scholarly journals A nationwide deep learning pipeline to predict stroke and COVID-19 death in atrial fibrillation

Author(s):  
Alex Handy ◽  
Angela Wood ◽  
Cathie Sudlow ◽  
Christopher Tomlinson ◽  
Frank Kee ◽  
...  

Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) models trained on long-term patient trajectories held as medical codes in electronic health records (EHR) have the potential to improve disease prediction. Anticoagulant prescribing decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) offer a use case where the benchmark stroke risk prediction tool (CHA2DS2-VASc) could be meaningfully improved by including more information from a patient's medical history. In this study, we design and build the first DL and ML pipeline that uses the routinely updated, linked EHR data for 56 million people in England accessed via NHS Digital to predict first ischaemic stroke in people with AF, and as a secondary outcome, COVID-19 death. Our pipeline improves first stroke prediction in AF by 17% compared to CHA2DS2-VASc (0.61 (0.57-0.65) vs 0.52 (0.52-0.52) area under the receiver operating characteristics curves, 95% confidence interval) and provides a generalisable, opensource framework that other researchers and developers can build on.

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laila Rasmy ◽  
Yang Xiang ◽  
Ziqian Xie ◽  
Cui Tao ◽  
Degui Zhi

AbstractDeep learning (DL)-based predictive models from electronic health records (EHRs) deliver impressive performance in many clinical tasks. Large training cohorts, however, are often required by these models to achieve high accuracy, hindering the adoption of DL-based models in scenarios with limited training data. Recently, bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) and related models have achieved tremendous successes in the natural language processing domain. The pretraining of BERT on a very large training corpus generates contextualized embeddings that can boost the performance of models trained on smaller datasets. Inspired by BERT, we propose Med-BERT, which adapts the BERT framework originally developed for the text domain to the structured EHR domain. Med-BERT is a contextualized embedding model pretrained on a structured EHR dataset of 28,490,650 patients. Fine-tuning experiments showed that Med-BERT substantially improves the prediction accuracy, boosting the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) by 1.21–6.14% in two disease prediction tasks from two clinical databases. In particular, pretrained Med-BERT obtains promising performances on tasks with small fine-tuning training sets and can boost the AUC by more than 20% or obtain an AUC as high as a model trained on a training set ten times larger, compared with deep learning models without Med-BERT. We believe that Med-BERT will benefit disease prediction studies with small local training datasets, reduce data collection expenses, and accelerate the pace of artificial intelligence aided healthcare.


Author(s):  
Natalia S. Mescherina ◽  
Elena M. Khardikova ◽  
Igor A. Saraev

The review presents the key provisions of the recommendations of the Russian society of cardiology and the guidelines of the European society of cardiology for the diagnosis and treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF), updated in 2020. The recommendations clearly state the requirements for atrial fibrillation diagnosis verification, and propose an approach to the formation of a complex characteristic of the disease in four positions, which is designated as 4S-AF (Stroke risk, Symptom severity, Severity of AF burden, Substrate severity). The authors analyzed the strategy "CC To ABC" (Confirm AF, Characterize AF, Treat AF: the ABC pathway) proposed by European experts, the issues of modern terminology and requirements for verifying the diagnosis of AF, complex characteristics of the disease and stratification of the risk of stroke and bleeding, a new ABC approach in the treatment of AF, where A is anticoagulant prevention of thromboembolic complications, B is the control of symptoms of the disease and C is the detection and treatment of comorbid pathology. The General principles that have changed in comparison with the previous versions of guidelines of 2016 on the initiation and tactics of anticoagulant therapy, pharmacological and non-drug cardioversion, catheter ablation in patients with AF, affecting the prognosis and outcomes in patients with AF, are outlined. It is emphasized that the pattern of atrial fibrillation (first diagnosed, paroxysmal, persistent, long-term persistent, permanent) should not determine the indications for anticoagulant prevention. The solution to this issue is determined by the level of risk according to the CHA2DS2-VASc scale. The introduction of the considered methods of diagnosis and treatment of AF into clinical practice will optimize the burden on the health care system and reduce the costs associated with the burden of AF.


Author(s):  
José Miguel Rivera‐Caravaca ◽  
Vanessa Roldán ◽  
María Asunción Esteve‐Pastor ◽  
Mariano Valdés ◽  
Vicente Vicente ◽  
...  

Circulation ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 140 (25) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Noseworthy ◽  
Elizabeth S. Kaufman ◽  
Lin Y. Chen ◽  
Mina K. Chung ◽  
Mitchell S.V. Elkind ◽  
...  

The widespread use of cardiac implantable electronic devices and wearable monitors has led to the detection of subclinical atrial fibrillation in a substantial proportion of patients. There is evidence that these asymptomatic arrhythmias are associated with increased risk of stroke. Thus, detection of subclinical atrial fibrillation may offer an opportunity to reduce stroke risk by initiating anticoagulation. However, it is unknown whether long-term anticoagulation is warranted and in what populations. This scientific statement explores the existing data on the prevalence, clinical significance, and management of subclinical atrial fibrillation and identifies current gaps in knowledge and areas of controversy and consensus.


2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
W.Y Ding ◽  
M Proietti ◽  
G Boriani ◽  
F Marin ◽  
C Blomstrom-Lundqvist ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Current classification systems recommended by major international guidelines are based on a single domain of atrial fibrillation (AF): temporal pattern, symptom severity or underlying comorbidity. Lack of integration between these various elements limits our approach to patients with AF and acts as a barrier against the delivery of better holistic care. The 4S-AF classification scheme was recently introduced as a means for the characterisation of patients with AF. It comprises of 4 domains: stroke risk (St), symptoms (Sy), severity of AF burden (Sb) and substrate (Su). We sought to examine the implementation of the 4S-AF scheme in the EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry and effects of individual domains on outcomes in AF. Methods Patients with AF from 250 centres across 27 participating European countries were included. All patients were over 18 years old and had electrocardiographic confirmation of AF within 12 months prior to enrolment. Data on demographics and comorbidities were collected at baseline. Individual domains of the 4S-AF scheme were assessed using the CHA2DS2-VASc score (St), European Heart Rhythm Association classification (Sy), temporal classification of AF (Sb), and cardiovascular risk factors and the degree of left atrial enlargement (Su). Each of these domains were used during multivariable cox regression analysis. Results A total of 6321 patients were included in the present analysis, corresponding to 57.0% of the original cohort of 11096 patients. The median age of patients was 70 (interquartile range [IQR] 62–77) years with 2615 (41.4%) females. Among these patients, 528 (8.4%) had low stroke risk (St=0), 3002 (47.5%) no or mild symptoms (Sy=0), 2558 (40.5%) newly diagnosed or paroxysmal AF (Sb=0), and 322 (5.1%) no cardiovascular risk factors or left atrial enlargement (Su=0). Median follow-up was 24 months. Using multivariable cox regression analysis, independent predictors of all-cause mortality were (St) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.21 [95% CI, 2.60–25.9]), (Sb) (aHR 1.21 [95% CI, 1.08–1.35]) and (Su) (aHR 1.27 [95% CI, 1.14–1.41]). For cardiovascular mortality and any thromboembolic event, only (Su) (aHR 1.73 [95% CI, 1.45–2.06]) and (Sy) (aHR 1.29 [95% CI, 1.00–1.66]) were statistically important, respectively. None of the domains were independently linked to ischaemic stroke or major bleeding. Conclusion Overall, we demonstrated that the 4S-AF scheme may be used to provide clinical characterisation of patients with AF using routinely collected data, and each of the domains within the 4S-AF scheme were independently associated with adverse long-term outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and/or any thromboembolic event. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.


Author(s):  
Radosław Litwinowicz ◽  
Magdalena Bartus ◽  
Piotr Ceranowicz ◽  
Bogusław Kapelak ◽  
Dhanunjaya Lakkireddy ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Fan Lin ◽  
Fei Ma ◽  
Yuting Chen ◽  
Daowen Wang ◽  
...  

SummaryBackgroundWith the increasing demand for atrial fibrillation (AF) screening, clinicians spend a significant amount of time in identifying the AF signals from massive electrocardiogram (ECG) data in long-term dynamic ECG monitoring. In this study, we aim to reduce clinicians’ workload and promote AF screening by using artificial intelligence (AI) to automatically detect AF episodes and identify AF patients in 24 h Holter recording.MethodsWe used a total of 22 979 Holter recordings (24 h) from 22 757 adult patients and established accurate annotations for AF by cardiologists. First, a randomized clinical cohort of 3 000 recordings (1 500 AF and 1 500 non-AF) from 3000 patients recorded between April 2012 and May 2020 was collected and randomly divided into training, validation and test sets (10:1:4). Then, a deep-learning-based AI model was developed to automatically detect AF episode using RR intervals and was tested with the test set. Based on AF episode detection results, AF patients were automatically identified by using a criterion of at least one AF episode of 6 min or longer. Finally, the clinical effectiveness of the model was verified with an independent real-world test set including 19 979 recordings (1 006 AF and 18 973 non-AF) from 19 757 consecutive patients recorded between June 2020 and January 2021.FindingsOur model achieved high performance for AF episode detection in both test sets (sensitivity: 0.992 and 0.972; specificity: 0.997 and 0.997, respectively). It also achieved high performance for AF patient identification in both test sets (sensitivity:0.993 and 0.994; specificity: 0.990 and 0.973, respectively). Moreover, it obtained superior and consistent performance in an external public database.InterpretationOur AI model can automatically identify AF in long-term ECG recording with high accuracy. This cost-effective strategy may promote AF screening by improving diagnostic effectiveness and reducing clinical workload.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched Google Scholar and PubMed for research articles on artificial intelligence-based diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) published in English between Jan 1, 2016 and Aug 1, 2021, using the search terms “deep learning” OR “deep neural network” OR “machine learning” OR “artificial intelligence” AND “atrial fibrillation”. We found that most of the previous deep learning models in AF detection were trained and validated on benchmark datasets (such as the PhysioNet database, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beth Israel Hospital AF database or Long-Term AF database), in which there were less than 100 patients or the recordings contained only short ECG segments (30-60s). Our search did not identify any articles that explored deep neural networks for AF detection in large real-world dataset of 24 h Holter recording, nor did we find articles that can automatically identify patients with AF in 24 h Holter recording.Added value of this studyFirst, long-term Holter monitoring is the main method of AF screening, however, most previous studies of automatic AF detection mainly tested on short ECG recordings. This work focused on 24 h Holter recording data and achieved high accuracy in detecting AF episodes. Second, AF episodes detection did not automatically transform to AF patient identification in 24 h Holter recording, since at present, there is no well-recognized criterion for automatically identifying AF patient. Therefore, we established a criterion to identify AF patients by use of at least one AF episode of 6 min or longer, as this condition led to significantly increased risk of thromboembolism. Using this criterion, our method identified AF patients with high accuracy. Finally, and more importantly, our model was trained on a randomized clinical dataset and tested on an independent real-world clinical dataset to show great potential in clinical application. We did not exclude rare or special cases in the real-world dataset so as not to inflate our AF detection performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to automatically identifies both AF episodes and AF patients in 24 h Holter recording of large real-world clinical dataset.Implications of all the available evidenceOur deep learning model automatically identified AF patient with high accuracy in 24 h Holter recording and was verified in real-world data, therefore, it can be embedded into the Holter analysis system and deployed at the clinical level to assist the decision making of Holter analysis system and clinicians. This approach can help improve the efficiency of AF screening and reduce the cost for AF diagnosis. In addition, our RR-interval-based model achieved comparable or better performance than the raw-ECG-based method, and can be widely applied to medical devices that can collect heartbeat information, including not only the multi-lead and single-lead Holter devices, but also other wearable devices that can reliably measure the heartbeat signals.


EP Europace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Chew ◽  
Jonathan P Piccini

Abstract Catheter ablation is superior to antiarrhythmic therapy for the reduction of symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF), recurrence, and burden. The possibility of a true ‘rhythm’ control strategy with catheter ablation has re-opened the debate on rate vs. rhythm control and the subsequent impact on stroke risk. Some observation studies suggest that successful AF catheter ablation and maintenance of sinus rhythm are associated with a decrease in stroke risk, while the CABANA trial had demonstrated no apparent reduction. Other observational studies have demonstrated increased stroke risk when oral anticoagulation (OAC) is discontinued after catheter ablation. When and in whom OAC can be discontinued after ablation will need to be determined in properly conducted randomized control trials. In this review article, we discuss our current understanding of the interactions between AF, stroke, and anticoagulation following catheter ablation. Specifically, we discuss the evidence for the long-term anticoagulation following successful catheter ablation, the potential for OAC discontinuation with restoration of sinus rhythm, and novel approaches to anticoagulation management post-ablation.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel M Kaplan ◽  
Paul D Ziegler ◽  
Jodi L Koehler ◽  
Sean Landman ◽  
Shantanu Sarkar ◽  
...  

Introduction: Current guideline recommendations for oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are based on CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score alone. In patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs), it is poorly understood how the interaction between AF duration and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score influence the decision to prescribe OAC. Methods: Data from the Optum® de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset were linked to the Medtronic CareLink database of CIEDs. An index date was assigned as the later of 6 months after device implant or 1 year after EHR data availability. CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score was assessed via EHR data prior to the index date. Maximum daily AF burden (No AF, 6 minutes-23.5 hours, and >23.5 hours) was assessed over the 6 months prior to index date. OAC prescription rates were computed prior to the index date as a function of both AF duration and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. Results: A total of 35,779 patients with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores ≥1 were identified, including 8,581 who were prescribed OAC and 27,198 not prescribed OAC during the observation period. The overall OAC prescription rate among the subset of 12,938 patients with device-detected AF >6 minutes was 36.7% and the rate was nearly 60% higher for patients with a maximum daily AF burden >23.5 hours (45.4%) compared to those with 6 minutes-23.5 hours (28.7%). OAC prescription rates increased monotonically with both increasing AF duration and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, reaching a maximum of 67.2% for patients with AF >23.5 hours and a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥5 (Table). Conclusion: In contrast with guideline recommendations, real-world prescription of OAC increased with both increasing duration of AF and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. This mirrors recent evidence demonstrating that stroke risk also increases with both of these features and highlights the need for further research into the role of AF duration, stroke risk, and the need for anticoagulation in patients with devices capable of long-term AF monitoring.


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