Estimation of Speciation Times Under the Multispecies Coalescent
AbtractMotivationThe coalescent model is now widely accepted as a necessary component for phylogenetic inference from genome-scale data. However, because model-based analysis under the coalescent is computationally prohibitive, a variety of inferential frameworks and corresponding algorithms have been proposed for estimation of species-level phylogenies and the associated parameters, including the speciation times and effective population sizes.ResultsWe consider the problem of estimating the timing of speciation events along a phylogeny in a coalescent framework. We propose a pseudolikelihood method for estimation of these speciation times under a model of DNA sequence evolution for which exact site pattern probabilities can be computed. We demonstrate that the pseudolikelihood estimates are statistically consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, and we show how this result can be used to estimate their asymptotic variance. We also provide a more computationally efficient estimator of the asymptotic variance based on the nonparametric bootstrap. We evaluate the performance of our method using simulation and by application to an empirical dataset on gibbons.