Valuing guarantees in a BOT infrastructure project

2004 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 395-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Flow Model ◽  
Financial Impact ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Contingent Liabilities ◽  
Road Project ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Government

Host governments often provide guarantees in build‐operate‐transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects to attract private sector investors. Problems arise because the governments often do not know the full extent of contingent liabilities when issuing guarantees, and because they account and record guarantee costs only when guarantees come due. This paper discusses the guarantees' financial impact from the perspectives of the government and the project sponsor. A typical Indonesian BOT toll road project is taken as the case study. Stochastic simulation using Latin Hypercube technique is applied on the cash flow model with and without guarantees. Several types of guarantees including minimum revenue guarantee, maximum interest rate guarantee, debt guarantee, tariff guarantee and minimum traffic guarantee are discussed. Simulation results reveal that guarantees can reduce risk but are not free of cost. If compared with equivalent subsidies, however, some guarantees can be more effective in lessening the extent of project risk.

scholarly journals NON-COMPETITION GUARANTEED VALUE AND EFFECT ON THE TOLL ROAD PROJECT / BEKONKURENCINĖS VERTĖS IR JŲ ĮTAKA MOKAMOSIOS AUTOMAGISTRALĖS PROJEKTUI / ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ЦЕННОСТЬ, ОБЕСПЕЧИВАЮЩАЯ НЕКОНКУРЕНТНОСТЬ, И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА ПРОЕКТ ПЛАТНОЙ АВТОМАГИСТРАЛИ

Transport ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 178-184
Author(s):  
Guo-Xing Zhang ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
Ju-E Guo ◽  
Guorong Chai ◽  
Peng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Investment Incentives ◽  
Competitive Condition ◽  
Incentive Effect ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Road Project ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Measurement Approach

A non-competition guarantee has been widely used for financing the toll road project. However, to our best knowledge, there seems to be no research about the value and incentive effect of the non-competition guarantee. In the competitive and non-competitive condition respectively, this paper constructs the models of investment value and investment threshold by adopting the option game theory and measurement approach. The results of theory derivation indicate that the non-competition guarantee plays a strong role in investment incentives by reducing investment threshold. The simulation results indicate that the non-guaranteed value increases as the expected growth rate of traffic flow increases, and decreases as volatility increases. Santrauka Nekonkurencingumas plačiai naudojamas mokamųjų automagistralių projektams finansuoti. Tačiau žinoma, kad nėra pakankamai atlikta tyrimų bekonkurencinių verčių srityje. Atsižvelgiant į konkurencingumo ir nekonkurencingumo sąlygas bei remiantis galimybių teorija ir patobulintų skaičiavimų teorija (measurement approach), straipsnyje sudaryti investuojamos vertės ir investicinės ribos modeliai. Teorijų taikymo rezultatai rodo, kad konkurencijos bekonkurencinės vertės yra svarbios skatinant investicijas ir taip mažinant investicijų ribas. Modeliavimo rezultatai rodo, kad bekonkurencinės vertės didėja kartu su eismo srauto tempais, o mažėja – didėjant nepastovumui. Резюме Понятие неконкурентоспособности широко используется при финансировании проектов платных автомагистралей. Известно, что еще не достаточно исследованы проблемы в области инвестиционной ценности, обеспечивающей неконкурентность. В статье представлены модели инвестируемой стоимости и уровня инвестиций с учетом условий конкурентоспособности и неконкурентоспособности, а также на основе теории возможностей и метода измерений (measurement approach). Результаты применения теории показали, что инвестиционная ценность, обеспечивающая неконкурентность, важна для привлечения инвестиций с уменьшением их уровня. Результаты моделирования показали, что инвестиционная ценность, обеспечивающая неконкурентность, увеличивается с увеличением транспортного потока и уменьшается с увеличением непостоянства.

scholarly journals Analysis of Operational Delay and Additional Investment Costs, As An Investment Consideration

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (02) ◽  
pp. 168-182
Author(s):  
Dina Yunanda ◽  
Christiono Utomo ◽  
Maranatha Wijayaningtyas
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Word Of Mouth ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
The Other ◽  
Brand Trust ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Road Project ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose: This paper aims to Analysis of Operational Delay and Additional Investment Costs, As an Investment Consideration: Case in Malang Pandaan Toll Road. Design/methodology/approach: The method used is statistic-descriptive and the design used is cross sectional. Findings: 2 hypotheses are while the other is accepted. Research limitations/implications: Variables considered in this study are electronic word of mouth, brand image, brand trust, and interest in saving. The scope of work of the Pandaan Malang Toll Road project has a length of 38 + 488 km, passing through two regions in Figure 1. Practical implications: Results show that from the 2 hypotheses proposed. Originality/value: This paper is original. Paper type: This paper can be categorized as a case study.

Preparation and scheduling system of emergency supplies in disasters

Kybernetes ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 423-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Jia ◽  
Xie Kefan
Keyword(s):  
Petri Net ◽  
Simulation System ◽  
Workflow Model ◽  
Preparation Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Disaster Area ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Government

Purpose – After the occurrence of a disaster, emergency supplies should arrive at disaster area in the shortest possible time. Therefore, it is of pivotal importance to speed up the preparation and scheduling process. In other words, only when the preparation process and scheduling process coordinate well, could the emergency supplies arrive at disaster area in time. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to explore a method that can strengthen the coordination in various kinds of situations. Design/methodology/approach – The paper first elaborates the preparation and scheduling process of emergency supplies in disasters. Then, it establishes a workflow simulation system of the emergency supplies preparation and scheduling based on Petri Net. Afterward, the paper proposes a simplified simulation system of emergency supplies preparation and scheduling which can be employed in actual emergency response. Finally, the paper takes China Lushan Earthquake for a case study. Findings – By employing the simulation system proposed by this paper, decision makers can simulate the whole emergency supplies preparation and scheduling process, which can help them find a method that can optimize the current process. Specifically, by analyzing the simulation results, the government can obtain conclusions as follows. First, whether the preparation and scheduling process of emergency supplies can speed up or not. Second, which part of the process should be improved to realize the acceleration. Third, the workload of the staffs and experts. Fourth, whether it is necessary to add staffs or experts to work in parallel. Originality/value – This paper proposes a system that can coordinate the preparation process and scheduling process of emergency supplies in disaster. Then, it employs the Petri Net based workflow model to do simulation. The simulation results show that the system designed is reasonable and can be used in practical decision making on the preparation and scheduling of emergency supplies.

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI WAKAF ISTIBDAL PADA MUSHOLA WAKAF (STUDI KASUS PEMBANGUNAN TOL GEMPOL-PASURUAN SEKSI I DAN SEKSI II)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Yoga Rizki Prihanto ◽  
Siti Inayatul Faizah
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Study Strategy ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Planning Implementation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Administrative Licensing

The background of this research is the existence of massive infrastructure development by the government, one of which is the construction of the Gempol-Pasuruan Toll Road. The construction process of the Gempol-Pasuruan Toll Road passes through the land and buildings owned by residents and including to waqf land. One of the waqf land affected by the construction process of the Gempol-Pasuruan Toll Road is the Al-Mukmin Mosque. This phenomenon encourages researchers to conduct research that discusses how the waqf istibdal process, both in terms of changes in waqf assets and in the administration process of licensing. This study uses a qualitative approach with a case study strategy. Data is collected through interviews with relevant parties and documentation of related documents. The results of this study indicate that the process of changing the waqf assets of the Al-Mukmin Mosque is in accordance with statutory procedures. The waqf istibdal process consists of the process of changing the waqf property and the administrative licensing process. The process of changing waqf property consists of planning, implementation, coordination between toll management and nazir, searching for replacement land, replacing land replacement processes, and the process of building a new mosque. The second process consists of a licensing process that starts from nazir, the Office of the Ministry of Religion Pasuruan Regency, and the Regional Office of the Ministry of Religion of East Java.Keywords: waqf, waqf istibdal, mosque, Gempol-Pasuruan Toll Road

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI WAKAF ISTIBDAL DALAM PEMBEBASAN LAHAN PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL (Studi Kasus Pembangunan Jalan Tol Surabaya-Mojokerto)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 1924
Author(s):  
Fikri Ariza Achmad ◽  
Irham Zaki
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Administrative Process ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Government

The background of this research is the existence of massive infrastructure development by the government, one of which is the construction of the Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road. The construction process of the Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road passes through the land and buildings owned by residents, and including to waqf land. One of the waqf land affected by the construction process of the Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road is the Sabilun Najah Mosque. This phenomenon encourages researchers to raise research that discusses how the waqf istibdal process, both in terms of changes in waqf assets and in the administration process of licensing. This study uses a qualitative approach with a case study strategy. Data collection is done through interview techniques with relevant parties and related documents. The data analysis technique used is making explanations. The results of this study indicate that the process of changing the waqf assets of the Sabilun Najah Mosque runs in accordance with statutory procedures. The waqf istibdal process consists of the process of changing the waqf property and the licensing administrative process. The process of changing waqf property consists of planning, implementation, coordination between toll management and nazir, searching for replacement land, replacing land replacement processes, and the process of building a new mosque. The second process consists of a licensing process that starts from nazir, the Office of the Ministry of Religion Sidoarjo Regency, and the Regional Office of the Ministry of Religion of East Java.Keywords: implementation, waqf, waqf istibdal, mosque, land acquisition, toll road, Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road

scholarly journals Evaluating Ancillary Business Scale for PPP-BOT Projects: A Social Housing BOT Case in Taiwan

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1415
Author(s):  
Chih-Yao Huang ◽  
Ren-Jye Dzeng
Keyword(s):  
Social Housing ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Scale Ratio ◽  
The Government ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
The Right ◽  
Year 2000

Due to budgetary constraints, the government releases the right to ancillary business development for private investors to increase profits in PPP projects. However, the ancillary business scale is not specified in the regulations, and there is little relevant research on modeling the scale. Thus, our research aims to create a model with mathematical analysis to evaluate the ancillary business scale. The model is constructed based on the discounted cash flow model to calculate the ancillary business scale attracting private investors with a case study of a social housing project. For this case, the calculated ancillary business minimum scale (ratio of ancillary business to project in total floor area) based on the 7-year (2009–2016) and 17-year (2000–2016) data are 30.81% and 52.79%, respectively; neither is able to meet the scale listed in the tender condition regulated by the government, i.e., 25%. Moreover, this study performs a sensitivity analysis on the expected rate of return and rent discount of the case. The government needs to raise the proportion of ancillary businesses or to increase the rent of social housing to successfully attract private investors.

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