scholarly journals Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudi Li ◽  
David Wilson ◽  
Ralph Grundel ◽  
Steven Campbell ◽  
Joseph Knight ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Tree Canopy ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Karner Blue Butterfly ◽  
Blue Butterfly

The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis), an endangered species in decline due to multiple factors, including habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population dynamics and distribution of the Karner blue (Kbb) is necessary for developing adaptive. Demographic models generally used for insect populations are often either density-dependent or applied to population presence-absence data in a density-independent manner. In contrast, we used scale-based, mixed density-dependent and density-independent (hereafter “endo-exogenous”) models for the Kbb, based on long-term count data of abundance during flight periods, to understand how different environmental variables, including climate, affected Kbb extinction risk through the middle of the 21st century. Our endo-exogenous models showed that density-dependent and environmental variables, including climate, topography, and tree canopy coverage, were essential drivers of Kbb population dynamics. We also found that Kbb’s response to climate differed between the species’ two annual generations and across its range: higher temperature and precipitation in summer generally benefited the second-generation populations, whereas there were uncertainties of the effects on the populations in different ecoregions during the first generation. These results imply that population-specific biotic/abiotic factors need to be incorporated into plans to manage the recovery of Kbb under climate change.

Population Dynamics and Stability

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Post
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Environmental Variation ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Competitive Interactions ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Dependent Processes

This chapter examines the implications of climate change for population dynamics and stability. Population dynamics, or the variation in abundance of a population through time, can be decomposed into two components: density-dependent and density-independent processes. Density-dependent processes are those involving competitive interactions among members of the same species within the same population that influence survival and reproduction. Density-independent processes are those that do not involve interactions with other members of the same species in the same population but rather owe to external factors such as environmental variation. It is this latter set of processes that has relevance to climate change, though density dependence certainly has a role to play in the response of populations to climate change.

scholarly journals Climate and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple high-Arctic ecosystem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Fauteux ◽  
Audun Stien ◽  
Nigel Yoccoz ◽  
Eva Fuglei ◽  
Rolf Ims
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Food Web ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Food Web Structure ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
The Impact

The strikingly diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals, ranging from high-amplitude, multi-annual cycles to relatively stable dynamics, have puzzled ecologists for a century. Theory predicts that this diversity is shaped by density-dependent food web interactions and stochastic weather events. Recent disrupted cycles through amplitude dampening have been attributed to climate change. However, empirical testing has been hampered by the complexity of the food webs in which these herbivores normally are found. Here we analyze population dynamics of a grazing vole species in a uniquely simple high-Arctic food web without top-down regulation. In accordance with theory, the population dynamics was mostly ruled by overcompensatory density-dependence in winter that without environmental stochasticity would have yielded seasonality driven high-amplitude 2-year cycles. In this simple food web, rain-on-snow events disrupted cyclicity, but not through amplitude dampening. Our case study highlights how food web structure may modify the impact of climate change on population dynamics.

scholarly journals Deep-time climate legacies affect origination rates of marine genera

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (36) ◽  
pp. e2105769118
Author(s):  
Gregor H. Mathes ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling ◽  
Manuel J. Steinbauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Fragmentation ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Allopatric Speciation ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Relationship Of

Biodiversity dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay between current conditions and historic legacy. The interaction of short- and long-term climate change may mask the true relationship of evolutionary responses to climate change if not specifically accounted for. These paleoclimate interactions have been demonstrated for extinction risk and biodiversity change, but their importance for origination dynamics remains untested. Here, we show that origination probability in marine fossil genera is strongly affected by paleoclimate interactions. Overall, origination probability increases by 27.8% [95% CI (27.4%, 28.3%)] when a short-term cooling adds to a long-term cooling trend. This large effect is consistent through time and all studied groups. The mechanisms of the detected effect might be manifold but are likely connected to increased allopatric speciation with eustatic sea level drop caused by sustained global cooling. We tested this potential mechanism through which paleoclimate interactions can act on origination rates by additionally examining a proxy for habitat fragmentation. This proxy, continental fragmentation, has a similar effect on origination rates as paleoclimate interactions, supporting the importance of allopatric speciation through habitat fragmentation in the deep-time fossil record. The identified complex nature of paleoclimate interactions might explain contradictory conclusions on the relationship between temperature and origination in the previous literature. Our results highlight the need to account for complex interactions in evolutionary studies both between and among biotic and abiotic factors.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species

Diversity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 312
Author(s):  
Alexandra Evans ◽  
Sam Janssens ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Orchid Species ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Population Demographic ◽  
The Impact

Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

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