scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species

Diversity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 312
Author(s):  
Alexandra Evans ◽  
Sam Janssens ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Orchid Species ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Population Demographic ◽  
The Impact

Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12001
Author(s):  
Jinbo Fu ◽  
Linlin Zhao ◽  
Changdong Liu ◽  
Bin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Sousa Chinensis ◽  
The Impact

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1770-1781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Millon ◽  
Steve J. Petty ◽  
Brian Little ◽  
Olivier Gimenez ◽  
Thomas Cornulier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Demographic Study ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Yadong Xu ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Huiru Zhao ◽  
Meiling Yang ◽  
Yuqi Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Three Indicator Galliformes Species in The Northern Highlands of Pakistan

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Babar Zahoor ◽  
Xuehua Liu ◽  
Melissa Songer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Forested Landscapes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northern Highlands

Abstract Global temperatures are predicted to rise from between 1.4 to 5.8°C by 21st century, which could result in a 20 to 30% extinction of species. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) all the three species would be negatively affected by the climate change in 2050 and in 2070. (ii) Under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (iii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to lose over one quarter in 2050 and one-third by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iv) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 m to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily >3000 m in the future. The proposed implications such as establishment and upgradation of the protected areas, ban on hunting, timber mafia and temporary settlements of the local people in the forested landscapes should be under special consideration to mitigate the impact of climate change.

Climate Change Issues and Challenges in the Western Himalaya:Its Impact on the Plant-diversity, Livelihood and Mitigation Strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-80
Author(s):  
Kuldeep Singh Dogra ◽  
◽  
Sushmita Uniyal ◽  
Kumar Ambrish ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Diversity ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Wild Plants ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Indian Western Himalaya has a rich plant diversity/ bio-resources due to the large variations in the altitude (300 to 6000 ms) and climatic conditions from tropical, temperate to alpine. The paper sheds light on the issues and challenges of climate change in the Western Himalaya; its impact on the plant diversity (wild plants, crops, fruits); loss of plant diversity and livelihood of the local communities; impact on the phenology of plant species; possible mitigation strategies to combat the impact of climate change. The Western Himalayan region has a rich diversity of plant diversity or bio resources. These bio resources (wild plants, crops, fruits) have been used by the local communities in the form of traditional medicines and foods from pre-historic periods or since the settlement of human communities in this region. These communities used these bio-resources as a source of income by their cultivation and selling in the markets. They are also involved in the traditional agriculture and horticulture practices and for that dependent on the climatic conditions (rate of precipitation, temperature, humidity) throughout the year. Hence stable environment conditions a pre requisite for better production and productivity. But in the last 100 years an increased in the temperature on earth brought large variation in the climate of Himalayan region too. The extreme climatic conditions will make Himalayan ecosystem more fragile, less productive and more prone towards disasters or natural calamities. Long term planning is required to understand the impact of climate change in the Western Himalaya along with some new strategies to mitigate its impact.

Climate disparity versus risk management: destination demand analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 560-568
Author(s):  
Parikshat Singh Manhas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Travel Decisions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between tourism and climate change and, hence, to understand the impact of climate change on tourist destinations. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual analysis of secondary data was extracted and analyzed. The framework and policy implications for the study were obtained from online secondary data and by interaction with representatives of a state authority. Findings The findings from the study show that the impact of climate change on tourism is likely to manifest itself in a number of different ways according to local conditions. Climate and weather are connected with tourism and recreational activities. The paper shows the importance of climate for tourism because climate itself is an attraction. Climate and weather are among the most important attributes to influence tourist decision-making. Changing the climate and weather conditions of any destination may affect the tourists’ comfort and travel decisions, and due to the changing demand pattern and tourist flows, tourism businesses and host communities suffer. Cancellation of any trip due to bad weather causes dissatisfaction and those affected may avoid visiting the destination again. Temperature is also one of the most important climate variables in the analysis of tourism demands as it affects comfort. Originality/value This original piece of work suggests that climatic conditions control destination choice and this influences the tourism demands for a given destination.

scholarly journals Predicted impact of climate change on the distribution of the Critically Endangered golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca) in Madagascar

2022 ◽  
pp. 5-13
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Forest Patches ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Population Distributions ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on Malagasy amphibians remains poorly understood. Equally, deforestation, fragmentation, and lack of connectivity between forest patches may leave vulnerable species isolated in habitat that no longer suits their environmental or biological requirements. We assess the predicted impact of climate change by 2085 on the potential distribution of a Critically Endangered frog species, the golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca), that is confined to a small area of the central rainforest of Madagascar. We identify potential population distributions and climatically stable areas. Results suggest a potential south-eastwardly shift away from the current range and a decrease in suitable habitat from 2110 km2 under current climate to between 112 km2 – 138 km2 by the year 2085 – less than 7 % of currently available suitable habitat. Results also indicate that the amount of golden mantella habitat falling within protected areas decreases by 86 % over the same period. We recommend research to ascertain future viability and the feasibility of expanding protection to newly identified potential sites. This information can then be used in future conservation actions such as habitat restoration, translocations, re introductions or the siting of further wildlife corridors or protected areas.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Banana Based Cropping Pattern in District Thatta, Sindh Province of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 103-109
Author(s):  
Ghulam Nabi Dahri ◽  
Basit Ali Talpur ◽  
Ghulam Mustafa Nangraj ◽  
Tehmina Mangan ◽  
Muhammad Hassan Channa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Cropping Pattern ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
Change Effect ◽  
Climate Change Effect ◽  
The Impact

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to changing climatic conditions. While a head facing the risk of food and nutrition insecurity. It is a land of variety both in terms of resources and people. The study focused on the district Thatta and its coastal district of Sindh province, to determine the complex problem-related climate change and effects; the district has received due to various climatic factors. Banana is known to be the most important fruit crop of Pakistan. It is cultivated over 34,800 hectares with the production of 154,800 tons. It is primarily grown in Sindh province because the soil and climatic conditions favour cultivating fruits and vegetables, further, this province shares 87 percent in the cultivation of the banana crop. The study aims to carry out the impact of climate change effect on banana cropping patterns. The present study aimed to observe the socio-economic characteristics of the farmers, review the present status of banana production in Sindh province, explore the status of cropping pattern in the study area, and examine climate change effect on banana cropping pattern, by using primary as well as secondary data. In Sindh province, Banana is cultivated in three main districts among them, Thatta shares 17.6 percent in the area and 17.1 percent production in the overall province. Furthermore, farmer’s perception regarding climate change, the majority proportion of farmers agreed temperature has raised and cropping pattern practices also effected and changed, while water-related issues are rising day by day in the study area.

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