The impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity, and volatility in agricultural commodity markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 571-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Volkenand ◽  
Guenther Filler ◽  
Martin Odening
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Order Imbalance ◽  
New Information ◽  
Agricultural Futures ◽  
Best Offer ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity and price volatility in agricultural futures markets on an intraday basis. The authors examine whether order imbalance is more powerful to explain variations in asset prices compared to other indicators of trading activity, particularly trading volume.Design/methodology/approachUsing Chicago Mercantile Exchange best bid best offer data, the impact of order imbalance is analyzed via regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for corn, wheat, soy, live cattle and lean hogs in March 2008 and March 2016.FindingsResults confirm the positive relation between order imbalance and returns as well as between order imbalance and price volatility as suggested by market microstructure models. Order imbalance, however, does not generally outperform trading volume as an explanatory variable.Practical implicationsFor some contracts, returns can be predicted using lagged order imbalance. This offers the opportunity to derive profitable trading strategies.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between order imbalance and returns, liquidity and volatility for agricultural commodity futures on an intraday basis, accounting for the increased trading volume and for the high speed at which new information enters the market in an electronic trading environment.

Impacts of high-speed railway on the industrial pollution emissions in China

Kybernetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (11) ◽  
pp. 2713-2735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Fan ◽  
Yingzhi Xu ◽  
Yongqing Nan ◽  
Baoli Li ◽  
Haiya Cai
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Industrial Pollution ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Central Cities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pollution Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of high-speed railway (HSR) on industrial pollution emissions using the data for 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach The research method used in this paper is the multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model, which is an effective policy effect assessment method. To further address the issue of endogeneity, the DID integrated with the propensity score matching (PSM-DID) approach is employed to eliminate the potential self-selection bias. Findings The results show that the HSR has significantly reduced industrial pollution emissions, which is validated by several robustness tests. Compared with peripheral cities, HSR exerts a greater impact on industrial pollution emissions in central cities. In addition, the mechanism test reveals that the optimised allocation of inter-city industries is an important channel for HSR to mitigate industrial pollution emissions, and this is closely related to the location of HSR stations. Originality/value Previous studies have paid more attention to evaluating the economic effects of HSR, however, most of these studies overlook its environmental effects. Consequently, the impact of HSR on industrial pollution emissions is led by using multi-period DID models in this paper, in which the environmental effects are measured. The results of this paper can provide a reference for the pollution reduction policies and also the coordinated development of economic growth and environmental quality.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

Could new information influence attitudes to foods supplemented with edible insects?

2017 ◽  
Vol 119 (9) ◽  
pp. 2027-2039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Barsics ◽  
Rudy Caparros Megido ◽  
Yves Brostaux ◽  
Catherine Barsics ◽  
Christophe Blecker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Edible Insects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Edible Insect ◽  
Information Session ◽  
Organoleptic Characteristics ◽  
New Information ◽  
Gender Information ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Broader acceptance of entomophagy (i.e. human consumption of insects) will depend on factors that impact consumers’ perceptions of edible insects. The purpose of this paper is to examine how a broad-based information session would affect consumers’ perceptions and attitudes about an edible insect product. Design/methodology/approach During a taste testing session, preceded or followed by an information session about entomophagy, participants rated the organoleptic characteristics of two bread samples on nine-point hedonic scales. The two bread samples were identical, though one was faux-labelled as containing an insect product. Findings Generalised linear model (GLM) analysis showed effects of gender, information session exposure, entomophagy familiarity, and entomophagy experience on participants’ ratings of the samples. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney ranked sum tests showed that appearance, flavour, and overall liking were significantly better rated for the bread sample labelled as insect free by participants who attended the presentation a priori. Potential ways to improve information content and delivery in favour of encouraging dietary shifts are discussed. Practical implications This study shows that information about insect-based products could change consumers’ perceptions of such products. The results provide clues regarding how the food industry can adapt communication for target audiences. Originality/value Actual edible insect products were not used in this study. Paradoxically, it is the first to show the impact of an information session on the acceptability of edible insect products, by revealing participants’ perceptual expectations.

scholarly journals Examining partial proportional odds model in analyzing severity of high-speed railway accident

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wang ◽  
Yinghan Wang ◽  
Yichuan Peng ◽  
Jian John Lu
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Proportional Odds Model ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Proportional Odds ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Severity Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Partial Proportional Odds Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The operation safety of the high-speed railway has been widely concerned. Due to the joint influence of the environment, equipment, personnel and other factors, accidents are inevitable in the operation process. However, few studies focused on identifying contributing factors affecting the severity of high-speed railway accidents because of the difficulty in obtaining field data. This study aims to investigate the impact factors affecting the severity of the general high-speed railway. Design/methodology/approach A total of 14 potential factors were examined from 475 data. The severity level is categorized into four levels by delay time and the number of subsequent trains that are affected by the accident. The partial proportional odds model was constructed to relax the constraint of the parallel line assumption. Findings The results show that 10 factors are found to significantly affect accident severity. Moreover, the factors including automation train protection (ATP) system fault, platform screen door and train door fault, traction converter fault and railway clearance intrusion by objects have an effect on reducing the severity level. On the contrary, the accidents caused by objects hanging on the catenary, pantograph fault, passenger misconducting or sudden illness, personnel intrusion of railway clearance, driving on heavy rain or snow and train collision against objects tend to be more severe. Originality/value The research results are very useful for mitigating the consequences of high-speed rail accidents.

scholarly journals Revisiting the relationship between formal planning process and planning effectiveness

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 1016-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Elbanna ◽  
Tamer H. Elsharnouby
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Organizational Capabilities ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to address a timely research question by clarifying whether formal planning is a worthy approach for hotels. In so doing, the authors developed a theoretical model that extends prior research by exploring how the formal planning process influences organizational capabilities and decision-making style. The model also examines the impact of the three identified factors on planning effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from 175 hotels located in United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar and hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM). Findings The study concludes that the practice of formal planning in the tourism sector does matter and both organizational capabilities and decision-making style are important factors in predicting planning effectiveness. Research limitations/implications Generalizations to organizations operating in other sectors, such as manufacturing or government sectors, should be drawn cautiously. Practical implications Taking into account oil price volatility and serious political crises in the region, this study provides several insights to hotel managers into how the formal planning process can influence planning effectiveness. Originality/value The findings enrich the debate on the role of formal planning in the tourism sector, which has been relatively devoid of similar studies.

Intraday analysis of regulation change in microstructure: evidence from an emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyup Kadioglu
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Lunch Break ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Call Auction ◽  
Regulation Change ◽  
Intraday Volatility ◽  
Continuous Trading ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mixture Of Distribution Hypothesis

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of simultaneously replacing both midday single-price call auction and lunch break with multi-price continuous trading on intraday volatility–volume patterns as well as the intraday volatility–volume nexus.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis utilises 150 m tick-by-tick transaction data related to 333 stocks traded on Borsa Istanbul Equity Market covering a period of 2 months prior to and following the change. In addition to graphic comparisons, the study uses difference in mean tests, panel-fixed generalized least squares (GLS), panel-random GLS and random-effects linear models with AR(1) disturbance regression estimations.FindingsThe results show that intraday volatility and trading volume form an inverse J-shape and are positively correlated. It is observed that the implementation of the regulation change decreased intraday volatility and increased trading volume. Additionally, the results indicate a negative volatility–liquidity and a positive volume–liquidity relationship, supporting the mixture of distribution hypothesis.Research limitations/implicationsEnhanced market efficiency provides greater opportunity for investment and risk management. Investors can benefit from the findings on the intraday volatility–volume nexus, which is an indicator of informed trading, and regulatory authorities can use volume to oversight volatility.Originality/valueThis very rare regulation change of the simultaneous replacement of the lunch break and midday call auction with continuous trading is investigated in the context of intraday volume and volatility. This study also expands upon some important findings on the volume–volatility nexus for the Turkish Stock Market.

Last hour momentum in the Chinese stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Order Imbalance ◽  
Economic News ◽  
News Releases ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Exchange Traded Fund

PurposeTo capture the last hour momentum over the intraday session, the authors develop a trading strategy for the exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is effective because of the T+0 trading rule. This strategy generates annualized excess return of 9.673%.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors identify a last hour momentum pattern in which the sixth (seventh) half-hour return predicts the next half-hour return by employing high frequency 2012–2017 data from the China Securities Index (CSI) 300 and its ETF.FindingsOverall, both the predictability and the trading strategy are statistically and economically significant. In addition, the strategy performs more strongly on high volatility days, high trading volume days, high order-imbalance days and days without economic news releases than on other days.Originality/valueNoise trading, late-information trading, infrequent rebalancing and disposition effects from retail investors may account for this phenomenon.

Does opening high-speed railways affect the cost of debt financing? A quasi-natural experiment

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-496
Author(s):  
Hongling Guo ◽  
Keping Wu
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Cost Of Debt ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Cost ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how opening high-speed railways affects the cost of debt financing based on China's background.Design/methodology/approachUsing panel data on Chinese listed firms from 2008 to 2017, this study constructs a quasi-natural experiment and adopts a difference-in-difference model with multiple time periods to empirically examine the relation between the high-speed railway openings and debt financing cost.FindingsOur results show that opening high-speed railways reduces the cost of debt financing, and this negative correlation is more significant in non-state firms, firms with weaker internal control, and firms that hire non-Big Four auditors. Besides, we explore the impact mechanisms and find that opening high-speed railways improves analyst attention, institutional investor participation, and information disclosure quality, which in turn lowers the cost of debt financing.Research limitations/implicationsThe results imply that the opening of high-speed railways helps to alleviate the information asymmetry and adverse selection between firms and creditors and ultimately reduces the cost of corporate debt financing.Practical implicationsThis paper can inform firms and stakeholders about the impact of opening high-speed railways on debt financing cost: it improves the information environment, reduces the geographical location restrictions of debt financing, ensures the reasonable pricing of corporate debt, and thus promotes the healthy and sound development of the debt market.Originality/valueThis paper provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for the impact of infrastructure construction on the information environment of the debt market in China, which enriches the research on the “high-speed railway economy.” In addition, as an exogenous event, the opening of high-speed railways instantly shortens the time distance between firms and external stakeholders, which gives us a natural environment to conduct empirical research, thus providing a new perspective for financial research on firms' geographical location.

Returns and volume

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-473
Author(s):  
Panos Fousekis
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causal Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The relationship between returns and trading volume is central in financial economics because it has both a theoretical interest and important practical implications with regard to the structure of financial markets and the level of speculation activity. The aim of this study is to provide new insights into the association between returns and trading volume by investigating their kernel (instantaneous) causality. The empirical analysis relies on time series data from 22 commodities futures markets (agricultural, energy and metals) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Non-parametric (local linear) regressions are applied to daily data on returns and on trading activity; generalized correlation measures are computed and their differences are subjected to formal statistical testing. Findings The results suggest that raw returns are likely to kernel-cause volume and volume is likely to kernel-cause price volatility. The patterns of causal order are generally in line with what is stipulated by the relevant theory, they provide guidance for model specification and they appear to explain the empirical evidence on temporal (lag-lead) causality between the same pairs of variables obtained in earlier works. Originality/value The concept of kernel causality has very recently become a part of the toolkit for econometric/statistical analysis. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the notion of kernel (instantaneous) causality to provide new evidence on a relationship that is of keen interest to investors, professional economists and policymakers.

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