public health interventions: (1) overall benefit, (2) collective action and efficiency, (3) fairness in the distribution of burdens, (4) prevention of harm (the harm principle), and (5) paternalism. The chapter discusses each justification in turn, posits that often more than one justification applies to a given policy, and argues against frameworks that place disproportionate attention on conflicts between liberty and health.


2021 ◽  
pp. 126-156
Author(s):  
James Wilson

This chapter addresses how to prioritize public health policies. Public health interventions need to be justifiable to individuals, but designing approaches to prioritization that are adequately justifiable to individuals can be extremely difficult. One tool for clarifying the problem, which has been widely explored in the philosophical literature, is the idea of a claim—where the strength of an individual’s claim depends on features such as how badly off they are, their capacity to benefit, the time at which their need arises, and whether the bad that will befall them is certain or merely possible. The chapter argues that it is mistaken to think that there is a single and uniquely correct way of measuring claims. Approaches to prioritization need to be pluralistic, and need to reflect on the measures most appropriate for a particular policy challenge.


JAMIA Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Peng ◽  
Rowland W Pettit ◽  
Christopher I Amos

Abstract Objectives We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations. Materials and methods Our simulator simulates the entire course of infection and transmission of the virus among individuals in heterogeneous populations, subject to operations and influences, such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and community infection. It provides command-line and Jupyter notebook interfaces and a plugin system for user-defined operations. Results The simulator provides quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreaks in a variety of scenarios and assists the development of public health policies, risk-reduction operations, and emergency response plans. Discussion Our simulator is powerful, flexible, and customizable, although successful applications require realistic estimation and robustness analysis of population-specific parameters. Conclusion Risk assessment and continuity planning for COVID-19 outbreaks are crucial for the continued operation of many organizations. Our simulator will be continuously expanded to meet this need.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R S Caló ◽  
B S N Souza ◽  
N D Galvão ◽  
R A G Souza ◽  
J C S Oliveira ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer has been one of the cancers that most contributed to mortality, in both sexes in the world. In Brazil, cancer is among the top five causes of death and colorectal cancer is ranked on the fifth position. Of the Federative Units belonging to the Legal Amazon, Mato Grosso stands out for the higher adjusted incidence of colorectal cancer for both sexes. Thus, the objective is to characterize deaths from colorectal cancer, according to sociodemographic variables in Mato Grosso from 2000 to 2016. Methods A descriptive study was carried out, using data from the Mortality Information System, made available by the Department of Health of the Mato Grosso State. Deaths of all ages were selected, whose basic cause was identified by the codes from the International Classification of Diseases: (C.18) colon cancer, (C.19) rectosigmoid junction cancer, (C.20) rectal cancer or (C.21) anus cancer. Results Between 2000 and 2016, 31,607 deaths from cancer were registered. Of these, 1,750 (5.6%) were due to colorectal cancer. An increased number of deaths was observed at the end of the period, with a variation from 46 deaths in 2000 from 173 in 2016. Highest frequency was verified in men (51.3%), people aged 60 years or older (59.7%), black (54.6%), married (52.3%) and those with primary education (55.2%). According to Brazilian occupation classification options or those answers filled out on the death certificate, highest frequency were for “Retired” (26.2%), “Housewife” (23.1%), Agricultural/Forestry and Fisheries” (11.3%) and “Production of Industrial Goods and Services” (10.3%). Conclusions This study evidenced the increased number of deaths due to colorectal cancer in Mato Grosso State, and identified priority groups for interventions through public health policies which should include screening and early diagnosis to cope with the disease. Key messages Evidenced the increased number of deaths due to colorectal cancer in Mato Grosso State. Identified priority groups for interventions through public health policies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-203
Author(s):  
Nathan Genicot

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to the massive development and use of health indicators. Drawing on the history of international public health and of the management of infectious disease, this paper attempts to show that the normative power acquired by metrics during the pandemic can be understood in light of two rationales: epidemiological surveillance and performance assessment. On the one hand, indicators are established to evaluate and rank countries’ responses to the outbreak; on the other, the evolution of indicators has a direct influence on the content of public health policies. Although quantitative data are an absolute necessity for coping with such disasters, it is critical to bear in mind the inherent partiality and precarity of the information provided by health indicators. Given the growing importance of normative quantitative devices during the pandemic, and assuming that their influence is unlikely to decrease in the future, they call for close scrutiny.


The Lancet ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 390 ◽  
pp. S12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Thomson ◽  
Frances Hillier-Brown ◽  
Adam Todd ◽  
Courtney McNamara ◽  
Tim Huijits ◽  
...  

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